ATK + 355 AK October 23, 2018 On 10/19/2018 at 3:03 PM, ATK said: We still bump heads with one another, but I'm just chalking it up as JJ's personality being well... unique lol Sometimes he's serious, sometimes he's not. Sometimes he gives detail, sometimes he's very vague. Sometimes he's humble, sometimes he enjoys sniffing his own farts from a wine glass (older south park reference lol). I will continue to challenge him to make an argument explaining his logic rather than pick a number and say that's where it heading. Everyone needs to be challenged from time to time or else we will get comfortable and stop growing our skill sets. JJ even went back and made tweeks to his oil trading program because I called him out so much. It seems to be doing better at least on medium time frames This is what I said about JJ right before this recent spat happened. Like I said, I don't dislike him, I just hate sometimes when he acts like he gave sage advice to me and I should be beyond grateful for his price calls. Let me make something very clear to everyone, I trade options so timing is LITERALLY everything which is why I alway's try to emphasis a timeframe with JJ's trades. I don't have the luxury of waiting months and months for a price point to play out like people who trade on margin so for myself, timing is just as important as price points. Now don't mistake this as me asking JJ where I should enter as I am more than capable of making my own trades, better yet, you should simply just view it as different trading styles where we each emphasis different important aspects (mine being timing, JJ's being price points). 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ATK + 355 AK October 23, 2018 API report came in expecting a 9.8 million barrel build, this lines up with most analyst expectations so looking like EIA might report one as well. To the bulls who were banking on Iranian Sanctions.... WHERE IS YOUR GOD NOW MUHAHAHAHAH 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
catch22 + 244 nn October 23, 2018 Yes - just to reiterate what ATK has said- my rant was to pull JJ back into line- his comments were way over the top and i simply called them for what they were. Provided we keep our comments respectful and not condescending towards others- there wont be any need to call people out for it.. Another point worth noting in the charts is that since this bear run has started- there has been very little to almost none of the whipawing spikes in the price action that was clearly visible in the previous bull run. That shows that the big market movers that were playing their games before have gone inactive for now during this bear run.... I wonder if the saudis were responsible and since their little mishap the US has swayed them to stop messing around? Or perhaps it was the hedge funds copping big losses in the stock crash can no longer afford to take big risks on oil anymore? Im eaegerly watching this space as its much easier to trade leveraged CFDs without that whipsaw taking out your stops... 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
fOILed + 9 iM October 23, 2018 I got out (short) this morning... a little earllier than would have liked in retrospect,- waited, and then got back in (long) right about where things ended up settling. Thats a huge build but WTI barely shrugged... im worried i need to be out (again) before 1030 am eastern... or eat a $2+ dive if EIA comes in close to API OILU and OILD for me.. simple enough 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
oiltrader2k18 + 1 GS October 23, 2018 What is the reason for sudden 4% fall today? I thought Iran sanctions would take the price up? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Keven Tan + 85 October 23, 2018 17 minutes ago, oiltrader2k18 said: What is the reason for sudden 4% fall today? I thought Iran sanctions would take the price up? You probably need to read through all of the chats here. lol. You will find answers. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
catch22 + 244 nn October 23, 2018 Broad market sentiments - look at the stock market indicies all down, and risk currencies USD JPY and CHF - theyre all way up indicating a general risk off sentiment. No whipsawing in the oil price - big market movers (institutions) not in the market. The previous bull run was all driven by sentiment - we already discussed that - it had no fundamental basis to it. Most of that rise would have been driven by institutional speculation and now they are out - prices are settling back closer to where they should be naturally...for now... It will be looking for a bottom - look at the chart and see the previous resistance levels - the big players will be waiting for it to hold at one of these levels before they start buying again and the market will have found a temporary bottom. Why one of these levels?- because there is nothing else to go by, no other way of telling where the bottom may lie - hence it generallly holds true as money begins to follow more money once a line is drawn in the sand (chart)... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
catch22 + 244 nn October 23, 2018 (edited) 7 hours ago, fOILed said: I for one, am looking for a good spot to get back in on the upswing- (for $1 or $2 at least). is this going below 67 before going back to 69-70? What say you JJ? ATK? Catch? What i say is what ive said in the past - you have to wait for the price action to show you as making wild guesses will not provide you with a probability higher than throwing your money down on the roulette wheel at the casino. I would keep taking short positions triggered after each bullish pullback breaks down again - this is only valid provided the bearish trend is still intact. But keep an eye out for the prior resistance levels visible on the chart and dont sell into those as its too risky being caught at a reversal point. Its also risky to trade swings against the general trend - its possible but very risky and not recommended except for extremely experienced traders. Its also risky to sell when market is showing very oversold indicators, and so a bounce should occur reasonably soon but we may or may not see it till next week... As a real trader that risks my hard earned real money - i can tell that JJ does not use real money. I believe he did use real money on one occasion where he made an avalanche of commentary and you could see the emotions flowing from him in his posts as he was excitedly watching the trade progress, DW saw it unfold with me... it was remarkable the difference you could see in his posts compared to what he normally posts. It happened to be a winning trade but he got out early due to the adrenaline flow through his veins as he took a big risk- its back earlier in the thread if you care to search it out. The rest of the time he probably trades on a demo account or similar. The reason i say this is because of the things he says and the way he says them and his general approach to making calls willy nilly - in those there is no risk consideration. You simply would not behave in the manner he normally does if there were real money on the line when making those calls - and this is the difference. When you trade real money, emotions and sentiments are difficult to control as there is real risk involved, you may set tighter stops or exit trades early compared to an emotionless scenario. When you trade fake money on a demo account - there is no real risk and therefore you behave in a completely different manner to how you would with a real trading account. This concept has been proven many times in the past where people are successful on their demo accounts and then when they start with real money they loose - its is well documented on the net if you search it out. Edited October 23, 2018 by catch22 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
