The Selloff of 2018

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Shorts are going to have the fattest turkey they can buy on Thanksgiving.  Watch a ball game, take a snooze.  Relax.  Longs are having chicken soup and watching the game at the bar "with a tear in their beer".

[aakash kapoor + 16]

 

Long on 52.89, hoping it bounces quickly

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Just now, aakash kapoor said:

 

Long on 52.89, hoping it bounces quickly

Well, it will go high again, just a matter of when.......

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

All the indexes are down hard today.  Blood in the streets!  

[Rodent + 1,424]

5 minutes ago, aakash kapoor said:

 

Long on 52.89, hoping it bounces quickly

It will bounce as soon as Al-Falih decides that the price is below what their budget can withstand. I suspect rather soon.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Just now, Rodent said:

It will bounce as soon as Al-Falih decides that the price is below what their budget can withstand. I suspect rather soon.

I agree.  Expect some firm announcements out of Riyadh, and all of OPEC will suddenly agree with everything they say.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Fact is, the prices aren't really that low in the greater scheme of things.  It's just that they dropped so fast and all of OPEC and Russia is feeling really duped, to put it nicely, right now.  They will react I believe.

[Rodent + 1,424]

Just now, Dan Warnick said:

I agree.  Expect some firm announcements out of Riyadh, and all of OPEC will suddenly agree with everything they say.

Russia will have to get on board too. I'm not sure Saudi Arabia (OPEC) is willing to shoulder a production cut by itself. I'm sure there is some backroom deal cooking right now, with the Saudi's having to give up something to Russia in exchange for them being on board. Russia has already let it slide that they are not eager to do more cutting.

[Rodent + 1,424]

They're already setting the stage, I believe, with the UAE coming out today saying that they "think" that OPEC will agree on a cut next month.Next will be someone confirming that thought. Then the official announcement. Rinse, lather, repeat.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Just now, Rodent said:

They're already setting the stage, I believe, with the UAE coming out today saying that they "think" that OPEC will agree on a cut next month.Next will be someone confirming that thought. Then the official announcement. Rinse, lather, repeat.

They've all said it softly, so far.  My guess is the valves are already being turned and by the time they make their announcements next month we will be able to count the ships and check the water lines to see they've already started cutting.

[Rodent + 1,424]

Nat gas also on a losing streak. Anyone trading that today short?

[Oilfuturestrader + 10]

We hitting 50 baby!! I know it I can smell it

[A/Plague + 50]

12 hours ago, Rodent said:

Nat gas also on a losing streak. Anyone trading that today short?

looking for idiots? 😀

[Oilfuturestrader + 10]

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Halt-Slide-After-API-Reports-Small-Crude-Draw.html

[Oilfuturestrader + 10]

Could we have our first draw in weeks?

[Oilfuturestrader + 10]

If Saudis don't cut massively..  50 dollar oil on the horizon 

[A/Plague + 50]

On 11/22/2018 at 7:21 PM, Oilfuturestrader said:

 

 

Edited December 14, 2018 by A/Plague

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

a shame i dont continue this post.

I was at the airport going home, no laptop, i gave me two laptops away while i was in the middle east. So now im at the airport with a phone and my acct, and im deciding well i dont really have my charts here, can i look at the account trading software which is weak and make a crude trade between the flights. so i look at it and i see a short, take 1 short, close $700 profits in 10 minutes. wow that was easy. 12 hours later as i get of next flight i look again and wait i knew it would be going up, so i wait take 2 lot, and get on next flight i started being down 20 bucks, before i get on plane im up 440, after short flight check the acct again im up 1470 i close and get in cab home. 

So at this point i really dont need 17 screens to trade crude i really just need a phone. and i can usually quickly see the direction. Now that im back home, what a delight to see the charts again.

But so you understand, i will never create a website showing how i do it. However my goal is to take a $350 account and turn it into 100k. I think i could probably do it now, but will wait  a little longer, as im getting in and out.  my 55 target unfortuanately was not the low, and even here its not the low. even though daily i do see the retrace i rarely bother in last week to go for the retrace. IN many cases its about $1.

