What's happening in the Neutral Zone with Kuwait and Saudi Arabia

Hmmmm? A few years ago over squabbling 500,000 bpd went off-line, and those best friends, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia cannot come to turns, so it just sits there. And what has Kuwait just done. 

As MBS flexes, surprise, most of his neighbors get nervous.

Rather than becoming vassal states the neighbors look for other alternatives.

  • Yemen, yes, they successfully have excursions in the Kingdom, the Houthies aren't fans of Iran, it's just a common enemy.
  • Qatar, what was MBS thinking? That he can just run over the largest US military installation in the region, and the only reason the US is there instead of Saudi is because the Kingdom can't be seen needing Americans soldiers on their soil. I can't wait for the moat he's going to build (breath held). So Qatar signed an agreement with Turkey, who has troops positioned. Maybe not NATO's finest, but they are somewhat seasoned from Syria and the Kurds and match up without almost any other military in the region.
  • And now Kuwait has signed agreement with Turkey. The Kingdom is creating enemies it didn't have (not Turkey, Kuwait).

The Saudis invest copious amounts of petrodollars into Foggy Bottom (ground zero for Washington DC lobbyist), but those kinds of friendships don't last, and they are expensive. 

I don't get the Iran fetish, but perhaps MBS should remember the Ottoman's ruled Arabia a hell of a lot longer than Iran did, and he is inviting them onto his borders. And he should note the U.A.E. does a lot of business with Iran. Far more than Qatar ever did, and Qatar has to be friends because of the shared assets.

What's next? At what point does the other shoe drop and the Kingdom says enough is enough? I don't think they can, so it's going to be a strange ride for a while. 

So, who's going to Davos in the Desert? It's shaping up to resemble the IPO, another MBS success story.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

The speed with which everyone's been pulling out of this event is staggering, which tells me this time someone really, really messed up. Things will continue to be interesting for a while.

Edit: Ah, the squabbling for the throne has begun (or merely intensified?): https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20181019-saudi-prince-the-king-ordered-khashoggis-death-and-mohammed-bin-salman-carried-it-out/

Edited by Marina Schwarz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I bet three weeks from now it will back to business as usual. I don't expect the prince to fall because of Khashoggi. The kingdom will be fine as long as the cash keeps flowing, and they have a substantial reserve of cash, for now.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0