Irrational Oil Market - WTI climbs after 8 million barrel build

(edited)

Title says it all, want to know what your thoughts are about recent price movements after EIA reported an 8 million barrel crude build.

Yes bulls we know Iran Sanctions are right around the corner, but please explain why a massive crude build results in a price climb (even attempting a new ATH)

Edited by ATK

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The reason is that the price of oil has nothing to do with fundamentals.  It is the dance of two elements inside the mind of each trader:  greed, and fear. 

Right now, "Greed" is taking over.  These guys think that there will be major market disruptions so they bid each other up. When all their cash is sitting in high-priced contracts, and it turns out the market is well supplied,and the Iranians are running the blockade with phantom tankers, then "fear" will set in, and you will see a spectacular price crash as everyone stampedes for the exits. The question, as always, is "when." 

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2 minutes ago, ATK said:

Title says it all, want to know what your thoughts are about recent price movements after EIA reported an 8 million barrel crude build.

Yes bulls we know Iran Sanctions are right around the corner, but please explain why a massive crude build results in a price climb (even attempting a new ATH)

WTI slumping a teeny tiny bit now. I think it's definitely part Iran and the intense fear that there will be a tightening of supplies. But also it's information overload, really. Media reports US to China crude oil has completely stopped. Saudi/Russia agreed quietly to boost production prior to OPEC meet, Iraq says OPEC isn't lifting production for now, Saudi plans to lift production in Oct/Nov. And then EIA, which is normally a hot ticket mover of oil prices, is just one more piece of noise.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Rodent said:

WTI slumping a teeny tiny bit now. I think it's definitely part Iran and the intense fear that there will be a tightening of supplies. But also it's information overload, really. Media reports US to China crude oil has completely stopped. Saudi/Russia agreed quietly to boost production prior to OPEC meet, Iraq says OPEC isn't lifting production for now, Saudi plans to lift production in Oct/Nov. And then EIA, which is normally a hot ticket mover of oil prices, is just one more piece of noise.

 

 

God forbid if they have even mentioned a 1 million barrel draw I bet WTI would be $80 right now, the market has such a strong bullish bias it's not even funny. I think the market will get a swift kick in the nuts and correct once people come to their senses.

And everything you listed there, definetly favors the downside rather than the upside. I personally think hedge funds are behind all this due to how many of them are long. November can't come soon enough, can't wait for people to start looking at numbers again and shut the fuck up about Iranian Sanctions already

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(edited)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/E3DA14AA-C6F4-11E8-B749-3B074E7D01E0

Yup this article says it all, bulls walking a very fine line right now, they are clinging to their Iranian Sanctions Narrative. Here is a clip:

"The only thing keeping crude from a large move down is the upcoming Iran sanctions, which are going to be implemented in November,” said Tariq Zahir, managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors.

Build was largely a result of decreased exports, but wait... I though we were in a tight oil market? Surely people are clawing for oil right now, you know, because of Iranian Sanctions and cause people are just "panicking" to find oil

Largest Crude build of this year also.

I'm going to get popcorn for the evitable crash when people realize how irrational they have been. 100% over speculation 

Edited by ATK
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I've always been a contrarian, but my gut feeling says we will see $60 before we see $100 WTI

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11 minutes ago, Outlaw Jackie said:

I've always been a contrarian, but my gut feeling says we will see $60 before we see $100 WTI

We just hit $76.45, I hope this is the wake up call people need to realize how fucking stupid this market is

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I am a new member of this forum. Only a question, "irrational market" is an oxymoron, don't you think so? Market is not a rational thing in itself. It is not stupid either. The mainstream media that feeds the narrative everyone seems to follow deserve that attribute more. The narrative flows: 1. oil prices crosses 80s and move upward. 2. OPEC producers  supply more than demand. 3. Someone tweets and each piece of news connects the price action to OPEC, as if those countries can decide short term price actions under such circumstances. Does it make any sense? Not really, but it seems it is taken for granted by every average consumer in the US and elsewhere.

 I don't think we lack information, it is perhaps more about our point of view.

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1 hour ago, ATK said:

We just hit $76.45, I hope this is the wake up call people need to realize how fucking stupid this market is

I am afraid this will not happen before WTI climbs to $80 at least. 

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12 hours ago, ATK said:

Title says it all, want to know what your thoughts are about recent price movements after EIA reported an 8 million barrel crude build.

Yes bulls we know Iran Sanctions are right around the corner, but please explain why a massive crude build results in a price climb (even attempting a new ATH)

I'm so very tempted to say that people expected this, what with refinery maintenance season starting and everything but I can't say this. I'm with @Rodent.

@NAPHTA, it's called a pleonasm, not an oxymoron. "White darkness" is an oxymoron. Stating the same thing twice as in "irrational oil market" is a pleonasm. Forgive me, linguist here, couldn't help it.

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13 hours ago, ATK said:

Title says it all, want to know what your thoughts are about recent price movements after EIA reported an 8 million barrel crude build.

