What will the future hold for nations dependent on high oil prices.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

17 minutes ago, NickW said:

When I said Gulf States I meant the Arabian Gulf. 

The South Isn't wet either

 

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

[ronwagn + 6,290]

10 hours ago, James Regan said:

I beg to differ the United States consumes more Oil and petroleum related products than any other country on the Planet, 19 Million Bbls per day. Your piece singled out countries which depend on oil from the tap as a source of revenue, but in fact its a play on words as there isn't one (big statement) Industry in the USA that doesn't in some form rely on fossil fuels. Some countries use oil as there main source of Income but the USA is addicted to Petroleum and its byproducts.

That is true, but we have many options for energy, as does the rest of the world. My favorite is natural gas, it can take over for oil if it ever needs to. Our entire fleet of ICE vehicles could be converted to natural gas use. Wind, solar, and other technologies will continue to advance as well. Our energy future is bright no matter what. 

[James Regan + 1,776]

49 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

That is true, but we have many options for energy, as does the rest of the world. My favorite is natural gas, it can take over for oil if it ever needs to. Our entire fleet of ICE vehicles could be converted to natural gas use. Wind, solar, and other technologies will continue to advance as well. Our energy future is bright no matter what. 

Energy is all around us we will always find a way to tether our ambient conditions and turn it into energy, what not so easy are the chemical properties only found in petroleum which allow us to make weird and wonderful polymers too many Polys to mention used in the manufacturing of medicines and cures of deadly diseases, any operation taking place saving lives is oil based right down to the gloves and masks keeping the doctor safe. Lipstick and make up that makes our lovely ladies prettier, the TV station your watching with a live football game being beamed in by Satelite all possible due to Petroleum based products, we won’t be carbon free for some time, EVs will just be a city folly and also totally reliant on Petroleum. We are carbon based so we need to just go with it, without carbon we wouldn’t be around using the stuff that we want to eradicate. Yes the future is bright and will get interesting but us and are kids will still be required to use fossil fuels. 👊🏻🙏🏻Respect 

[Auson + 123]

44 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Energy is all around us we will always find a way to tether our ambient conditions and turn it into energy, what not so easy are the chemical properties only found in petroleum which allow us to make weird and wonderful polymers too many Polys to mention used in the manufacturing of medicines and cures of deadly diseases, any operation taking place saving lives is oil based right down to the gloves and masks keeping the doctor safe. Lipstick and make up that makes our lovely ladies prettier, the TV station your watching with a live football game being beamed in by Satelite all possible due to Petroleum based products, we won’t be carbon free for some time, EVs will just be a city folly and also totally reliant on Petroleum. We are carbon based so we need to just go with it, without carbon we wouldn’t be around using the stuff that we want to eradicate. Yes the future is bright and will get interesting but us and are kids will still be required to use fossil fuels. 👊🏻🙏🏻Respect 

James,

Well said and some wise words there, I actually think the adoption of EVs will increase the worlds demand for oil. Electric motorbikes make more sense to me but hey ho. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 hour ago, James Regan said:

Energy is all around us we will always find a way to tether our ambient conditions and turn it into energy, what not so easy are the chemical properties only found in petroleum which allow us to make weird and wonderful polymers too many Polys to mention used in the manufacturing of medicines and cures of deadly diseases, any operation taking place saving lives is oil based right down to the gloves and masks keeping the doctor safe. Lipstick and make up that makes our lovely ladies prettier, the TV station your watching with a live football game being beamed in by Satelite all possible due to Petroleum based products, we won’t be carbon free for some time, EVs will just be a city folly and also totally reliant on Petroleum. We are carbon based so we need to just go with it, without carbon we wouldn’t be around using the stuff that we want to eradicate. Yes the future is bright and will get interesting but us and are kids will still be required to use fossil fuels. 👊🏻🙏🏻Respect 

I agree with you for the most part but many of the products you mention can also be made from natural gas.  

See https://www.texansfornaturalgas.com/25_things_you_didn_t_know_were_made_with_natural_gas

 

[DA? + 301]

11 hours ago, NickW said:

I recall reading it uses huge quantities of gas heating them greenhouses. I suppose the extra CO2 helps boast growth as well assuming other nutrients are added to aid the growth. 