Whats funny is i get offers to trade currencies as a prop trader now, but since i got  so good in oil, in one account im up 27k on 7 shorts, its really hard to trade currencies now. and i cant find any shop for crude, so i have to do it on my own. 

 

ONe thing is sure, if you are still a beginner or even if you have many years behind you, trading crude raw, is not a game for   everyone, now if you do options like some people do here, well with just $200 a well place long or short, if placed against the prevailing view, can get you a nice return. I would say options is safer, and i noticed after a while, that indeed many of you most of you trade only toptions, specially if your are still guessing, and its less riksy since u need like a 10th the captial to trade options that to trade the raw  contract. but in many cases an option that is up in the morning will be down in the afternoon, with a loss.

 

 

 

[Oilfuturestrader + 10]

OIL JUST WOKE UP AND REALIZED THE 4.5 MILLION BUILD WAS NOT GOOD FOR THE MARKET. We JUST HIT 50!!!!! IS 40 NEXT?

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Anyone have any thoughts on where the bottom of this little dip might be?  I foresee a run back up to $75 +/- $5 and I am thinking about a new long options position.  I do verticals, by the way, hoping to limit my risk as much as possible.

[Oilfuturestrader + 10]

7 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Anyone have any thoughts on where the bottom of this little dip might be?  I foresee a run back up to $75 +/- $5 and I am thinking about a new long options position.  I do verticals, by the way, hoping to limit my risk as much as possible.

I think in the 40s.....

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

54 minutes ago, Oilfuturestrader said:

I think in the 40s.....

It may well be at this rate.  Anyone else?

[Rebel44 + 7]

8 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

It may well be at this rate.  Anyone else?

It depends on the OPEC meeting in December - will they cut? Will Russia, Libya etc. participate in oil cut? If they cut production, by how much? 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

10 hours ago, Rebel44 said:

It depends on the OPEC meeting in December - will they cut? Will Russia, Libya etc. participate in oil cut? If they cut production, by how much? 

I'm hearing opinions that KSA is already cutting and by the time the December meeting is finished we will be able to see a few less ships due to less fulfilled orders, and we should be able to see the water line on the ships indicating smaller loads.  If we do indeed start seeing these things by the time the meeting is finished it will indicate they were indeed cutting as far back as now (delay from orders to shipments of product).  And then ALL OPEC members will participate; they always want higher prices AND more sales, no matter what, and it's usually the Saudis and politics that make them agree to lower price machinations, and even cuts as a last resort.  Remember, their time is limited by pipeline under-capacity in North America, mainly the U.S., and all that is slated to change from late 2019 throughout 2020.

I'm hearing figures ranging from 1.5 to 2.25 million barrels in cuts.  If they go this route, and it is quite possible that they may given the way they got duped by Mr. Trump, they will no doubt cause a shock and drive prices very high indeed.  How high?  $70+ for WTI.

Then, as the pipelines in NA come online, the prices will once again fall until there is a drop off in shale production, if/when that happens and for whatever reason(s).

[oilexpert.nl + 36]

On 11/23/2018 at 4:55 PM, Dan Warnick said:

It may well be at this rate.  Anyone else?

DW describes it nicely. Short term I believe prices to remain weak. Another 2-4 % down from todays levels in coming 10 days. Here I see a potential bottom. The downward trend is still in tact now. Traders are free to take any position, however they have not all made money during this huge drop..... I believe traders will be cautious; any price increase this week used to build short positions.  I do believe current market is overreacting now (upward trend takes months, downward in days). I will take small a long position today and triple this after the next drop. As DW refers to the future cuts I am sure I will not hit the bottom, but rather leave some money on the table and cash the upward trend as from first half december. I posted 2 market comments on this site 3 weeks ago (just check it) and got it right on the downward trend and the Iranian waivers, but I invested (too) small amount regretfully. We will see on this one.

I mention this as above JJ seems to be knowledgeable (looking at his figures, he is). Contrary to his statement I am building a website now, ready in 3 months, where you can see all my oil trades together with daily and total results. I will start with 10 K trading, 50 K in total for the margins as I wil trade options and futures. In Europe we want (are looking) to invest in trading websites with transparent positions and results. I want to fill this gap. I will keep you updated and hopefully we all make money in 2019.