A Somewhat Realistic View of the Near Future for Electric Vehicles Worldwide

[RichieRich216 + 454]

This is 2008 all over again where in the past you would have hundreds of millions of dollars in a budget and it would be for bidden to use the word billion than they did, and no one would’ve ever conceived of using the word trillion and now they have to the tune of almost 32, trillion.

[RichieRich216 + 454]

3 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

 I can say that with 100 percent certainty because even if it somehow got passed it would just be vetoed by Biden and there is absolutely no way that Congress can overcome a veto on the bill. I do suspect the House will try and tag it onto the debt ceiling and hold the country hostage. That will be hilarious because all rich Republican backers will get financially slaughtered if we default. So no that isn't going to pass either. All the Republicans can do is whine and cry and stomp their little feet.

 

3 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

 I can say that with 100 percent certainty because even if it somehow got passed it would just be vetoed by Biden and there is absolutely no way that Congress can overcome a veto on the bill. I do suspect the House will try and tag it onto the debt ceiling and hold the country hostage. That will be hilarious because all rich Republican backers will get financially slaughtered if we default. So no that isn't going to pass either. All the Republicans can do is whine and cry and stomp their little feet.

Anything can happen in Washington Congress can keep sending the legislation up. If you get stars in the Senate it could get the road by the president and they play Ring around the Rosie all over again. Until it gets so many other piles of bills above it it’ll be completely forgot about.

 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

5 minutes ago, RichieRich216 said:

 

Anything can happen in Washington Congress can keep sending the legislation up. If you get stars in the Senate it could get the road by the president and they play Ring around the Rosie all over again. Until it gets so many other piles of bills above it it’ll be completely forgot about.

 

Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., is defending money for the IRS (Internal Revenue Service) in the inflation Reduction Act

So no it isn't passing the Senate.

[RichieRich216 + 454]

That particular senator is up for reelection, and he is pissed off, his entire supporters, additionally it’s because that vote and his lack of defense of fossil fuels he’s gonna be voted out!

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

2 minutes ago, RichieRich216 said:

That particular senator is up for reelection, and he is pissed off, his entire supporters, additionally it’s because that vote and his lack of defense of fossil fuels he’s gonna be voted out!

But that is next congress.

[RichieRich216 + 454]

I freely admit that I am a Republican been all my life however, I believe that our founding fathers created an exceptional country 

but their one mistake was not putting turmoil that’s for congressional numbers because back then they all died before they were 45 or 10 to DC ran their term in home. They did not do it as stick in there for 40 years take all the lobby money you can grab all the perks you can be bribed and bribe others, which is truly saddening.

[RichieRich216 + 454]

Blame all grammar and misspelled words on Steve Jobs iPhone 15 voice to text still sucks!

[RichieRich216 + 454]

21 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

But that is next congress.

That’s very true so he’s got two years to either milk the lobbying groups or milk, the system, or try to go back to his original platform. He got a month-long and make amends next two years nothing is going to get done and the proof is in just this week Biden went to the border Elpaso Eagle Pass and what do they do they completely clean and sterilize the entire route of what it was and has been to this neat clean looking parade route instead of what was 24 hours before we got there

 

 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

39 minutes ago, RichieRich216 said:

That’s very true so he’s got two years to either milk the lobbying groups or milk, the system, or try to go back to his original platform. He got a month-long and make amends next two years nothing is going to get done and the proof is in just this week Biden went to the border Elpaso Eagle Pass and what do they do they completely clean and sterilize the entire route of what it was and has been to this neat clean looking parade route instead of what was 24 hours before we got there

 

 

Uh I think you are forgetting that the Republicans have to actually win the election.

[RichieRich216 + 454]

With the way Democrats are imploding this Country will happen!

[markslawson + 1,042]

22 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

No it is an exact indicator of new car sales and the projection is that 30% of the cars on the road in Germany will be electric in 2030.

Sorry to do this to you but no - the projection for 2030 in Germany is 24.4 per cent but that includes both plug in hybrids and fully electric. Guess where most of the growth will be? They had to change the projection because there was no way that EVs alone can get to that declared target. Remember we're talking about total on-road population, not sales. Plug in hybrids don't have anything like the problems of pure EVs, and still get some subsidies. Although foolish people will buy EVs, even in Aus as you point out - I was well aware of the stories you linked - they mainly seem do so as a second car for the bragging rights. Same thing happens in the US. Its not a revolution its a fad. Thanks for the discussion. Leave it with you.    