oiltrader2k18 + 1 GS October 23, 2018 1 hour ago, Keven Tan said: You probably need to read through all of the chats here. lol. You will find answers. WO That's a lot!! Some summary would be helpful Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ATK + 355 AK October 23, 2018 35 minutes ago, catch22 said: What i say is what ive said in the past - you have to wait for the price action to show you as making wild guesses will not provide you with a probability higher than throwing your money down on the roulette wheel at the casino. I would keep taking short positions triggered after each bullish pullback breaks down again - this is only valid provided the bearish trend is still intact. But keep an eye out for the prior resistance levels visible on the chart and dont sell into those as its too risky being caught at a reversal point. Its also risky to trade swings against the general trend - its possible but very risky and not recommended except for extremely experienced traders. Its also risky to sell when market is showing very oversold indicators, and so a bounce should occur reasonably soon but we may or may not see it till next week... As a real trader that risks my hard earned real money - i can tell that JJ does not use real money. I believe he did use real money on one occasion where he made an avalanche of commentary and you could see the emotions flowing from him in his posts as he was excitedly watching the trade progress, DW saw it unfold with me... it was remarkable the difference you could see in his posts compared to what he normally posts. It happened to be a winning trade but he got out early due to the adrenaline flow through his veins as he took a big risk- its back earlier in the thread if you care to search it out. The rest of the time he probably trades on a demo account or similar. The reason i say this is because of the things he says and the way he says them and his general approach to making calls willy nilly - in those there is no risk consideration. You simply would not behave in the manner he normally does if there were real money on the line when making those calls - and this is the difference. When you trade real money, emotions and sentiments are difficult to control as there is real risk involved, you may set tighter stops or exit trades early compared to an emotionless scenario. When you trade fake money on a demo account - there is no real risk and therefore you behave in a completely different manner to how you would with a real trading account. This concept has been proven many times in the past where people are successful on their demo accounts and then when they start with real money they loose - its is well documented on the net if you search it out. Honestly I kind of had the same hunch, I didn't understand the mood swings with some of his stuff, but the emotional trader scenario seems the most plausible 2 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rodent + 1,424 October 23, 2018 51 minutes ago, catch22 said: What i say is what ive said in the past - you have to wait for the price action to show you as making wild guesses will not provide you with a probability higher than throwing your money down on the roulette wheel at the casino. I would keep taking short positions triggered after each bullish pullback breaks down again - this is only valid provided the bearish trend is still intact. But keep an eye out for the prior resistance levels visible on the chart and dont sell into those as its too risky being caught at a reversal point. Its also risky to trade swings against the general trend - its possible but very risky and not recommended except for extremely experienced traders. Its also risky to sell when market is showing very oversold indicators, and so a bounce should occur reasonably soon but we may or may not see it till next week... As a real trader that risks my hard earned real money - i can tell that JJ does not use real money. I believe he did use real money on one occasion where he made an avalanche of commentary and you could see the emotions flowing from him in his posts as he was excitedly watching the trade progress, DW saw it unfold with me... it was remarkable the difference you could see in his posts compared to what he normally posts. It happened to be a winning trade but he got out early due to the adrenaline flow through his veins as he took a big risk- its back earlier in the thread if you care to search it out. The rest of the time he probably trades on a demo account or similar. The reason i say this is because of the things he says and the way he says them and his general approach to making calls willy nilly - in those there is no risk consideration. You simply would not behave in the manner he normally does if there were real money on the line when making those calls - and this is the difference. When you trade real money, emotions and sentiments are difficult to control as there is real risk involved, you may set tighter stops or exit trades early compared to an emotionless scenario. When you trade fake money on a demo account - there is no real risk and therefore you behave in a completely different manner to how you would with a real trading account. This concept has been proven many times in the past where people are successful on their demo accounts and then when they start with real money they loose - its is well documented on the net if you search it out. Why are we talking about someone like they're not even in the room? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Kirkman + 8,860 October 23, 2018 The heck is going on in this thread? Please play nice, guys. To be honest, I don't particularly follow this thread, because I have very little interest in following the constant short term oil price fluctuations. Debate all you want about short term trading strategies (my eyes will eventually glaze over) but please don't get personal about this stuff. Downvote my comment here at your own risk, I'm intervening here as a moderator. