Tesla’s Cobalt-Light Batteries Seen Providing Cost Advantage

[BlackTortoise + 103]

Tesla lead in battery technology gives it a cost advantage that may last for several years and help the U.S. electric-car maker face down an onslaught of new competition, according to new research from Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Although Musk is targeting a cell-level price of $100 per kw in 2018 and battery pack costs below that level within 2 years. BNEF doesn't expect average pack price to drop below $100 until 2025. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-04/tesla-s-cobalt-light-batteries-give-e-car-pioneer-cost-advantage

[Adam Varga + 123]

"if" tesla meet their goals they'll have a cost advantage for the foreseeable future.
They're just very unlikely to hit them using the same definition of cell and pack cost as other manufacturers, including r&d, yield adjustment and warranty costs.
Fortunately for many Tesla drivers, they'll keep their cars for a shorter period. The question is whether the used car buyers are educated enough to reject the risk of being bagholder for high deg later in Tesla life I guess. I certainly wouldn't buy a used Tesla...

[BlackTortoise + 103]

What I’m really curios about, now that we’re getting “all” these new long range EV’s is how well their batteries will hold up over time. Tesla uses cylindrical sells, while Jaguar, Mercedes and Audi uses pouch cells. Thermal characteristics and cell chemistry should differ enough to make it interesting to see how they hold up over time.

[Adam Varga + 123]

the cobalt-light part of the IP belongs to Panasonic, not Tesla. Having a supplier relationship with Panasonic is a current advantage to Tesla, but nothing inherent.

[Vlad Kovalenko + 115]

2 minutes ago, BlackTortoise said:

What I’m really curios about, now that we’re getting “all” these new long range EV’s is how well their batteries will hold up over time. Tesla uses cylindrical sells, while Jaguar, Mercedes and Audi uses pouch cells. Thermal characteristics and cell chemistry should differ enough to make it interesting to see how they hold up over time.

In theory pouch cells may be easier, but in practice vast amounts of money are being spent worldwide to make cylindrical cells cheaper for all the normal uses of batteries. It seems that Tesla is still able to take advantage of this accumulation of knowledge after all these years.

[Adam Varga + 123]

Always distinguish between pack level, module level, and cell level. $120/kWh at the cell level is no longer impressive nowadays, but $120/kWh at the pack level is. There's a lot of expensive stuff besides battery cells that goes into a fully assembled pack.