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

On 1/11/2023 at 4:35 PM, markslawson said:

Sorry to do this to you but no - the projection for 2030 in Germany is 24.4 per cent but that includes both plug in hybrids and fully electric. Guess where most of the growth will be? They had to change the projection because there was no way that EVs alone can get to that declared target. Remember we're talking about total on-road population, not sales. Plug in hybrids don't have anything like the problems of pure EVs, and still get some subsidies. Although foolish people will buy EVs, even in Aus as you point out - I was well aware of the stories you linked - they mainly seem do so as a second car for the bragging rights. Same thing happens in the US. Its not a revolution its a fad. Thanks for the discussion. Leave it with you.    

 Sorry to do this to you but In Europe BEV sales are increasing faster than PHEV and Australia is about to be inundated with EVs from China, including Tesla.

Germany- Of the 2022 total, BEVS were 470,600 units, up 32% on the year, while PHEV sales climbed 11% to 362,100 units, according to the VDA.

UK - BEV up 40.1%  PHEV down 11.5%

 

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

On 1/9/2023 at 6:33 PM, markslawson said:

This is an article from the Times in the UK, January 6, 2023. The original will be behind a pay wall so I've quoted it in full below. The author is not a happy EV owner.

The spark is gone — you’re better off walking than relying on useless, unreliable vehicles and chargers that never work

As I watch my family strike out on foot across the fields into driving rain and gathering darkness, my wife holding each child’s hand, our new year plans in ruins, while I do what I can to make our dead car safe before abandoning it a mile short of home, full of luggage on a country lane, it occurs to me not for the first time that if we are going to save the planet we will have to find another way. Because electric cars are not the answer.

Yes, it’s the Jaguar again. My doomed bloody £65,000 iPace that has done nothing but fail at everything it was supposed to do for more than two years now, completely dead this time, its lifeless corpse blocking the single-track road.

I can’t even roll it to a safer spot because it can’t be put in neutral. For when an electric car dies, it dies hard. And then lies there as big and grey and not-going-anywhere as the poacher-slain bull elephant I once saw rotting by a roadside in northern Kenya. Just a bit less smelly.

Not that this is unusual. Since I bought my eco dream car in late 2020, in a deluded Thunbergian frenzy, it has spent more time off the road than on it, beached at the dealership for months at a time on account of innumerable electrical calamities, while I galumph around in the big diesel “courtesy cars” they send me under the terms of the warranty.

But this time I don’t want one. And I don’t want my own car back either. I have asked the guys who sold it to me to sell it again, as soon as it is fixed, to the first mug who walks into the shop. Because I am going back to petrol while there is still time.

And if the government really does ban new wet fuel cars after 2030, then we will eventually have to go back to horses. Because the electric vehicle industry is no readier to get a family home from Cornwall at Christmas time (as I was trying to do) than it is to fly us all to Jupiter. The cars are useless, the infrastructure is not there and you’re honestly better off walking. Even on the really long journeys. In fact, especially on the long journeys. The short ones they can just about manage. It’s no wonder Tesla shares are down 71 per cent. It’s all a huge fraud. And, for me, it’s over.

Yet the new owner of my “preloved” premium electric vehicle, fired with a messianic desire to make a better world for his children, will not know this. He will be delighted with his purchase and overjoyed to find there are still six months of warranty left, little suspecting that once that has expired — and with it the free repairs and replacement cars for those long spells off road — he will be functionally carless.

He will be over the moon to learn that it has “a range of up to 292 miles”. No need to tell him what that really means is “220 miles”. Why electric carmakers are allowed to tell these lies is a mystery to me. As it soon will be to him.

Although for the first few days he won’t worry especially. He’ll think he can just nip into a fuel station and charge it up again. Ho ho ho. No need to tell him that two out of three roadside chargers in this country are broken or busy at any one time. Or that the built-in “find my nearest charge point” function doesn’t work, has never worked, and isn’t meant to work.