Yes bulls we know Iran Sanctions are right around the corner, but please explain why a massive crude build results in a price climb (even attempting a new ATH)

I will give you my thoughts in about 36 hrs when a cargo is loaded and I can give you a price reference for  a physical crude oil cargo.. are we talking about a US cargo or NWE cargo or a AG cargo etc? thanks

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11 minutes ago, ceo_energemsier said:

I will give you my thoughts in about 36 hrs when a cargo is loaded and I can give you a price reference for  a physical crude oil cargo.. are we talking about a US cargo or NWE cargo or a AG cargo etc? thanks

2 or 3 or 4 things or more....

where is the crude build up?

regionally, geographically.......

if crude build up is in the WH

and a potential shut out of crude in the AG ....

lots of things to factor in....

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3 hours ago, Marina Schwarz said:

I'm so very tempted to say that people expected this, what with refinery maintenance season starting and everything but I can't say this. I'm with @Rodent.

@NAPHTA, it's called a pleonasm, not an oxymoron. "White darkness" is an oxymoron. Stating the same thing twice as in "irrational oil market" is a pleonasm. Forgive me, linguist here, couldn't help it.

It all depends what you intend to say. If I call it an oxymoron, that is because market cannot be rational or irrational, we can be. It belongs to the same family as "affordable caviar", "Fact checked Fox News hours", etc. Pleonasm is close enough but conveys a different rhetorical effect, the repetition is one of such effects but not intended in my comment. Perhaps, I was not clear enough. Sorry for this diversion from the main topic. 

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No, they are actually different things, hence my remark, but let's leave the definition discussion for a language forum. The market is made up of people, so it's perfectly accurate to call it rational/irrational (synecdoche). (There is affordable caviar, by the way, it's called tarama, and I'm sure Fox News reports on official documents and actual events often enough. Both are factual categories.)

Sorry. Sorry. Won't happen again. Sorry.

With so  many people getting off on the drama chances are Brent could touch $90 before it all unravels. All markets are stupid and that's a fact.

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Well folks, what the devil is happening to WTI today?  Up, down, all around town.  Volume shows a lot of red pushing the price down and then big green pushes it back up again.  I'm flummoxed.

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I see the same thing happening to Brent. I'm not really a trader in any professional sense of the word. For Brent, a retracement down to 85.40-30 was expected. And the idea is it will bounce back, and start climbing, up to 87 plus? Nothing is certain....

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Any thoughts from the chart watching community around here.  I'd be interested to hear what you guys see and if there is a consensus among you.

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But... but.... Iranian sanctions

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We are in a crude oil bull market with higher highs and higher lows. Short term we are overbought by many technical measures and a correction is overdue with good support in the high 60’s. Just as the market overdid it on the downside with WTI under $30/barrel in early 2016, I am afraid that we will see WTI prices over $100/barrel before this bull ends. 

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1 hour ago, Manfred Kruger said:

We are in a crude oil bull market with higher highs and higher lows. Short term we are overbought by many technical measures and a correction is overdue with good support in the high 60’s. Just as the market overdid it on the downside with WTI under $30/barrel in early 2016, I am afraid that we will see WTI prices over $100/barrel before this bull ends. 

When they talk about $100 a barrel for oil they are talking about brent, WI would be close to $90 if that happened

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(edited)

4 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Any thoughts from the chart watching community around here.  I'd be interested to hear what you guys see and if there is a consensus among you.

Oilprice hit the nail on the head when he said that the 9 day MA acts like a magnet which roughly translated to $74 give or take a few cents. He says what to watch for is if prices close below that we often see a bigger selloff, but for this current rally we had been bouncing off of it. Although the bounce from today wasn't as big as previous ones

 

Also, I thought JJ was the TA wiz? Why not ask him lol

Edited by ATK
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4 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Well folks, what the devil is happening to WTI today?  Up, down, all around town.  Volume shows a lot of red pushing the price down and then big green pushes it back up again.  I'm flummoxed.

DW your a smart dude, I know you know all the bearish stuff that happened yesterday lol

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17 minutes ago, ATK said:

Oilprice hit the nail on the head when he said that the 9 day MA acts like a magnet which roughly translated to $74 give or take a few cents. He says what to watch for is if prices close below that we often see a bigger selloff, but for this current rally we had been bouncing off of it. Although the bounce from today wasn't as big as previous ones

So what is the new long entry point?  All I did by getting out today was save myself some money to where it went down to.  I'm ready to try to the upside again!

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I believe that today’s drop is just a short pull back to create a room for attracting more and more irrational oil bull traders. I am a bear of Oil no matter what, and I know the current bull rally is just unstoppable. 

Back to summer, I was certain there would be a major down trend beginning in September, however, the reality slapped my face back and forth. As a result, I just keep silent and wait to see the results in November, end of December and 1st-2nd quarters in 2019, whether oil will either show the tendency of crashing the heck of it or the continuity of bull rally triggering a globe recession again. 

Shall just play Baccarat, why mentally self-torturing in oil market since this crap does not really follow any “reality”. Right ???   🙄🙄🙄

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