$70 Oil [Brent] Continues to be My Hope for 2019

My hope for 2018 was an average of $65 oil (Brent).

My hope for 2019 is an average of $70 (Brent).

These are my own hopes and NOT price predictions.  And I have been repeating these 2 numbers ad nauseum this entire year.  

 I remain consistent in my hope for a "relative balance" between supply & demand, with oil prices not too high to hurt the global economy, and not too low to hurt the long-term viability of oil companies.

Currently, the markets seem confused.  I don't give a toss about the murkiness of oil trader shenanigans and maneuverings.  I'm sticking with my hope for $70 oil  [Brent]  for 2019.

Just my opinion; as always, you are free to disagree. 

Anyway, enjoy this article by Art Berman:

Why Oil Prices Could Still Go Lower

Crude markets had a panic attack in August and September that sent prices soaring. Sanity is now returning. Prices have fallen but are likely to move even lower over the next few months.

The panic attack was caused largely by Trump’s August 7 announcement that sanctions would be re-imposed on Iran. Anxiety about the effect on oil supply and prices was reasonable but the reaction was hysterical.

... The last time a secular shift like this occurred was in early 2014. The previous deficit shifted to supply growth in the first quarter of 2014. Prices, however, remained above $100 until the third quarter. Brent begin to fall in earnest and then collapsed during the fourth quarter of 2014.

I am not suggesting that another oil price collapse is going to occur in 2019. I am saying that data indicates that lower rather than higher oil prices are more likely going forward.

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News update 2 months later:

OPEC will cut output further if oil prices fail to recover: Algerian energy minister

Algeria's energy minister said he was confident oil prices will return to between $65 and $70 a barrel by April, but stressed that the OPEC alliance would cut production further if the market had not responded by then.

"If the situation requires a further reduction, we will do it," Algerian energy minister Mustapha Guitouni said Sunday in Algiers, according to the official APS agency, in response to the plunge in oil prices which has seen benchmark Brent crude drop from $86 a barrel in October to close to $50 a barrel at the end of 2018.

Guitouni said he believed the $65-$70 to be the goldilocks price -- the one that seems optimal for producers and consumers -- even though OPEC has repeatedly emphasized it does not target prices but focuses on supply and demand fundamentals, with stock levels being a guide to market balancing. ...

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I hope it goes up to 86 as I am trading 

 

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5 hours ago, Mell O Shea said:

I hope it goes up to 86 as I am trading 

 

In my view, $86 oil is not sustainable.  But then again, I am more interested in the long term global outlook than in short term trading spikes and drops.

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