Or that apps like Zap-Map don’t work either because the chargers they send you to are always either busy or broken or require a membership card you don’t have or an app you can’t download because there’s no 5G here, in the middle of nowhere, where you will now probably die.

Or that the Society of Motor Manufacturers said this week that only 23 new chargers are being installed nationwide each day, of the 100 per day that were promised (as a proud early adopter, I told myself that charging would become easier as the network grew, but it hasn’t grown, while the number of e-drivers has tripled, so it’s actually harder now than it was two years ago).

There are, of course, plus sides to electric ownership. Such as the camaraderie when we encounter each other, tired and weeping at yet another service station with only two chargers, one of which still has the “this fault has been reported” sign on it from when you were here last August, and the other is of the measly 3kWh variety, which means you will have to spend the night in a Travelodge while your stupid drum lazily inhales enough juice to get home.

Together, in the benighted charging zone, we leccy drivers laugh about what fools we are and drool over the diesel hatchbacks nonchalantly filling up across the way (“imagine getting to a fuel station and knowing for sure you will be able to refuel!”) and talk in the hour-long queue at Exeter services about the petrol car we will buy as soon as we get home.

We filled up there last week on the way back from Cornwall, adding two hours to our four-hour journey, by which time Esther wasn’t speaking to me. She’s been telling me to get rid of the iPace since it ruined last summer’s holidays in both Wales and Devon (“If you won’t let us fly any more, at least buy a car that can get us to the places we’re still allowed to go!”).

But I kept begging her to give me one last chance, as if I’d refused to give up a mistress, rather than a dull family car. Until this time, a couple of miles from home, when a message flashed up on the dash: “Assisted braking not available — proceed with caution.” Then: “Steering control unavailable.”

And then, as I inched off the dual carriageway at our turnoff, begging it to make the last mile, children weeping at the scary noises coming from both car and father: “Gearbox fault detected.” CLUNK. WHIRRR. CRACK.

And dead. Nothing. Poached elephant. I called Jaguar Assist (there is a button in the roof that does it directly — most useful feature on the car) who told me they could have a mechanic there in four hours (who would laugh and say, “Can’t help you, pal. You’ve got a software issue there. I’m just a car mechanic. And this isn’t a car, it’s a laptop on wheels.”)

So Esther and the kids headed for home across the sleety wastes, a vision of post-apocalyptic misery like something out of Cormac McCarthy, while I saw out 2022 waiting for a tow-truck. Again.

But don’t let that put you off. I see in the paper that electric car sales are at record levels and production is struggling to keep up with demand. So why not buy mine? It’s clean as a whistle and boasts super-low mileage. After all, it’s hardly been driven . . .
 

 

This tells it all.....EVs are for the birds.

[markslawson + 1,042]

13 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Sorry to do this to you but In Europe BEV sales are increasing faster than PHEV and Australia is about to be inundated with EVs from China, including Tesla.

Germany- Of the 2022 total, BEVS were 470,600 units, up 32% on the year, while PHEV sales climbed 11% to 362,100 units, according to the VDA.

UK - BEV up 40.1%  PHEV down 11.5%

I made the mistake of looking at your stuff. Again I have to work to overcome the misunderstandings. We were talking about on-road remember? There are 48 million cars on the road in Germany. Now go and look at the sales figures you quote. Well over 30 per cent in 2022 was for various forms of hybrid as opposed to the 16.6 per cent for BEVs.  As I said before three is no way BEVs are going to get to the target for ON ROAD cars mentioned. The bulk of electric cars will be hybrid for the good reason that they don't have anything like the same problems as pure EVs. They make considerably more sense. As for the UK here is an  except for a story in the Daily Mail of January 11. 

"Makers of electric cars are slowing down UK production as the vehicles are too expensive for many motorists.

It is now expected that the UK will produce 280,000 fully electric cars and vans in 2025, down from previous estimates of 360,000.

The forecast means only a quarter of car output will be electric within the next two years, lower than prior forecasts of more than a third.

In its latest report, the Advanced Propulsion Centre, which provides taxpayer funding to makers of zero-emissions vehicles, said the ‘uncertain economy’ was expected to push drivers towards cheaper car models for a longer period.

