Dr. Daniel Fine: Trump and oil in trade geopolitics

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The full article by Dr. Daniel Fine

"Unlike 1973, and its oil embargo against the United States, there is no supply threat from the Middle East. Consequently, only a demand unknown moves the price of crude oil. Permian/Delaware has displaced the Middle East as a source and even Mexico imports U.S. production. 

This has caused euphoria in Santa Fe among lobbyists who prepare for a new Governor from the Democratic Party.

She will have to decide that the rhetoric of renewable energy is no match for her budget bounty made up of revenue flows from Lea and Eddy Counties. Token demonstrations for higher taxes from oil and gas producers no doubt will occur, but in Santa Fe only the price of oil is the threat that can take the punch off the table.   

And here the connected experts publicly answer reporters that the Permian is an exceptionalism in oil and gas: it will never become a basin in a downturn.   

However, all the charts and slides converge on upward supply without much on demand to offset the upward slope. It is almost impolite to ask where is the market for the massive supply of oil now and in the near-term future?  What about demand for oil?
China? Not quite as electric cars – yes, Tesla or Chinese versions appear as I-Phone-like technology against the combustion engine. 

California, with 40 million people and seven states following its waiver, can set miles per gallon requirements on engines towards zero emissions.

This is the meaning of President Trump’s policy to force California back into the Union where Washington decides on what the combustion engine can and will do.

 

This a decisive battle over Climate Change and the “Resist” (Trump) movement of the Democratic Party.

After all, it is California which pledged to support the Paris Climate Change Treaty which Trump opposed. 

The struggle between the Feds and Sacramento over the right to set engine capability for 80 miles per gallon is the most critical determinant of American demand for oil in contrast to the electric alternative. "