WTI Heading for $60

[William Edwards + 708]

9 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Some longer term perspective, 1861 to 2017:

Thanks for presenting this price perspective, Tom. You should probably repeat this display monthly. Eventually some observers will catch on that $50 oil is well above historical averages. Recognition of this fact will result in a new understanding, that the price trend from here is down, not up.

[BillKidd + 139]

7 minutes ago, William Edwards said:

Thanks for presenting this price perspective, Tom. You should probably repeat this display monthly. Eventually some observers will catch on that $50 oil is well above historical averages. Recognition of this fact will result in a new understanding, that the price trend from here is down, not up.

Mr. Edwards, eyeballing that chart, looks like $20 to $30 has been the 'normal' range over time. Now, if it goes to that range and stays there, it seems to me that the US shale industry is toast. They may already be toast but at that price range, nobody is going to be throwing money at them. So, without US shale oil, does the rest of the world have enough supply? What would happen with prices absent US shale?

[William Edwards + 708]

16 minutes ago, BillKidd said:

Mr. Edwards, eyeballing that chart, looks like $20 to $30 has been the 'normal' range over time. Now, if it goes to that range and stays there, it seems to me that the US shale industry is toast. They may already be toast but at that price range, nobody is going to be throwing money at them. So, without US shale oil, does the rest of the world have enough supply? What would happen with prices absent US shale?

To answer your question, Bill, you have to supply the other piece of the supply/demand balance -- demand. Will we have a worldwide, demand destroying depression? Will electric cars really take off? Will unknown technologies dramatically alter current demand factors? Also, what about the unknowns of the supply side. Will the offshore reserves yet to be discovered in the  continental gap between Africa and the Americas impact the balance? As you can see, it is rather difficult to pinpoint specific factors, so we have no quantitative assessments of any accuracy available to us. The fundamental factor at work, however, is revealed in Tom's history lesson -- the system will adapt. There will always be enough oil.

[BillKidd + 139]

4 minutes ago, William Edwards said:

To answer your question, Bill, you have to supply the other piece of the supply/demand balance -- demand. Will we have a worldwide, demand destroying depression? Will electric cars really take off? Will unknown technologies dramatically alter current demand factors? Also, what about the unknowns of the supply side. Will the offshore reserves yet to be discovered in the  continental gap between Africa and the Americas impact the balance? As you can see, it is rather difficult to pinpoint specific factors, so we have no quantitative assessments of any accuracy available to us. The fundamental factor at work, however, is revealed in Tom's history lesson -- the system will adapt. There will always be enough oil.

Sir, the emboldened part above, what do you mean by that? Where is this? Are you talking about the continental plate margins between the continents? If so, isn't that in the middle of the Atlantic ocean? If so, seems it would be several miles deep. And if that is what you mean, do you see that as accessible in the future?

[fOILed + 9]

3 hours ago, ATK said:

I'd say just a bounce, analyst expecting an 8th week of crude builds

Are you? Any insights on shipping to add? 

 I think a build under 2million wll be favorably received- price-wise, but more than that we may be heading towards 52 by week's end

[ATK + 355]

26 minutes ago, fOILed said:

Are you? Any insights on shipping to add? 

 I think a build under 2million wll be favorably received- price-wise, but more than that we may be heading towards 52 by week's end

I am, rig count has only been increasimg, US exports are down from last week according to recent shipping data, most analyst expecting another build as well. Really no reason, at least currently, that I can think of how we could see a draw this week. We'll see what the API report shows

[William Edwards + 708]

1 hour ago, BillKidd said:

Sir, the emboldened part above, what do you mean by that? Where is this? Are you talking about the continental plate margins between the continents? If so, isn't that in the middle of the Atlantic ocean? If so, seems it would be several miles deep. And if that is what you mean, do you see that as accessible in the future?

Sorry for not being clear. I am referring to the continental shelf on each side of the 

Atlantic. Guyana and Brazil, for example, on this side. Equatorial Guinea and Angola on the other side.

[William Edwards + 708]

35 minutes ago, ATK said:

I am, rig count has only been increasimg, US exports are down from last week according to recent shipping data, most analyst expecting another build as well. Really no reason, at least currently, that I can think of how we could see a draw this week. We'll see what the API report shows

May I supply one reason why it may drop? These weekly numbers are randomly unreliable. Leave out one terminal operator's report and inventories might fall, although they will be restored the next week.

[ATK + 355]

8 minutes ago, William Edwards said:

May I supply one reason why it may drop? These weekly numbers are randomly unreliable. Leave out one terminal operator's report and inventories might fall, although they will be restored the next week.