It added that the phenomenon was not unique to the UK, with electric vehicle production across Europe predicted to be 12 million, 1 million less than previous estimates.

The slowdown comes as prospective buyers see their budgets hammered by the cost of living squeeze and inflation."
 

Anyway, that's enough of that. Really leave it with you this time.  

   

[RichieRich216 + 454]

On 1/8/2023 at 10:02 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

Jay, on a previous post on defending IRS:

In a letter addressed Friday to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen implored Congress to raise the debt ceiling and said the government will reach its borrowing limit on Thursday – the current limit is around $31.4 trillion. To avoid a default, the department will be reallocating federal funding to continue paying the government’s debts.

The department is unable to provide a precise estimate on how long the U.S. can keep paying its debts before Congress needs to raise its borrowing limit, but Yellen wrote that it is unlikely the measures “will be exhausted before early June.”

As I stated funded bills a die by a thousand cuts.

[specinho + 440]

On 1/7/2023 at 7:36 AM, markslawson said:

Although the figures sound impressive, as another poster points out and as Ron seems to agree (Richie Rich please read the posts before commenting - there is also no need for rudeness) the sales mentioned are small stuff. A closer look at the figures also show that more than half the sales are in China where such cars are far cheaper than they are in Europe and the US.  EV prices have risen in the West, but in China they cost less than petrol cars and there are still subsidies. As the air quality in Chinese cities is way worse than in the West buying an EV also make a lot more sense. However, as Ron notes, freight transport still consumes a lot of  oil (about half of total consumption in the US, as I understand it) and its not being electrified. No end of oil, no net zero. All that said, the pandemic resulted in a notable reduction in oil consumption. Activists should enjoy that victory while its lasts.  

The smallest car design might have gotten the idea from electric golf carts used, with a common price tag of 5k...... 'o'   'n'

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

On 1/13/2023 at 3:31 PM, markslawson said:

I made the mistake of looking at your stuff. Again I have to work to overcome the misunderstandings. We were talking about on-road remember? There are 48 million cars on the road in Germany. Now go and look at the sales figures you quote. Well over 30 per cent in 2022 was for various forms of hybrid as opposed to the 16.6 per cent for BEVs.  As I said before three is no way BEVs are going to get to the target for ON ROAD cars mentioned. The bulk of electric cars will be hybrid for the good reason that they don't have anything like the same problems as pure EVs. They make considerably more sense. As for the UK here is an  except for a story in the Daily Mail of January 11. 

"Makers of electric cars are slowing down UK production as the vehicles are too expensive for many motorists.

It is now expected that the UK will produce 280,000 fully electric cars and vans in 2025, down from previous estimates of 360,000.

The forecast means only a quarter of car output will be electric within the next two years, lower than prior forecasts of more than a third.

In its latest report, the Advanced Propulsion Centre, which provides taxpayer funding to makers of zero-emissions vehicles, said the ‘uncertain economy’ was expected to push drivers towards cheaper car models for a longer period.

It added that the phenomenon was not unique to the UK, with electric vehicle production across Europe predicted to be 12 million, 1 million less than previous estimates.

The slowdown comes as prospective buyers see their budgets hammered by the cost of living squeeze and inflation."
 

Anyway, that's enough of that. Really leave it with you this time.  

   

You make the mistake of citing UK production figures when what matters is sales figures. All UK auto production is decreasing because of Brexit. EV sales continue to grow. Oh and you mixed the numbers up between UK and Germany but then you know best.

 

Edited January 26, 2023 by Jay McKinsey

[Ecocharger + 1,375]

Here is the reality of what is going on in the malfunctioning Green revolution....failure compounded upon failure, and dependent upon government handouts to stay afloat.

https://www.cityam.com/britishvolt-fall-into-administration-buyer-update/

"Britishvolt has collapsed into administration, in a hammer blow to Britain’s hopes of building its own electric vehicle industry, after last-ditch rescue talks collapsed with several investors.

The moves made the majority of its 300 staff redundant, with the battery start-up filing for administration after its board ultimately decided there were no viable bids to keep the company afloat.

The future of Britishvolt has been in doubt for months, after it failed to secure further Government funds last October to build its £3.8bn gigafactory in Northumberland."