Tom Kirkman

And Just Like That, Everybody Stopped Talking About $100 Oil

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weaker dollar drives oil prices, and american dollar is doomed

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Oil will go up as Middle East needs cash to build cities 

If there is nothing to build they then play games to destroy other country economies 

at present time wealth is at a peak for top 5 percent of the world the ones who make decisions 

The value u see oil indicates a new war is starting

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Again, compare it to coffee beans, which grow from trees and are easily harvested, roasted, ground and used to make a cup of Starbucks latte. Conversely, it takes over a million years to make a cup of oil from organic material under ideal pressures and temperatures, and it's very complicated to get out of the ground and handle. If you use the Starbucks comparison, a barrel of light sweet crude from oil shale should be selling for roughly $4,000. Therein lies the problem: For way too long we had to import oil. It bubbled to the surface in Saudi Arabia, making their royal family insanely wealthy but starving their commoners. As oil became harder to get, the Saudis kept prices low. Then they began pumping in sea water to maintain their production status. We began drilling unconventional wells. Somehow oil prices got stuck in the mud. People ask me all the time, "What price do the fundamentals support?" Well, in reality, the fundamentals suggest a price of . . . . . . $4,000 a barrel. Now that'll take care of any fossil fuel contribution to global climate change!

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As to global climate change, dinosaurs had multiple stomachs like cows. They burped methane gas. Can you imagine the amount of methane a dinosaur burped? One young wet behind the ears thug was right: this board is made up of old guys like me, irrelevant and waiting to die. Except not quite. Not before I publish my theory that the dinosaurs all died from methane gas production of such a degree that global warming killed them off. Why else would they have congregated at ancient seabeds? They wanted a drink. See what kind of permutations the aging mind can develop. Live and learn. And don't forget that damn Starbucks analogy!

For the record, the ratio between NG and crude was--for years--11:1. If $4 is the right price for NG, then $44 is the right price for a barrel of oil. But the world has changed--even I can see that. The real price for NG should be about $8, and the real price for a barrel of oil should be about $88. I tell you, kids, the prices for these nonrenewable resources got severely out of balance several decades ago, and they still are. A lot of this is OUR fault. After all these years, we still have NO energy policy in this country. Our president talks the price of oil down every time it gets up to a reasonable level. I guess he doesn't realize that about five million people in this country work in the fossil fuel business in some capacity, or own minerals, overrides, royalties. If you add those holding shares of oil and gas companies and units of MLPs, that goes to about twenty million. I submit that most of those people voted for the president. Kind of like all those soybean farmers who now have no market and are stockpiling this year's crop, what do you think will happen when all those people start going broke at one time?

 

I'll tell you: The price of NG will go to about $8 and the price of a barrel of crude will go to about $88. Either that or we'll have a huge depression. And if prices go to the floor again, Saudi Arabia will go broke, because they need only about ten bucks to lift a barrel of oil but a price of $70-80 to support their welfare state. Without it, the Middle East will erupt. 

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5 hours ago, J S said:

whats up with all the old dudes thinking they understand the world of today with yesterdays news. most on this board are armchair relics waiting to die from irrelevance. its annoying when you want real information instead of some old coots dream of what the world used to be like. 

  • The collective farts of all the old right wing dudes hitting thumbs up to each other posting messages on the board would crash Natural Gas prices back down to 3 bucks.  It exceeds all the methane produced by cows.   We need to liquify their farts and sell it.

 

8c624ff762e0da8aefd9c579ff2d00fabbbdd91c160b3d16a607e9a2178973cf.jpg

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$100 oil!!!

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(edited)

On ‎11‎/‎21‎/‎2018 at 3:36 PM, SERWIN said:

I have a Mustang with a 305

When did Ford start using  Chevy Engines? :D

Edited by Cowpoke
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whats now? I am having some orders of buying USOIL valued USD 30,000 at the price 64, now it drops to 54. WHat should I do now? 

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It is going down 

usoil-d1-primus-markets-intl-2.png

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If you compare with last 2 years oil prices WTI $60+ is higher side

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On 11/22/2018 at 3:04 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

U.S. indie oil producers scattered all over the country are generally a fiercely independent herd of cats.

Herding kittens for photoshoot | YouTube

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On ‎11‎/‎22‎/‎2018 at 2:04 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

U.S. indie oil producers scattered all over the country are generally a fiercely independent herd of cats.

U.S. law does not allow U.S. companies to join price fixing cartels such as OPEC.

Tom,

Texas Law allows the Texas Railroad Commission to regulate output in Texas which was done from about 1935 to 1970.

In some sense, Texas was the World's swing producer over that period, Saudi Arabia took over this role after 1975, though oil prices have not been as stable for a number of reasons.

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Tom,

Also agree perhaps $70 is the right price, it is not clear that price results in enough production to satisfy needed consumption of oil. I tend to think we will need $80/b by 2020, but I am not an oil industry insider and may well be incorrect.

Perhaps $75/b+/-$10/b will be the right price (Brent 12 month average price in 2019).

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