Meanwhile in Alberta: Trains, More Trains!

22 minutes ago, Marina Schwarz said:

Notley says Alberta will buy rail cars to move oil, wants Ottawa to chip in

Where are the protesters blocking rail tracks is what I'd like to know.

From the article:

"Coca-Cola sells sugar-flavoured water for more. We are essentially giving our oil away for free," Notley said.

 

And from a different article:

... It was Prime Minister Justin Trudeau himself who said in Hanuary 2017: “We can’t shut down the oilsands tomorrow. We need to phase them out. We need to manage the transition off of our dependence on fossil fuels.

“That is going to take time. And, in the meantime, we have to manage that transition.”

... Boxed in, increasingly reliant on overstressed rail, beset by unending hostility in B.C. and berated by U.S. competitors, the typical barrel of Alberta oil now sells for a fraction of workd prices.

We’re at the stage where some producers (not refiners) are willing to shit in their own barrels in order to drive prices back up.

And that, of course, is exactly what the anti-oilsands people want; a product so valueless that it’s simply left in the ground.

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8 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

From the article:

"Coca-Cola sells sugar-flavoured water for more. We are essentially giving our oil away for free," Notley said.

 

And from a different article:

... It was Prime Minister Justin Trudeau himself who said in Hanuary 2017: “We can’t shut down the oilsands tomorrow. We need to phase them out. We need to manage the transition off of our dependence on fossil fuels.

“That is going to take time. And, in the meantime, we have to manage that transition.”

... Boxed in, increasingly reliant on overstressed rail, beset by unending hostility in B.C. and berated by U.S. competitors, the typical barrel of Alberta oil now sells for a fraction of workd prices.

We’re at the stage where some producers (not refiners) are willing to shit in their own barrels in order to drive prices back up.

And that, of course, is exactly what the anti-oilsands people want; a product so valueless that it’s simply left in the ground.

Uh, Tom?  You might want to proof read that once again.......

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Just now, Dan Warnick said:

Uh, Tom?  You might want to proof read that once again.......

Oh, that's why you quoted it, isn't it?  Never mind....

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But they're not leaving it in the ground, they're shipping it. Railing it. The greens must be unhappy about it. 

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2 minutes ago, Marina Schwarz said:

But they're not leaving it in the ground, they're shipping it. Railing it. The greens must be unhappy about it. 

Yep.  You probably aren't far off the mark asking about protestors blocking railroad tracks.

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High time. Just paralyse the whole industry, that'll show 'em!

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1 hour ago, Marina Schwarz said:

But they're not leaving it in the ground, they're shipping it. Railing it. The greens must be unhappy about it. 

Image result for picture of a train crash with oil

No the greens may well be not to happy.

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8 minutes ago, DA? said:

Image result for picture of a train crash with oil

No the greens may well be not to happy.

Sometimes I wonder:  What does it feel like to be a pebble in someone's shoe?  Does it give the pebble a sense of self-worth?  Does it make the pebble "feel" like it has a purpose in life?  Or is it like, I don't know, the pebble just feels good knowing it is making the person wearing the shoe feel uncomfortable, knowing they cannot take the pebble out of their shoe?

And then I think of how the pebble feels and, well, bless his little heart.

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Canadian Hardisty light oil fell from around $60 this summer to... $6 now.

How long can they sustain this price ?

 

image.png.75f25ff4a18ad081880c7f16dedf212d.png

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1 hour ago, Dan Warnick said:

Sometimes I wonder:  What does it feel like to be a pebble in someone's shoe?  Does it give the pebble a sense of self-worth?  Does it make the pebble "feel" like it has a purpose in life?  Or is it like, I don't know, the pebble just feels good knowing it is making the person wearing the shoe feel uncomfortable, knowing they cannot take the pebble out of their shoe?

And then I think of how the pebble feels and, well, bless his little heart.

I maybe a insignificant pebble easily thrown aside but it happens this little pebble is part of larger collective, a massive beech that is now turning back the sea of fossil fuels. And like a small little pebble, I'm quite tough and remarks like that just wash off me.

How does it feel to be on the wrong side of history, that future generations will judge and find wanting?

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5 minutes ago, DA? said:

I maybe a insignificant pebble easily thrown aside but it happens this little pebble is part of larger collective, a massive beech that is now turning back the sea of fossil fuels. And like a small little pebble, I'm quite tough and remarks like that just wash off me.

How does it feel to be on the wrong side of history, that future generations will judge and find wanting?

But you aren't an insignificant pebble easily thrown aside; just ask yourself!  You're part of a larger collective, a massive beech?  Oh, dear!  Whatever shall we do?  I like tough guys.  😘

Writing history now, are you?  Well, please try to get my good side.  Just exactly how long does it take to get to the future in your time machine?  Seriously.  I might have some time next week and I'd like to go talk to the future generations.  Now that I think about it, I like judges, too.  😘

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15 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

But you aren't an insignificant pebble easily thrown aside; just ask yourself!  You're part of a larger collective, a massive beech?  Oh, dear!  Whatever shall we do?  I like tough guys.  😘

Writing history now, are you?  Well, please try to get my good side.  Just exactly how long does it take to get to the future in your time machine?  Seriously.  I might have some time next week and I'd like to go talk to the future generations.  Now that I think about it, I like judges, too.  😘

If you like tough guys I hear the Blue Oyster is the place to go.

