WTI @ $75.75, headed for $64 - 67

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

this is why i am beginning to love crude, i never see these kinds of moves in the eur so far just 20 min ago crude was at 63.2 now its at 62, so powerful, and you really understand the fundamentals yes indeed its important but timing is more, then the benefits moneywise are tremendeous and fast, and if indeed you  have no clue,  the losses can be astronomical

[mysore + 4]

Hello All,

just registered, but have been following this forum for a while.  My interest is not trading, but to protect myself from huge increases in heating oil prices during winter.  Right now, I am OK with the current heating oil price (around 2.75 per gallon).  I bought a March 15,2019 45 call option on WTI;  could someone comment on this (if this is the right way to do it,  or if there is a better way to do this, which will correlate to heating oil prices.).  

Note:  I can only do Stock and Options.

Thanks in advance.

 

 

 

[ATK + 355]

On 10/4/2018 at 3:12 PM, ATK said:

Awww there is that bullish bias! Falling for no reason you say? Or the market coming to its senses? 

Largest crude build in 19 months caused by DECREASING EXPORTS (aka oil market not as tight as the media believes)

Saudi Arabia and Russia both agreeing to increase output. Now if I remember correctly, the rally started because OPEC said they "wouldn't " increase production. But would you look at that! Sure enough they did! Also Kuwait-Saudi oil fields are not included when calculating spare capacity by most analyst

Strengthening US dollar and it's effect on emerging markets and their oil purchases (India borrowing more money to buy oil while the rupee continues to decline, I don't want to be the bank that loaned them the money when it comes time to pay the bills!)

Hedge funds and traders are the only ones that want $100. OPEC knows it's not worth destroying the global economy for a few good months of expensive oil prices and won't let oil remain in the triple digits for long 

 

Oh and Iran is going to sell those barrels on the black market for a cheap discount as they have in the past, so anyone who thinks exports will go to 0 is just delusional 

 

This aged well. Just a reminder that both FA and TA work and is completely dependent on the type of trader you are

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

never heard of him, i just trade the contracts

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

now at 62.20 it looks like wti will go up, but i just shorted here again... after exiting the shorts much lower

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

i look at the spot but trade the futures dec which are usually at higher prices than spot

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

usually the spot will move  way    before the dec or jan  contracts so  u get a little of heads up

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

this drop of course fundamentally had to happen, why? whatever reason i would have others would have argued on so i didnt bother, so now the problem is the longs hedgefunds where taken by surprise especially since they thought goldman price target of 80 was right and the hardy from         ventrol said the sanctions noone can avoid, but indeed trump            already gave 8  country permission, so again their forecast where way way off as usuall. Though many times they do get it right but that is usually in a straight uptrend, without these wild swings. usually  noone are able to predict these moves.  I would say this move was the 3 to 4 wave, before wave 5, so if you know  about                                  ew, not that i really subscribe to it, but i do      watch it,  3 -4 is the wave everyone makes mistakes and hardly anyone can figure out, since its really the most random time, and unless so with these surprising drops, lots of these guys will need to unwind due to potential margin calls, especially when their other asset droped too. which means what? a lot more pain before goldmans 80 target take effect. remember when crude on oct 1 was 76 and about that time their forecast was for 80, now at 63 its 80 again, and eventually once crude stops  bleeding big account we will have a spike, and ventrol and goldman  can finally take a sign of relief. Again when it is volatile most will fail big time, unless, they really have a clue, and how can you have a better clue than        ventrol  or goldman?

Edited November 6, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[ATK + 355]

59 minutes ago, Technical_Fundamentalist said:

Hey @Top Oil Trader,

Do you trade options like ATK? I've been following this thread anonymously and I was under the impression you traded with more money

I'm trying to get an idea of the best way to trade oil and options look's like a good way to go (id love to make 10 grand in a single trade lol)

Lol just be careful with options, you can lose a lot of money very quickly if you don't know what you are doing. I'd read more about it and maybe practice with some paper trades before using real money

[ATK + 355]

29 minutes ago, Technical_Fundamentalist said:

I feel like a lot of people here knew that $100 a  barrel of oil wasn't going to happen  ( @Osama @Dan Warnick @ATK at the start of October)

Yup, we thought IRANIAN SANCTIONS were a bit overblown lol

But just let @Top Oil Trader live in his little bubble that only he can see where things are going 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so indeed there is nothing moving as fast as crude but if you are well prepared you can figure out the moves well ahead of time, and even when they fake out, you just laugh sit back and wait

[catch22 + 244]

And also note that he did not respond to what platform he uses to trade... he doesnt have one because he doesnt trade real money nor ever give any evidence to back up any of his claims- like taking a short trade after the fact the market moved down...  🤣

 

 

Edited November 6, 2018 by catch22

[GeoPolitics + 14]

Really enjoy this thread, thank you for everyone who posts here.

@Top Oil Trader I'm also curious at what platform you use as well. Trying to find one for myself to use.

What do you recommend?

Also I'm curious what you mean you you refer to "points" ? Do you mean dollars?

Thanks in advance!

Edited November 6, 2018 by GeoPolitics

[ATK + 355]

Going to sit back with my popcorn and watch this unfold lol

[ATK + 355]

6 hours ago, mysore said:

Hello All,

just registered, but have been following this forum for a while.  My interest is not trading, but to protect myself from huge increases in heating oil prices during winter.  Right now, I am OK with the current heating oil price (around 2.75 per gallon).  I bought a March 15,2019 45 call option on WTI;  could someone comment on this (if this is the right way to do it,  or if there is a better way to do this, which will correlate to heating oil prices.).  

