IEA Predicts Wind Will Dominate Europe’s Grid by 2027

Today, roughly 25 percent of the European Union's power currently comes from nuclear sources, with coal and gas each delivering a little above 20 percent. Wind constitutes 10 percent of the European Union's energy mix.

But by 2027, IEA's forecasts put wind just beating all other electricity sources with a 23-percent share of the energy mix. "Other Renewables" like biomass plants contribute a little over 20 percent, gas adds 20 percent, nuclear contributes just a little below 20 percent, and coal declines to just over 10 percent. Solar energy contributes about six or seven percent in the IEA's 2027 scenario.

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The link is to just a series of briefing slides but the forecast depends entirely on government support for wind and solar, as the report itself says. How much political will is there to support those technologies given that power prices in the EU have become so high? However, the most interesting part of the report is the vast increase in electricity generating capacity in China and India by 2040. The increase in China will be more than the expected total installed capacity in the EU in 2040 and, as far as I know, most of it will be coal-fired. About 25 per cent of existing Chinese power generating capacity counts as renewable  but the vast bulk of that is hydro. The Chinese are known to be building more dams, but they are also building a lot of coal plants. It was reported recently that a number of previously suspended coal fired coal plant projects had been quietly restarted. A large part of the Indian increase may be hydro, but the country is also known to be building a number of coal-fired plants. 

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More than a prediction is just a wishlist

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