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 24, 2018 It hit my targets 67 all the way to 65, i cant be any more exact than that. If some of you still think i dont know anything, so be it. I am taking a vacation, would love to still be able to help, but due to some people here, have decided to not come back, for a long time. Again most here are really amazing people, but .... I guess im not sure why i brought myself to the gutter, however for me to stay awake almost 24 hours and watch the market, that takes 2 bottles of coke a day, imagine the caffeine. so i get agitated for the dumbest reasons, including people telling me i cant trade. But again im sorry i brought myself down to the level of street gutter, to the level of others. Hopefully you wont hear from me for a long long time. Take care. Maybe others can take over where i left and guide you better in your trading. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Enthalpic + 1,496 October 24, 2018 A broken clock is right twice a day. A prediction without a solid time-frame is junk. I predict that within 100 years you will all be dead... 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cowpoke + 70 C October 24, 2018 3 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said: The heck is going on in this thread? Please play nice, guys. To be honest, I don't particularly follow this thread, because I have very little interest in following the constant short term oil price fluctuations. Debate all you want about short term trading strategies (my eyes will eventually glaze over) but please don't get personal about this stuff. Downvote my comment here at your own risk, I'm intervening here as a moderator. From what I have read, it's just guys shukin and jivin testosterone in the trade pit talk. No Yo Mama jokes or anything.. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Kirkman + 8,860 October 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cowpoke said: From what I have read, it's just guys shukin and jivin testosterone in the trade pit talk. No Yo Mama jokes or anything.. Thanks, wasn't sure, I was asked to intervene... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rodent + 1,424 October 24, 2018 And with that behind us, let's now bring the topic back around to oil trading and let's see if we can manage to stay on topic. Surely with today's price swings there are better things to discuss. Our readers don't come to the forum to read interpersonal disputes. 2 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 24, 2018 Today no caffeine, so much more relaxed actually didnt trade at all since started packing. again wont be here to help, quick glance though here on wti, and its telling me selloff is far from over. I cant believe that they will even try for my extreme target of 64, however if they do that, then this means there are some big problems, with demand. Or big glut of oil on the markets, and buyers are almost naming their prices. Anyways good luck, hope you make some money. Hope you guys find someone else, trading crude indeed is very difficult for most traders. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 October 24, 2018 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said: Today no caffeine, so much more relaxed actually didnt trade at all since started packing. again wont be here to help, quick glance though here on wti, and its telling me selloff is far from over. I cant believe that they will even try for my extreme target of 64, however if they do that, then this means there are some big problems, with demand. Or big glut of oil on the markets, and buyers are almost naming their prices. Anyways good luck, hope you make some money. Hope you guys find someone else, trading crude indeed is very difficult for most traders. Come on back when you get a chance, JJ. Things have a way of sorting themselves out over time. BTW, I agree that the price drop is not finished. The facts remain that there is more than enough oil to easily meet a falling worldwide demand. Edited October 24, 2018 by Dan Warnick 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ATK + 355 AK October 24, 2018 (edited) Look JJ, respect gets respect, you can't talk down to people and then get offended when people call you out on it. If you want to talk trade, let's talk trade, but the superiority complexes need to be left at the door. That's the last thing I'm saying about this and would very much like to talk about current price action with those who are willing. RSI on the 1hr and 4hr have reset giving us the ability to move even lower. Just need the EIA report to come out confirming the build and it's off to the races! Edited October 24, 2018 by ATK 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Auson + 123 AD October 24, 2018 ATK, I hope not I think yesterdays fall was enough for one week ( and my blood pressure ) I also think it was a mix of Saudi Comments, OPEC forecast demand reduction and the US market sell off correction causing some 'risk off' sentiment. I expect a DOW bounce today and Brent WTI to follow. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 24, 2018 one thing is certain the drillers will lose big if crude continues to drop, someone does not want it to drop, and all kinds of monies will be spent trying to keep crude from hitting, wait for it.. wait for it.. 50 bucks. I hope that wont happen for lots of people. And it wont be in straight line, without big retraces. Ok got to go, DW, Tom please try and keep the peace. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Kirkman + 8,860 October 24, 2018 1 minute ago, Top Oil Trader said: Ok got to go, DW, Tom please try and keep the peace. Yeah, I'll have to pay a bit more attention to this thread, at least until things settle down a bit. Tracking short term oil price fluctuations is not my interest, I'm more long and medium term. Tracking daily short term peaks and valleys would drive me bonkers. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Auson + 123 AD October 24, 2018 Top Oil Trader, If everyone is respectful there will be peace on earth, no need for it to be enforced. Talking of peace imagine mentioning $50 oil in a dive bar in the Permian then I think peace might need to be enforced ! 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ATK + 355 AK October 24, 2018 11 minutes ago, Auson said: ATK, I hope not I think yesterdays fall was enough for one week ( and my blood pressure ) I also think it was a mix of Saudi Comments, OPEC forecast demand reduction and the US market sell off correction causing some 'risk off' sentiment. I expect a DOW bounce today and Brent WTI to follow. I was aactually surprised how low we got yesterday, but regardless, a 5th straight week of crude builds is pretty bearish and again goes against the bullish narrative we've been hearing the past few months of being in a "tight" oil market. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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