Another great use of electricity when renewable energy is dam cheap.

[shadowkin + 584]

Theses 'nations' will dissolve into ethnic-religious civil wars with massive casualties due to warfare, starvation, and disease. Millions of 'refugees' will attempt to flee to more prosperous nations. Primarily US, Europe and to a lesser extent East Asia and South America. They will bring their lack of intelligence, industriousness, and medieval cultures with them and destroy from within any nation foolish enough to admit them.

You are seeing a preview of this in Syria. Now multiply that by a dozen of these failed states.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

15 hours ago, DA? said:

Another great use of electricity when renewable energy is dam cheap.

That is true. At least some greenhouse users add CO2 from their heating to boost growth. http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/english/crops/facts/00-077.htm

[ronwagn + 6,290]

5 hours ago, shadowkin said:

Theses 'nations' will dissolve into ethnic-religious civil wars with massive casualties due to warfare, starvation, and disease. Millions of 'refugees' will attempt to flee to more prosperous nations. Primarily US, Europe and to a lesser extent East Asia and South America. They will bring their lack of intelligence, industriousness, and medieval cultures with them and destroy from within any nation foolish enough to admit them.

You are seeing a preview of this in Syria. Now multiply that by a dozen of these failed states.

I hope it is not all that dire but I can appreciate your concerns! Hopefully things will be better for them and us. 

[James Regan + 1,776]

On 12/11/2018 at 10:02 PM, Auson said:

James,

Well said and some wise words there, I actually think the adoption of EVs will increase the worlds demand for oil. Electric motorbikes make more sense to me but hey ho. 

Auson your point regarding motorbikes is correct the evolution of E or Zero class bikes in championships has been developing for the past five years, the Isle of Man 🇮🇲 TT have an E class, the bikes are as quick in fact acelarate faster than the gasoline bikes but the problem is durability one lap is only possible, weight is the factor and the batteries are expensive to make and complicated to recycle or scrap, and of course require lots of resources (oil) to make. 2019 we will see the Zero class come to MotoGP, it will give more exposure to EVs but IMO they will never replace the combustion engine in some form we will always have to have a back up for the EV drive train. 

[DA? + 301]

1 minute ago, James Regan said:

Auson your point regarding motorbikes is correct the evolution of E or Zero class bikes in championships has been developing for the past five years, the Isle of Man 🇮🇲 TT have an E class, the bikes are as quick in fact acelarate faster than the gasoline bikes but the problem is durability one lap is only possible, weight is the factor and the batteries are expensive to make and complicated to recycle or scrap, and of course require lots of resources (oil) to make. 2019 we will see the Zero class come to MotoGP, it will give more exposure to EVs but IMO they will never replace the combustion engine in some form we will always have to have a back up for the EV drive train. 

Been as exbiker (it was no fun unless I was at the edge and with a son the bikes had to go) I do miss them. But I can't see ever going back to a road bike but off road hell yes, it would be electric. The electric bikes are getting better all the time. Weight and heat issues are the main stoppers but even for road bikes it's not many years off and this will be a forgotten issue. Batteries would probably last a shorter time than on a car but still longer than a ICE on present bikes. Recycling isn't an issue these days, after the second life as stationary storage the useful materials are not hard to remove. The resources to make them at present are dependant on fossil fuels but the world is going electric. As in many tech's I put the year of around 2025 and electric bikes will out do ICE's.

There was an article in Popularmechanics the other day talking about the 600cc class of bikes disappearing, a shame that was my preffered size. Smaller country roads and easy to pickup when you drop them, not that happened often honest.

[James Regan + 1,776]

23 hours ago, DA? said:

Been as exbiker (it was no fun unless I was at the edge and with a son the bikes had to go) I do miss them. But I can't see ever going back to a road bike but off road hell yes, it would be electric. The electric bikes are getting better all the time. Weight and heat issues are the main stoppers but even for road bikes it's not many years off and this will be a forgotten issue. Batteries would probably last a shorter time than on a car but still longer than a ICE on present bikes. Recycling isn't an issue these days, after the second life as stationary storage the useful materials are not hard to remove. The resources to make them at present are dependant on fossil fuels but the world is going electric. As in many tech's I put the year of around 2025 and electric bikes will out do ICE's.