Note:  I can only do Stock and Options.

Thanks in advance.

 

 

 

Do you have access to call debit spreads/ put credit spreads?

They are typically a lot more conservative (limits risk, but lowers reward). With a Put credit spread you are both buying and selling a put and you make money by oil either trading sideways or going up in price. You want the put to expire worthless in this case due to the fact you are making money on collecting premiums by selling puts. Buying puts at the same time limits the downside 

With a call debit spread you are both buying and selling a call. In this case, you make money when your call rises in value and sell a call  at the same time as a means to hedge your money. Basically with this you limit the downside risk while also capping your upside.

This might be the route you are looking for if you are just trying to hedge

Edited November 6, 2018 by ATK

[mysore + 4]

1 hour ago, ATK said:

Do you have access to call debit spreads/ put credit spreads?

They are typically a lot more conservative (limits risk, but lowers reward). With a Put credit spread you are both buying and selling a put and you make money by oil either trading sideways or going up in price. You want the put to expire worthless in this case due to the fact you are making money on collecting premiums by selling puts. Buying puts at the same time limits the downside 

With a call debit spread you are both buying and selling a call. In this case, you make money when your call rises in value and sell a call  at the same time as a means to hedge your money. Basically with this you limit the downside risk while also capping your upside.

This might be the route you are looking for if you are just trying to hedge

Thanks; will try it.

[catch22 + 244]

Look at the whipsaws on the USD pairs as the midterm election news dribbles thru, this is exactly why im not in the market before this.

 

 

 

Edited November 7, 2018 by catch22

[Osama + 248]

12 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

this drop of course fundamentally had to happen, why? whatever reason i would have others would have argued on so i didnt bother, so now the problem is the longs hedgefunds where taken by surprise especially since they thought goldman price target of 80 was right and the hardy from         ventrol said the sanctions noone can avoid, but indeed trump            already gave 8  country permission, so again their forecast where way way off as usuall. Though many times they do get it right but that is usually in a straight uptrend, without these wild swings. usually  noone are able to predict these moves.  I would say this move was the 3 to 4 wave, before wave 5, so if you know  about                                  ew, not that i really subscribe to it, but i do      watch it,  3 -4 is the wave everyone makes mistakes and hardly anyone can figure out, since its really the most random time, and unless so with these surprising drops, lots of these guys will need to unwind due to potential margin calls, especially when their other asset droped too. which means what? a lot more pain before goldmans 80 target take effect. remember when crude on oct 1 was 76 and about that time their forecast was for 80, now at 63 its 80 again, and eventually once crude stops  bleeding big account we will have a spike, and ventrol and goldman  can finally take a sign of relief. Again when it is volatile most will fail big time, unless, they really have a clue, and how can you have a better clue than        ventrol  or goldman?

We might see it drop into 60s today if EIA confirms the 7 million build up by API. But … yes the retracement.. as I am not well versed in technical...the bottom is hard to predict...may be.., as you mentioned, $57? The G20 meeting failure can take oil below 60s....In my humble opinion.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

9 hours ago, mysore said:

11 hours ago, ATK said:

With a call debit spread you are both buying and selling a call. In this case, you make money when your call rises in value and sell a call  at the same time as a means to hedge your money. Basically with this you limit the downside risk while also capping your upside.

This might be the route you are looking for if you are just trying to hedge

Thanks; will try it.

I like this method and use it often.  If I'm not mistaken about ATK's meaning, it is called a Long Vertical Spread.  So on the trading platform you would select a Call Ask price to buy, and then select Vertical, and then select your Bid price price to sell.  This is then executed as a single trade.  There's a good video on this strategy by Sky View Trading (I have no connection at all).

The Right Way To Buy Options - Long Vertical Spread

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

why you should never trade options. First hardly any retail players can make money on options. Unless you know how to write options dont bother to buy them, since youll always  overpay which will put you at a  disadvantage. if you insist on doing option, spend some money on books or courses by najaran from chicago. dont listen to some  strategy by some trader who himself has no clue. i do gurantee you, you will lose your money if you listen to someone, unless you yourself know exactly how to price options, and know the strategies available. Options are for professionals only, not for gamblers.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

										$1,227
										$597
										$3,360
										$19
										$331
										$5,076

 

some of my trades in crude last 2 weeks, just in 1 account. last trade i just did in last 15 min, was a long.  the 19 trade was a eur trade, so as i said i will be switching to crude full time pretty soon.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

this acct alone is up 120% started in late october, 80% are forex trades, small profits and some losses, no losses on crude trades

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

right now up about 700. trading oil is actually simpler than trading baseball cards, technicals wont do it though, its much too fast and to many false signals to fool you, so if you dont mind being wrong by $2 up or down, and you can stomach it, i guess being accurate wont matter, but if you need to accurate a lot of skill is needed.

[ATK + 355]

1 hour ago, Dan Warnick said:

I like this method and use it often.  If I'm not mistaken about ATK's meaning, it is called a Long Vertical Spread.  So on the trading platform you would select a Call Ask price to buy, and then select Vertical, and then select your Bid price price to sell.  This is then executed as a single trade.  There's a good video on this strategy by Sky View Trading (I have no connection at all).

The Right Way To Buy Options - Long Vertical Spread

Yeah it has different names, but essentially the same concept.

[ATK + 355]

Lol I literally just don't believe you @Top Oil Trader