Russia Expects $50 Oil by 2025 - and Stay Around $50 Long Term

Is Russia perhaps trying to dissuade competing nations from investing heavily in expensive Arctic Oil exploration, by stating that long term oil prices will be $50 forever by 2025?  (Russia didn't actually say $50 forever, that's just my paraphrase of Russia's "estimates".)

Russia is fiercely staking out claims to oil in the Arctic, and doesn't particularly want other countries nosing around for oil in the Arctic.

Russia’s Arctic Strategy: Military and Security (Part II)

Russia’s Arctic Strategy: Energy Extraction (Part III)

 

With that in mind, here is today's news:

Russian economy minister expects oil price to slip to $50 per barrel by 2025-2030

Russia’s Economic Development Ministry expects the oil price to slip to $50 per barrel by 2025-2030 and stay at that level long-term, the Minister Maksim Oreshkin said following the government meeting that considered the social and economic development until 2036 on Thursday.

"The first trend is connected with the dynamics on the commodities markets. We expect a rather substantial drop, a rather low level of prices for main commodities over the long-term. According to our estimates, prices will be at around $50 per barrel by 2025-2030 and stay at that level in real terms further on," he said.
 

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If oil demand is going where some say it's going, it's possible. But so stable? It's hard to believe it for oil. 

Who else besides Russia and Norway is actually drilling in the Arctic right now? I mean, is there any real competition or they are preparing for the future, just in case some emerges? 

I liked this: "Such statistics are often used to back up the academic and journalistic hype over an impending competition for the Arctic’s natural resources, even though estimates show that only a small amount of undiscovered resources are in disputed territories."

Media! Bad!

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I would trust the hacienda hedge a lot more than official Russian statements... Maybe even worth a new thread... 

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