No I'll let the future generations do that history writing. Good idea go talk to children, those that are going to clean up the mess we have made.

Judges, again Blue Oyster.

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3 minutes ago, DA? said:

If you like tough guys I hear the Blue Oyster is the place to go.

No I'll let the future generations do that history writing. Good idea go talk to children, those that are going to clean up the mess we have made.

Judges, again Blue Oyster.

So, Blue Oyster is your place?  Will they let me in for free if I mention your name?  Is that where you keep the time machine stashed?  I'll bet there are historians and judges in the back in the secret room, aren't there?  

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14 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Sometimes I wonder:  What does it feel like to be a pebble in someone's shoe?  Does it give the pebble a sense of self-worth?  Does it make the pebble "feel" like it has a purpose in life?  Or is it like, I don't know, the pebble just feels good knowing it is making the person wearing the shoe feel uncomfortable, knowing they cannot take the pebble out of their shoe?

And then I think of how the pebble feels and, well, bless his little heart.

I'll go write a flash story about this little pebble. Its story touched me. Thanks for the idea, Dan! I also like the image of a fossil fuel sea (with a bottom of coal, no doubt), so thanks, DA?, too! I'm being absolutely serious. I take story ideas anywhere I can get them.

14 hours ago, Guillaume Albasini said:

Canadian Hardisty light oil fell from around $60 this summer to... $6 now.

Wow!

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18 minutes ago, Marina Schwarz said:

I'll go write a flash story about this little pebble. Its story touched me. 

"The Little Pebble with Big Feelings"

The heartwarming story about a little guy with grit, determination, and a heart of stone, who learns so much by getting stepped on by the big, bad, corporations, and triumphs nonetheless.

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Not my memes, I'm just sharing them ...

 

72eb2fbb7d77180f4ac9167a68ac81139a8f9969bc83cebab4880b2b606e12cd.jpg

0d01cda22eefb6b458ccae13683b342f2d90b4f1719483f51251c1d7839f2d57.jpg

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5 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

"The Little Pebble with Big Feelings"

The heartwarming story about a little guy with grit, determination, and a heart of stone, who learns so much by getting stepped on by the big, bad, corporations, and triumphs nonetheless.

This little pebble will make no difference, but there are plenty others out there working hard to make a difference and they will triumph in making the world a better place. I'm looking forward to the historic stories built around the collapse of the fossil fuel industries, although I feel bad for all those people that will get burnt financially by the disruption coming (well some I won't feel sorry for). Having "big feelings" isn't a bad thing when you want to see your child's world become a better place, try it.

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24 minutes ago, DA? said:

This little pebble will make no difference, but there are plenty others out there working hard to make a difference and they will triumph in making the world a better place. I'm looking forward to the historic stories built around the collapse of the fossil fuel industries, although I feel bad for all those people that will get burnt financially by the disruption coming (well some I won't feel sorry for). Having "big feelings" isn't a bad thing when you want to see your child's world become a better place, try it.

Since I happen to think that the oil & gas industry is not going to go away any time soon, and are rooting for it, we are unlikely to agree on much in discussions about oil & gas.

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On 11/29/2018 at 7:19 AM, Guillaume Albasini said:

Canadian Hardisty light oil fell from around $60 this summer to... $6 now.

How long can they sustain this price ?

 

image.png.75f25ff4a18ad081880c7f16dedf212d.png

History suggests that the price necessary for oil sands producers to shut in dilbit production is a WCS price around $20/B, FOB Hardisty, equivalent to $25/B, FOB USGC, using spare, incremental-cost pipeline capacity. Such a price can be easily matched by stranded Eastern Hemisphere sour crude supplies from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Russia and Iran. Once the IMO 2020 sulfur regulation kicks in, there will be upwards of two million barrels a day of Eastern Hemisphere sour crude looking for a home in the US. At that point Canada's protected position as US supplier will vanish. In the expected desperate situation, Eastern hemisphere crude can compete in the US , not just in the Gulf Coast, but also in the Midwest, utilizing Capline. Canada's future is grim.

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(edited)

On 11/30/2018 at 12:23 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

"The Little Pebble with Big Feelings"

The heartwarming story about a little guy with grit, determination, and a heart of stone, who learns so much by getting stepped on by the big, bad, corporations, and triumphs nonetheless.

How did the story go Mr. Kirkman? xD We help him get there to the throne and let him win by our choice already?^_^ Can't wait to know more...

