World’s Oil Traders Face Off Over Price Outlook As Iran Sanctions Near

The world’s biggest independent oil traders are deeply divided over the crude price outlook as the start date of sanctions on Iran’s energy exports draws near, setting up a major battleground for the industry in 2019. Ian Taylor of Vitol, chairman of the world’s largest independent energy trader, told the Oil & Money conference on Wednesday he expected prices to eventually fall towards $65 a barrel, arguing he saw no shortage of crude in the market and the early signs of weaker demand. In the opposite corner is Jeremy Weir of Trafigura, Vitol’s long time rival, who said at the same London event he expects to see “three figure” prices before the recent rally is tempered, which has already seen Brent crude gain 50 per cent in the past 12 months to near $85 a barrel.Glencore and Gunvor, two other large independent traders, said they expect slightly stronger and weaker prices respectively at the same event. Alex Beard, head of energy at Glencore, said he expected prices to stay strong due to the Iranian sanctions, which have threatened to remove as much as 2m barrels a day — or 2 per cent of world supplies from the market. He said he believed the end goal of the Trump administration was “regime change” in Tehran. The chief executive of Gunvor, Torbjörn Törnqvist, said he saw oil slipping to $70-$75 a barrel as he believed fears about Saudi Arabia’s ability to make up the shortfall from Iran are overstated.

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So, Major oil traders 2019 price views: 

Glencore: $85-$90
Trafigura: $85 
Vitol: $65
Gunvor: $70-$75

But Trafigura warns risk of brief spike above $100 a barrel !

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Long vol and basis by design not flat price...

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6 minutes ago, ThunderBlade said:

The world’s biggest independent oil traders are deeply divided over the crude price outlook as the start date of sanctions on Iran’s energy exports draws near, setting up a major battleground for the industry in 2019. Ian Taylor of Vitol, chairman of the world’s largest independent energy trader, told the Oil & Money conference on Wednesday he expected prices to eventually fall towards $65 a barrel, arguing he saw no shortage of crude in the market and the early signs of weaker demand. In the opposite corner is Jeremy Weir of Trafigura, Vitol’s long time rival, who said at the same London event he expects to see “three figure” prices before the recent rally is tempered, which has already seen Brent crude gain 50 per cent in the past 12 months to near $85 a barrel.Glencore and Gunvor, two other large independent traders, said they expect slightly stronger and weaker prices respectively at the same event. Alex Beard, head of energy at Glencore, said he expected prices to stay strong due to the Iranian sanctions, which have threatened to remove as much as 2m barrels a day — or 2 per cent of world supplies from the market. He said he believed the end goal of the Trump administration was “regime change” in Tehran. The chief executive of Gunvor, Torbjörn Törnqvist, said he saw oil slipping to $70-$75 a barrel as he believed fears about Saudi Arabia’s ability to make up the shortfall from Iran are overstated.

The spread between their price expectations is close to $40 a barrel... Nice.
 

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2 hours ago, ThunderBlade said:

The world’s biggest independent oil traders are deeply divided over the crude price outlook as the start date of sanctions on Iran’s energy exports draws near, setting up a major battleground for the industry in 2019. Ian Taylor of Vitol, chairman of the world’s largest independent energy trader, told the Oil & Money conference on Wednesday he expected prices to eventually fall towards $65 a barrel, arguing he saw no shortage of crude in the market and the early signs of weaker demand. In the opposite corner is Jeremy Weir of Trafigura, Vitol’s long time rival, who said at the same London event he expects to see “three figure” prices before the recent rally is tempered, which has already seen Brent crude gain 50 per cent in the past 12 months to near $85 a barrel.Glencore and Gunvor, two other large independent traders, said they expect slightly stronger and weaker prices respectively at the same event. Alex Beard, head of energy at Glencore, said he expected prices to stay strong due to the Iranian sanctions, which have threatened to remove as much as 2m barrels a day — or 2 per cent of world supplies from the market. He said he believed the end goal of the Trump administration was “regime change” in Tehran. The chief executive of Gunvor, Torbjörn Törnqvist, said he saw oil slipping to $70-$75 a barrel as he believed fears about Saudi Arabia’s ability to make up the shortfall from Iran are overstated.

So what does it mean and who is right and what are their assessment based on? Don't we have reliable instruments from which such assessments should be based. Unfortunately without background information from which these different views are based on, they may remain opinions by big guys and unfortunately opinions from big guys tend to become authority even if they are just guess work statements. I however go with the increase in prices because the global geopolitics are conducive for a tension that leads nothing else but rise in prices.

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(edited)

4 hours ago, damirUSBiH said:

So, Major oil traders 2019 price views: 

Glencore: $85-$90
Trafigura: $85 
Vitol: $65
Gunvor: $70-$75

But Trafigura warns risk of brief spike above $100 a barrel !

The average is $77.5/b with a range of 65 to 90 and if we throw out low and high estimates the range is 70 to 85.

I am no expert, but my guess is the higher end of this range will be correct, I would guess by Sept 2019 we will see $90/b, with prices in the $80 to $100/b range for the trailing 12 month average Brent price in Sept 2019.

For the past 12 months Brent spot prices have averaged $69.55/b and for the past 6 months the average has been $74.89/b, the average price in Sept was $78.89/b.

Edited by Dennis Coyne
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Too much crisis and conflict that are in direct connection with price. When is the end? Why does every thing increase except salaries?

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Brent crude oil price.
Three years ago: $48.6
Two years ago: $49.9
One year ago: $57.9
Six months ago: $69.5
One month ago: $76.2
October 1: $83

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Won’t be long when it will be 100$ as Trafigura  predicted... And then, electric vehicle.

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