A process for the definition of  prevailing trends in the time context is the SEASONALITY


According this method  the value of a magnitude lets say the evolution of the  average price of Crude Oil is the product of 3 elements :


A. The Long Term Value (L)


B. The Seasonality Coefficient (S)


C. The Random Coefficient (R)


where R =1, on an average basis.



S is an Index, taking values around to 1.


If S<1 then we know that we are in a Month with low seasonality, instead of S>1 where we are in a Month with high seasonality


If S=1 then there is no Seasonality, in other words taking the 8.33% (1/12) of an Annual Value (Annual Sales) this will be equal with the sales per month every month...


Total view of S indices, is the the  main stream pattern, created from the past, that explains how is expected to be allocated Monthly  an Annual Value....


S is also the expected  change of an average value of a variable vs. the average value of the previous month.



 An example of a  Seasonality Diagram for CRUDE OIL WTI is the following case :







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