We aren't trading based on actual inventory numbers, but rather, numbers that most closely reflect what EIA reports. Who knows how acurate these numbers really are, but as long as it's the report the market pays most attention too, those are the numbers we are going with lol

[William Edwards + 708]

14 minutes ago, ATK said:

We aren't trading based on actual inventory numbers, but rather, numbers that most closely reflect what EIA reports. Who knows how acurate these numbers really are, but as long as it's the report the market pays most attention too, those are the numbers we are going with lol

Yes. You are verifying my long-time observation that reality does not matter in futures trading, only perception.

 

[Oilfuturestrader + 10]

ATK The US Rig is 1081... if we increase to 1090 .. you think we sell hard more down to 50?

[ATK + 355]

12 minutes ago, William Edwards said:

Yes. You are verifying my long-time observation that reality does not matter in futures trading, only perception.

 

Exactly! Who needs reality when you can make money just the same lol

[ATK + 355]

API reporting an 8.3 million barrel build, that's a spicy meatball right there. With API running error of about 2 million barrels, EIA will likely report somewhere in the 6 million barrel region. Tomorrow will tell!

[fOILed + 9]

yeah thats big and makes me wonder when the few talking about maintenance season coming to an end and Saudi exports to US plummetting will start changing their tune in regards to how it will effect storage numbers in the US. 

 I think WTI drops under $52 (by Monday) if there is a confirmation of a sizeable build tomorrow from EIA

[Rodent + 1,424]

13 minutes ago, ATK said:

API reporting an 8.3 million barrel build, that's a spicy meatball right there. With API running error of about 2 million barrels, EIA will likely report somewhere in the 6 million barrel region. Tomorrow will tell!

I'm not too confident that EIAs data (which is a forecast of an estimate) is much more accurate than API's. 

[fOILed + 9]

I agree, but it seems to get more of a reaction in terms of price movement. Perhaps it is just because of the confirmation effect, or someitmes lack thereof.

[ATK + 355]

15 minutes ago, Rodent said:

I'm not too confident that EIAs data (which is a forecast of an estimate) is much more accurate than API's. 

As I said to @William Edwards, we are not trading off of accurate crude numbers, need to rip that band aid off right now, but rather we are trading off of what the market deems most important. If the market based oil price movement off of a groundhog seeing it's shadow, you're damn well I'll be the first one parking my ass in front of that hole.

I think for the most part though these reports do reflect general trends in supply and demand, they may not be exact, but are pretty close

Edited November 14, 2018 by ATK

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

2 hours ago, William Edwards said:

Yes. You are verifying my long-time observation that reality does not matter in futures trading, only perception.

 

It is getting to the point that reality does not much matter on anything at all in society.  Moving past politics, I note that there is this movement among the limousine liberals to institute a "carbon tax," the idea being that to tax oil products will reduce their use.  the reality is that nobody today is spending their dollars buying gasoline just to go drive aimlessly around; people (very begrudgingly) buy gasoline because they totally, utterly, absolutely, need it to drive to work and collect the groceries.  The idea that you put the price up and you decrease consumption is devoid of reality.  All that the carbon tax does is remove even more dollars from residual income of the working poor.  Just lovely. 

[fOILed + 9]

8 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

It is getting to the point that reality does not much matter on anything at all in society.  Moving past politics, I note that there is this movement among the limousine liberals to institute a "carbon tax," the idea being that to tax oil products will reduce their use.  the reality is that nobody today is spending their dollars buying gasoline just to go drive aimlessly around; people (very begrudgingly) buy gasoline because they totally, utterly, absolutely, need it to drive to work and collect the groceries.  The idea that you put the price up and you decrease consumption is devoid of reality.  All that the carbon tax does is remove even more dollars from residual income of the working poor.  Just lovely. 

No point in using logic or rationale to try and explain away a perfectly well established emotional argument!

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

16 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Some longer term perspective, 1861 to 2017:

Nice, but I think a few other markings are needed.  Off the top of my head is when natural rubber was almost entirely eliminated in favor of petroleum based plastics for many applications - and when the industrial production of large quantity of various plastics were introduced in general.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

9 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

Nice, but I think a few other markings are needed.  Off the top of my head is when natural rubber was almost entirely eliminated in favor of petroleum based plastics for many applications - and when the industrial production of large quantity of various plastics were introduced in general.

BP made the summary graph, not me.  This graph is only one tiny part of BP's Annual Statistical Review of World Energy.  See their report for a much bigger overall view and historical data.

[ATK + 355]

Let's see if EIA confirms APIs report!

[Omoba Aero + 1]

its nice to be in here amongst the right community.

[ATK + 355]

Oh look a pump before the EIA report, surely the bulls are ready to take charge and have nothing to worry about lol

[Oilfuturestrader + 10]

Yeah man looks like a trap to me..