Edited by specinho
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On 11/30/2018 at 11:18 PM, William Edwards said:

History suggests that the price necessary for oil sands producers to shut in dilbit production is a WCS price around $20/B, FOB Hardisty, equivalent to $25/B, FOB USGC, using spare, incremental-cost pipeline capacity. Such a price can be easily matched by stranded Eastern Hemisphere sour crude supplies from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Russia and Iran. Once the IMO 2020 sulfur regulation kicks in, there will be upwards of two million barrels a day of Eastern Hemisphere sour crude looking for a home in the US. At that point Canada's protected position as US supplier will vanish. In the expected desperate situation, Eastern hemisphere crude can compete in the US , not just in the Gulf Coast, but also in the Midwest, utilizing Capline. Canada's future is grim.

Selling at  slightly more than costs could also earn them billions. They probably have earned enough and it's time to contribute to the country and the society. Let the people enjoy natural resources for free (e.g. forested parks etc) or at cheap price because they belong to everyone in the country?? The more a nation (especially developing countries) gets from natural resources the sooner they learn how to corrupt until the country bankrupt with debts............. In order to prevent the foreseable scene... we might need to teach them how to corrupt mildly or properly. The first lesson could probably start from income from oil and gas and how to benefit most and not just a few or no?? :-D

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Alberta is a very interesting case of how power plays and political risks influence in the oil industry and how ideologies at the end of the day are not important when it comes to deal with money and power as per the issue unfolding in Alberta and of course having in consideration the fundamentals of lack of transportation in pipelines and stressing the desire of China to take as much cheap oil from Canada as it can now that also Lopez Obrador comes to Mexico and it will surely give priority to chinese companies in Mexico posing in important macro threat for the United States just when the new NAFTA was crafted. 

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(edited)

On 11/30/2018 at 10:18 AM, William Edwards said:

History suggests that the price necessary for oil sands producers to shut in dilbit production is a WCS price around $20/B, FOB Hardisty, equivalent to $25/B, FOB USGC, using spare, incremental-cost pipeline capacity. Such a price can be easily matched by stranded Eastern Hemisphere sour crude supplies from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Russia and Iran. Once the IMO 2020 sulfur regulation kicks in, there will be upwards of two million barrels a day of Eastern Hemisphere sour crude looking for a home in the US. At that point Canada's protected position as US supplier will vanish. In the expected desperate situation, Eastern hemisphere crude can compete in the US , not just in the Gulf Coast, but also in the Midwest, utilizing Capline. Canada's future is grim.

I keep telling you guys this, and you keep ignoring it, that Canada will refuse to collectively face the "grim future" that you paint.  The idea that Canadian crude from Alberta specifically is going to get "shut in" is a scenario that NO Canadian government can allow to happen.  That oil MUST be produced and MUST be converted into fuels via distillation, and if the USA market specifically and the Asian Market generally is not going to buy the stuff, then Canada - inevitably - will turn its domestic market into a closed market, place a prohibition onto the import of oil, and require all and sundry inside Canada to burn and use only Canadian oil  (and gas, of course). 

There are serious technical problems, of course, but Canada is a sophisticated country with a deep reservoir of well educated engineers who are capable of building the refinery capacity to take the oilsands material and upgrade that oil, and then both build additional refineries on-site to produce distillates, and to ship the upgraded material to other refineries in Sarnia, Montreal, and St, John, New Brunswick by railcar, to be used as exclusive feedstock in those plants. 

Now, does that imply that Canadians will pay more than the world price for their gasoline and diesel  (and heating fuels)?  Of course it does.  And so what?  Think of those extra sums as a form of tax, for the "privilege of being Canadian."  Historically, all kinds of stuff are justified in terms of that special "privilege," so don't be surprised if a closed-system of only internal heavy oils ends up.  Canadians themselves don't really suffer from that, as they have historically paid little - and continue to pay very little - to support their military.  For example, right now the Canadian Navy has zero combat-capable blue-water ships, and zero operational naval supply-support vessels  (the last one conked out in the Caribbean and had to be ingloriously towed back to Halifax). 

If you don't spend tons on the military, then relatively you can spend some coin on oil refining. 

What continues to hurt Canada is the profoundly stupid governance of the Province of Ontario.  There, an entire generation has operated under the thumb of an imperious and insolent Liberal Party, so oppressive that in the end it got slaughtered in the last election, going from roughly 126 seats to 5.  It is such a rout that it is no longer even an Official Party.  It converted Ontario from a manufacturing powerhouse into a penniless province, reliant on handouts from the Federal Equalization Payments  (from rich Provinces to poor).  Once the new provincial Premier, Mr. Ford, gets manufacturing re-started, the wealth will slowly   (very slowly) start to come back.  And key to that is peace with the USA over tariffs, and access to the US market.  But it will, albeit at the cost of a chronically devalued currency exchange rate. 

I say again:  Canada will not shut in its capacity.  It will convert their entire country to run on Alberta crude.  That is my prediction.

Edited by Jan van Eck
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