10 Incredible Facts about U.S. LNG

[Marina Schwarz + 1,576]

Will do.

[NickW + 2,714]

3 hours ago, Marina Schwarz said:

Tom, if nothing happens next week, I'll hold you personally responsible. So much popcorn awaits...

I don't really expect any superimmediate effect of the sanctions on Iran. They have had time to prepare. So has the oil market, common sense says though I wouldn't bank on common sense in this case. 

As regards the elections, whatever happens, it will be the Russian hackers, that's already boring.

@NickW, I remember a version of events that said the war in Syria was started precisely because of this pipeline. Unpleasantly plausible.

Quite possibly by Qatar but they have effectively switched sides having fallen out with KSA. Qatar has the money so the offer to build a pipeline through Iran, Iraq and Syria (The Shia Crescent) offering both pipeline access for Iran and transit fees for Iraq and Syria must appear quite attractive to all involved. 

I can see the potential impact on other gas exporters. Imagine the effect of 2-3 new 36 inch gas pipes arriving in Europe supplying some of the worlds cheapest gas. Good for Europe but it could be bye bye US / Aussie  LNG. 

On the issue of Iran - they are used to hardship unlike the  Gulf states so much more durable than their Arab neighbours. 

[Marina Schwarz + 1,576]

They have suffered more than their fair share, yes. Which doesn't make it any better for the ordinary Iranian, unfortunately.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

On 11/2/2018 at 3:17 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

Marina, in my opinion, all of the items I listed above are related, and are deliberately being pushed to the boiling point around the same time. 

Next week should prove to be tumultuous no matter how things end up shaking out.  But that's just my own opinion  (obviously I have a minority viewpoint, but that's nothing new).

Update, a day later.  I just ran across this, some weekend reading to chew on.

Also, it seems U.K. now wants a decision on Brexit the same day as U.S. midterm elections..

And to reiterate, I expect the oil & gas markets (and markets in general) to go bonkers next week.  Something is going to boil over next week.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

On 11/2/2018 at 5:52 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

That scenario would certainly help explain some of the current political machinations and skullduggery in the region.  Once again, a disasterous Middle East mixing of competing hydrocarbon exports and competing religious sects.  

Next week is probably going to go to 11 on the global political pressure cooker stovetop, with all sorts of spicy ingredients set to come to a roiling boil:

● U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil bite hard

● U.S. midterm elections complete with caravan / invasion from Central America - violent showdown of some sort will likely be played out live on TV

● Knives are out for MbS in Saudi Arabia, with Turkey among others egging on action after Khashoggi murder

I pretty much expect markets to go bonkers next week, at least until after the U.S. midterm elections are over with, Central America caravan dealt with somehow, MbS stays or goes, and the markets figure out that (in my opinion anyway) Iranian oil will likely just shift to the black markets, but not be removed from global markets.

Stock up on popcorn...

Ok, I wrote that  ^  comment last Friday morning, 2nd November.

Over here in Malaysia it's now 1 week later, the morning of Friday 9th November.

So, how did my predictions hold up for this week that is closing out?  A mixed bag, looks like to me...

● U.S. sanctions on Iran started up, and there seems to be ongoing chaos.

● U.S. midterm elections completed and dust settling.  The Caravan from Central America has mysteriously disappeared utterly from MSM news after the midterm elections.  Thankfully I was wrong, there were no violent showdowns broadcast on TV.

● MbS is fighting back tooth and nail with breathtakingly audacious disinformation.

● Iranian oil exports remain a mystery.

●  Markets have indeed gone bonkers this week.  Both regular markets and oil markets.

 

@Marina Schwarz  any feedback or alternate analysis?

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

2 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

●  Markets have indeed gone bonkers this week.  Both regular markets and oil markets.

The oil markets are having a meltdown.

Anyone recall a week or so ago the news that oil could hit $100?

Today the news is warning about $40 oil.

Oil prices indeed going bonkers this week.

[Marina Schwarz + 1,576]

3 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Ok, I wrote that  ^  comment last Friday morning, 2nd November.

Over here in Malaysia it's now 1 week later, the morning of Friday 9th November.

So, how did my predictions hold up for this week that is closing out?  A mixed bag, looks like to me...

● U.S. sanctions on Iran started up, and there seems to be ongoing chaos.

● U.S. midterm elections completed and dust settling.  The Caravan from Central America has mysteriously disappeared utterly from MSM news after the midterm elections.  Thankfully I was wrong, there were no violent showdowns broadcast on TV.

● MbS is fighting back tooth and nail with breathtakingly audacious disinformation.

● Iranian oil exports remain a mystery.

●  Markets have indeed gone bonkers this week.  Both regular markets and oil markets.

 

@Marina Schwarz  any feedback or alternate analysis?

OPEC's gone full schizo talking about cuts a week after they sang the "We will pump at max" song. Which also contributed to your last observation. Other than that, it's been kinda boring, but not in a bad way

[John Foote + 1,135]

And just this morning it's now in the open, Russia trying to sell oil in Euros.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-oil-sanctions-exclusive/exclusive-russia-clashes-with-western-oil-buyers-over-new-deals-as-sanctions-loom-idUSKCN1NE0FL

The caravan was always silly, The 11 million or so undocumented already in the US are a far bigger deal. Go after the employers and many will leave. Yet so many of them are a version of the imported workforce you see in oil rich Middle East countries doing the messy grunt work. The governments really acts and construction, and food services, and janitorial business will be massively short-staffed, with jobs most people won't take for what an undocumented gets paid. There was a reverse migration after the 2008/9 banking crises, so yes, many would leave.

MBS, nothing changed, except a bit more awareness by the outside world. Even five years ago I thought the obvious direction of the KSA was a brutal regime, but this is coming sooner than I expected. They aren't severely resource constrained yet. Western style governments are a mess, but the alternatives, far worse. IMHO.

I am in an export oriented, industrial capital equipment tool company business now. Real nervousness in the customer base economically. To us a GOT reference, winter is coming. However, my little niche is still booked up, running full capacity.