hemanthaa@mail.com + 64 May 2, 2023 China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, known as the PMI, tumbled alarmingly in April from 51.2% in March to 49.2% in April. Of course, the crude oil markets took it seriously, because oil price fell on Monday and the trend continues with no sign of abating the next day. Crude oil markets are not the only sector that got worried by the number; China tried to downplay it as well by focusing on the travelling sector instead, while letting the former eclipse the bad news. Chinese media reluctantly talks about the latest PMI, about something that they used to talk about freely in the past - in good or bad times. With the latest figure, it is clear that China's manufacturing activities show the sign of a contraction. In this context, it is highly unlikely that the crude oil markets are going to be revived by China alone, despite analysts' laser-sharp focus on a single country. I, for one, have been letting my thoughts in this forum dance to that tune for months! Please read more on this here: Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,063 DM May 2, 2023 5 hours ago, hemanthaa@mail.com said: China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, known as the PMI, tumbled alarmingly in April from 51.2% in March to 49.2% in April. Of course, the crude oil markets took it seriously, because oil price fell on Monday and the trend continues with no sign of abating the next day. Crude oil markets are not the only sector that got worried by the number; China tried to downplay it as well by focusing on the travelling sector instead, while letting the former eclipse the bad news. Chinese media reluctantly talks about the latest PMI, about something that they used to talk about freely in the past - in good or bad times. With the latest figure, it is clear that China's manufacturing activities show the sign of a contraction. In this context, it is highly unlikely that the crude oil markets are going to be revived by China alone, despite analysts' laser-sharp focus on a single country. I, for one, have been letting my thoughts in this forum dance to that tune for months! Please read more on this here: 2025 and EVs permanently take over with a corresponding annual decline in Oil consumption world wide. The only hope for Oil was China in 2023 and 2024 for one last Hurrah...... That chance at the one last Oil upswing is fading fast...... China is In a recession led by real estate and the dead cat bounce of the increase in PMI for the first few months was merely a bounce caused by easing of COVID lockdowns..... Party is over..... The Bear market in China is not going away anytime soon Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RichieRich$ + 65 RK May 2, 2023 Oil will not have any last Hurrahs, and you are only looking at the EV market, even in 2030, will not overtake the gas engine. Do you really think 100 million cars are just going away? When Obama had his Cash for Clunkers policy it was a complete disaster and almost wiped out the secondary use car market. Lastly going green / oil free is just a fantasy, explain all the hundreds of thousands of products that oil is used in manufacturing other than gasoline are going to be replaced exactly by going green, HOW? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,063 DM May 3, 2023 (edited) 6 hours ago, RichieRich$ said: Oil will not have any last Hurrahs, and you are only looking at the EV market, even in 2030, will not overtake the gas engine. Do you really think 100 million cars are just going away? When Obama had his Cash for Clunkers policy it was a complete disaster and almost wiped out the secondary use car market. Lastly going green / oil free is just a fantasy, explain all the hundreds of thousands of products that oil is used in manufacturing other than gasoline are going to be replaced exactly by going green, HOW? Do you really think 100 million cars are just going away? overtime yes actually hundreds of millions ......They wear out and will be replaced by EVs....and the oil they used to use....will not be needed Fantasy.....no reality Plastic packaging is the biggest user of oil besides transportation.....and yes plastic production is being impacted by recycling Oil use totlally dissapear ....no ...but not used at 100 million BPD as it is now Cash For Clunkers.....happens everyday.....wore out ICE vehicles get hauled off for recycling everyday...used car worth $200 to $300 bucks replaced by EVs............Enjoy Clean Air.........sure beats the good old days of smog and air pollution...unless you enjoy exhaust fumes from clunkers Edited May 3, 2023 by notsonice Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,063 DM May 3, 2023 (edited) CLEANTECHNICA.COM https://cleantechnica.com/2023/03/09/the-global-ice-industry-cliff-is-here/ The Global ICE Industry Cliff Is Here By Guest Contributor Published March 9, 2023 By Luvhrtz As a management consultant, I spend most of my working life playing with numbers and math in the areas of business development and finance. My analysis goals have always been to make use of data and computer models to better understand industry trends. With BEVs starting to go mainstream, we now have enough information to make some fascinating predictions. Courtesy of Luvhrtz The chart above outlines actual and projected global automotive industry sales for BEVs, ICE cars, and total industry production. The production numbers are actual between 2015 and 2022, and are of course projected for 2023–2026 based on historic BEV growth data & trends. Hybrids are lumped in with ICE cars as a preference for full BEVs is becoming clear in the data. As you can see, the overall auto industry has declined from when it peaked in 2017 due to the pandemic and chip shortage before it started to recover in 2021. This chart/model is conservative in predicting industry growth at 1.6% y/y going forward and BEV growth at 50% for 2023 (average BEV growth was 57% for the past 7 years). I also adjusted future BEV growth down starting in 2024 by 2% y/y respecting how it becomes increasingly difficult to grow a larger fleet vs. a smaller one. I think we now have enough data to show that ICE car sales are about to fall off a cliff starting right now! The trends in internal combustion sales only began to diverge from total industry sales in 2020, with 2021 being the first year since 2017 that the overall industry grew while ICE car sales continued their decline. This trend accelerated in 2022 and the model supports how this trend will not only continue but accelerate significantly starting right now. Putting numbers on it, the drop in ICE vehicle demand will mean 2.5 million fewer vehicles this year, 4 million fewer in 2024, 6.5 million fewer in 2025, and a whopping 9.5 million fewer in 2026 for a loss of ICE sales totaling 22 million vehicles over the next 4 years. Also, keep in mind this decline was calculated allowing for 1.6% growth overall for the industry! Edited May 3, 2023 by notsonice Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RichieRich$ + 65 RK May 3, 2023 8 hours ago, notsonice said: Do you really think 100 million cars are just going away? overtime yes actually hundreds of millions ......They wear out and will be replaced by EVs....and the oil they used to use....will not be needed Fantasy.....no reality Plastic packaging is the biggest user of oil besides transportation.....and yes plastic production is being impacted by recycling Oil use totlally dissapear ....no ...but not used at 100 million BPD as it is now Cash For Clunkers.....happens everyday.....wore out ICE vehicles get hauled off for recycling everyday...used car worth $200 to $300 bucks replaced by EVs............Enjoy Clean Air.........sure beats the good old days of smog and air pollution...unless you enjoy exhaust fumes from clunkers And what about the 12% of the oil used in the petrochemical industry? Some are around 12% This fantasy is just that, the green group must have gotten a back case of mushrooms because you are all in fantasy land. For 50 years been hearing the same old same old! Name 10 Countries that have a strong enough power grid to handle 100% EV. Just the costs alone of creating the infrastructure while using all that petroleum needed to put that infrastructure in place would erase any offset in the release of carbon dioxide. So why the big push? Well maybe the financial instruments created to buy carbon offsets are the real reason behind the push. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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