There was an article in Popularmechanics the other day talking about the 600cc class of bikes disappearing, a shame that was my preffered size. Smaller country roads and easy to pickup when you drop them, not that happened often honest.

I’m still at 51 riding my 1000cc race bike on circuits (too many close calls on roads) I also have a young son so in controlled environments on track the risks are somewhat minimalist. It’s a completely different experience on an E bike but none the less two wheels. You may be correct about 2025 but I don’t think anyone will be to confident in getting in an E Plane ✈️. Baby steps I know but we did move from Horse to steam (steam didn’t last too long and was fossil fueled) Fossil fuels are just part of our life. Oil Platforms are now being powered by wind but the end game is Oil and I don’t see that changing for a long time.

[DA? + 301]

2 hours ago, James Regan said:

I’m still at 51 riding my 1000cc race bike on circuits (too many close calls on roads) I also have a young son so in controlled environments on track the risks are somewhat minimalist. It’s a completely different experience on an E bike but none the less two wheels. You may be correct about 2025 but I don’t think anyone will be to confident in getting in an E Plane ✈️. Baby steps I know but we did move from Horse to steam (steam didn’t last too long and was fossil fueled) Fossil fuels are just part of our life. Oil Platforms are now being powered by wind but the end game is Oil and I don’t see that changing for a long time.

Careful at our age the bones don't fix so easy. I don't think people are even to confident about planes today but they will quickly ignore whats going on around them as usual. Thing is with technology changeovers they don't take baby steps, once a new tech has matured to a critical degree it's a very rapid change. We are about there with renewables and very soon with EV's, once they cross that boundary and sales go up those sales drive down the cost of manufacturing/production and that just increases even more sales. Fossil fuels are part of the energy sector (tech) and have moved away from the old commodities type of industry.

[James Regan + 1,776]

A really interesting view on how the US is perceived on policing the world, pretty expensive police force. If it was actually a policing issue using an internal model it’s budg would have been cut years ago as any policing operation has and cost versus results threshold to maintain ie controlling bad guys and putting them in Jail. “Policing” what the comment actually refers to is controlling strategic oil reserves that the USA needs to keep its requirement for foreign oil, nothing more nothing less. Don’t be lured into a false sense of security because only now there is a vision that the US Regional oil plays will keep the US free from required foreign oil. 

As for welfare populations in the Middle East, I was brought up in the Middle East an expat Family in the oil business, in the 70s the UAE the welfare you may be referring to was funds injected into local social systems called Health and Education and infrastructure, take a look at Dubai and tell me it didn’t work?

“What does the US want” - agreed the US should be tired as they have wasted a lot of money and effort and worst still cost lives of Americans  in the middle to end up in this current situation where they have lost or quickly losing control of this strategic area. But let’s be clear as in the case of the Iraq war ( by the way I’m from the UK and as proud of that as you are of your country) the WMD we were looking for was OIL nothing more nothing less. 

[JunoTen + 118]

Hard to tell. Once oil demand peaks because of electric vehicles (in about two years from now), those countries will lose  a lot of influence, that's all we can say. Whether they go bankrupt and end up in war or not is, I believe, unpredictable. But it's likely.

[JunoTen + 118]

On 12/11/2018 at 5:11 PM, NickW said:

Thats a list pulled off the Guardian. 

Hydroponics has its place but can it really replace open air agriculture. Water efficient hydroponics would need to be in Greenhouses? Covering half the planet in glass or plastic??????

Hydroponics are getting better and better fast. What they need is cheap energy, which will be provided by solar, and strong lighting, which will be provided by LED.

Those two technologies have an impressive decreasing cost curve. In the 2020s open air agriculture will gradually collapse and be replaced by hydroponic towers. The towers wil also produce meat, eggs, and milk. This will have amazing economic effects because the costs of food will be divided by a factor of 10 or more, and as a side effect tremendous benefits for the environment, because it will lower the amounts of antibiotics in the water, and the amounts of nitrogen released to the sea. Companies that produce pesticides will also probably collapse, because they're not needed in the protected environement of a farm tower.

Also, in a farm tower, the water is recycled.

Edited December 15, 2018 by JunoTen