Battery costs according to Bloomberg

[DA? + 301]

An article here on oilprice's home page is written using bloomberg as a source on the future of batteries. I went back to Bloomberg's article to find out more. Not that I did find out much more. Basically they state that by 2040 940 gigawatts of battery storage will be on line and by 2030 the price of batteries (lithium-ion) will have dropped by 52%. The article doesn't say how it reached these figures. The one I have most issue is the cost drop of 52%,what cost figure are they using as I have seen many analyst quoting out of date data (saw here the other day on an article saying the amount of EV's sold in the USA was around 100,000 per year, that was beaten back in 2014). Also how did they come to 52%, in the last 8 years it has fallen 80%. They talk somewhat vaguely about the technology trend flattening out, but his goes against the evidence. There is no sign yet that this tech has reached the top region of the "S" curve. In fact with all the investment being poured into it the reasonable assumption would be there will be a considerable improvement in this field, although it may well end up not being lithium-ion but a different chemistry. Bloomberg as most other traditional analyst have been very poor on their forecasts and it looks like this will be no different. Is it they don't understand how technology advances or they don't want to upset their reader base with the truth?

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

2 hours ago, DA? said:

In fact with all the investment being poured into it the reasonable assumption would be there will be a considerable improvement in this field, although it may well end up not being lithium-ion but a different chemistry. Bloomberg as most other traditional analyst have been very poor on their forecasts and it looks like this will be no different. Is it they don't understand how technology advances or they don't want to upset their reader base with the truth?

It is a foregone conclusion that the chemistry will be different.  But that is only part of the story.  What will happen is that several different and competing chemistries will be developed and sold, designed for different purposes.  Even a mundane product such as diesel or jet-fuel is not uniform; there are different blends manufactured for different purposes.  The diesel you buy in Florida is quite different from the stuff sold in winter in New York or Michigan.  The Bloomberg guys are good a finance and juggling debt instruments; but remember, those are not MIT types, so they have little comprehension as to technical stuff.  

P.S.   for non-USA readers:  "MIT" is "Massachusetts Institute of Technology," the premier technology university in America.