Nigeria brace for 2020

NIGERIA BRACING FOR 2020.

The maojor sustainance of the Nigeria Economy is doubtlessly the Oil and gas sector,Apart from being the most exploited industry,its contributions to the GDP of the nation cannnot be over emphasized. 

Oil crisis has formed a major part of the Global economic history,from the building of the first tanker ship"Elizabeth Watts in 1861 to the infamous "Seawise giant" in the 70s.

Lets cast our minds back to the Oil boom and Glut around the 1920s and 1970s respectively. The 1960s~1970s brurs the formation of the the OPEC,by the Five Dive: 

Venezuela,
Iran,
Iraq
Kuwait and 
Saudi Arabia. 

In the early 1920s,the Global economy experience a major oil boom,Rockerfeller's Standard oil Trust and others,now,due to this,there was more request on ship new builds in the 60s,as expected,more vessels would be needed to transport the crude oil.

However,this boom led to a drop in oil price to less than 5$ per barrel, the OPEC nation was constantly threatened by the OECD countries.

During the oil boom,many business men placed orders on new tanker builds/ships,but in 1973 during the cut-down in oil production by OPEC,the oil price rose drastically,now this singular action affected two sensitive industries which controls 85% of the Global economy.

1. The Tanker Market.
2. The oil and Gas industry.

There was low demand of oil due ti the hike in its price by OPEC,the tanker that was newly built entered an empty market,freight rates dropped to an all time low price,a major downturn in the economy,as the Danish would say"Business gone south".

As a people,we must be very wary knowing that our major source of revenue is from the Oil mono. As such we must brace for the worst.
However,one point i must establish is to expose you to the fact that the Oil and Gas industry does not operate in isolation,it is directly affected by the Maritime Industry,infact they function par-par.

I will try to be lay as possible.
The IMO has given its regulation to implement its cleaner fuel for merchant ships by 2020.

Read this:

"The International Maritime Organization on October 27 announced it was going ahead with a global sulfur cap of 0.5% on marine fuels starting from January 1, 2020, ending years of 
uncertainty. 

Under the terms of the IMO’s MARPOL Annex VI regulation, the 2020 date was “subject to a review, to be completed by 2018, as to 
the availability of the required fuel oil. Depending on the outcome of the review, this date could be deferred to 1 January 2025.” 
Now that the 2020 date has been confirmed by the IMO, a sharply more regulated shipping emissions sector looms into view in 
the near term. The current global sulfur cap on bunker fuel is much less stringent at 3.5%. The sharp, step change down to tighter sulfur specifications at sea will have knock-on effects throughout the global energy system, including on road fuels.The cost of the IMO’s regulatory change on the shipping industry is unknown, but every analyst expects it to be large. As well as shipping lines, the IMO’s decision will also impact refiners, Crude producers, bunker suppliers, and emissions and air quality 
affecting the health of millions of people"

Presently,there are about 18,000 tanker vessels globally,this means that these vessels may not be allowed to trade international waters,although new builds will be have to be equipped with scrubbers which is very expensive, and we trust our business men to adhere as well as their compliance with the cabotage act of 2004.

EXPECTED IMPACTS BY 2020
1.Few vessels would be operational.
2. High demand of Crude oil
3. High Scrapping
4. Scrap Market Boom.

As a Government,we must be prepared to see to pro-active measures which must be taken to ameliorate this impact,while we may not be able to avoid the hike by 2020, machineries must be in place as its not too early to start planning.

As a Mariner,i will implore for the establishment of more Local refineries,and maybe the Licensing of Modular refineries to boost oil Production,like what we are already seeing in Lagos and Akwa ibom states. I want to also use this medium to indulge the Minister of Transport to release the CCVF funds meant for private shipowners to enable them prepare for this unavoidable situation.

It's two years earlier now.
Let's start now.

Penned by Diamond.
 

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