Tom Kirkman

My rebuttal to Standard Chartered's word salad about the recent oil price decline

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My visual tl;dr rebuttal:



I maintain my hope for an average of $65 oil for 2018 and $70 oil for 2019.  Hrrrrmmmphhh.  $80 oil / $100+ oil is simply not sustainable, in my opinion.  Your mileage may vary.



Here's Standard Chartered's word salad:

“Oil prices are currently being driven by a disparate mix of factors. The overall macroeconomic context remains central, in particular market concerns about trade,” Standard Charted wrote in a note. “As was seen last week, oil prices rarely weather any abrupt changes in investor risk preferences.”

“[W]e think that one of the major factors that is leading to a scaling back of long positions is a reappraisal of short-term fundamentals by investors. We think a significant degree of money entered the market on the view that the Q4 global supply-demand balance was likely to be tight enough as to be the single dominant driver of prices.”

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