Sudipta Chatterjee

Is this present oil price sustainable?

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Well apparently Shell's CEO thinks it is -

Brent Crude at $80 a barrel is not an “unreasonable” price of oil, and it will support investment in oil and gas infrastructure after the downturn, Shell’s chief executive Ben van Beurden told CNBC in an interview on Tuesday.

“We should be able to balance the market at that sort of oil price level, but of course bringing on new production is not a short-term event,” van Beurden said, noting that it takes years for the industry to bring new production online.

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I believe 70-80 is sustainable through the end of 2018.  My oil price scenarios (real oil prices in 2017$) for Brent Spot prices (12 month centered moving average) in chart below peak prices are $80/b, $113/b and $147/b for the low medium and high scenarios respectively.  I think we are likely to be somewhere between the medium and high scenarios (roughly a 70% probability that the actual 12 month centered average Brent spot price will fall between these two scenarios for about 70% of the period covered).

oil price.png

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