Is the End of the Oil Era Nigh?

Yeah, I know. This is like posting a topic about the illuminati or whatever's hot in conspiracy theories today. Still, I noticed a couple of headlines treating the topic of peak oil demand recently, so I thought I'd tap this here reservoir of knowledge. When is it coming, 2025 or later? And once it comes -- this is more interesting for me -- how fast will demand decline. Over to you.

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There is no "end" of the oil era, where the oil era is interpreted as the usage of oil in society. And the reason is that oil can be manufactured from coal with great success. That technology is quite mature, has been around for 3/4 of a century, basically fuelled the entire German war machine, so you can have all the oil you want, assuming you are prepared to pay whatever premium the coal-conversion process demands. 

Now, if you want to narrow the definition and say:  "Is it the end of the traditional oil era, where oil is pumped out of the ground, either from pools of oil or from split rock  (shale)? "  Then again, the answer is still No, because the amounts that are still out there, waiting to be tapped into, are stupendous.  Probably less than 18% of the world's oil reserves (as liquid) have been consumed. 

If you want to again narrow the definition and say:  "Is it the end of oil, because society has decreed that it should be ended, as burning it is a cataclysmic future burden on the planet?"  That answer is harder, because it is inherently political, and political decisions are ultimately made by people who have no idea what they are doing.  Remember that, from this point in history forward for the next 400 years, the planet should be going back under massive ice sheets, that (for the USA) extended as far South as Memphis.  Those ice sheets should be about one mile thick, or a bit more.  After bulldozing all of Canada and all of the traditional US manufacturing States and all of New England and the City of New York at least  (and possibly Philadelphia as well), it will push the entire contents of the Great Lakes to the south and wreck everything from there to the Gulf of Mexico in this massive release of water.  Be happy that society has burned some oil and gas and allowed some methane to escape - it is the methane that is the strongest greenhouse gas - which has kept those ice sheets from getting started.  

Enjoy the warmth while you can, because the long-term picture for the planet is quite cold.  Ultimately, our fate is to go to the Ice Planet Hoth. 

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I've been hearing about peak oil since the 1980's and yet we still have oil. We have plenty of oil available. Despite all the talk, I don't see any better alternatives. Eventually we will have a substitute alternative for oil, but there is no need to rush and spend money unwisely. Look at what has happened in the last 50 or 100 years and think of what we will be able to do in the next 50 or 100 years. 

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I don't think so that we''ll see the oil era end anytime soon...at least not in next 15-20 years...as estimated before that we could see peak oil by the year 2035 to 2040...

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