Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
Udara Hemachandra

is World Gas Prices down really just want update

Recommended Posts

i would like to know is world gas market or Shell Gas gone down? please explain need to know much 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Udara Hemachandra said:

guys web site also down any predictions about prices ?

Price predictions are nothing more than hunches or guesses, as prices for gas and oil are set by traders in the commodities.  Those fellows are operating a zero-sum game, where each is trying to take cash from the others and put it in his own pocket.  Then you have these traders working for large institutions (including hedge funds moving billions of dollars) who speculate against each other.  What it ends up as is a giant casino, and none of it is related to or based on actual production or consumption.  You will find pundits who will tell you, with a perfectly straight face, that so-and-so price moved because of a certain event somewhere, but it is all rubbish.  The reality is that these traders continue to out-hustle the other fellow, and that speculation causes price movements in the Exchange. 

So attempting to out-guess the traders is folly.  Broad trends are out there, but the time horizon is in years, not days. Right now, the weather predictions are for a mild winter in the North, so less gas consumed, so traders are apparently unloading positions.  But since nobody can predict what the Russians or the Koreans or the Iranians are about to do, the whole market is in constant state of uncertainty. At least, that is my personal view.  You are entirely free to substitute your own, probably equally likely to predict the future.  Cheers.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Jan van Eck said:

Price predictions are nothing more than hunches or guesses, as prices for gas and oil are set by traders in the commodities.  Those fellows are operating a zero-sum game, where each is trying to take cash from the others and put it in his own pocket.  Then you have these traders working for large institutions (including hedge funds moving billions of dollars) who speculate against each other.  What it ends up as is a giant casino, and none of it is related to or based on actual production or consumption.  You will find pundits who will tell you, with a perfectly straight face, that so-and-so price moved because of a certain event somewhere, but it is all rubbish.  The reality is that these traders continue to out-hustle the other fellow, and that speculation causes price movements in the Exchange. 

So attempting to out-guess the traders is folly.  Broad trends are out there, but the time horizon is in years, not days. Right now, the weather predictions are for a mild winter in the North, so less gas consumed, so traders are apparently unloading positions.  But since nobody can predict what the Russians or the Koreans or the Iranians are about to do, the whole market is in constant state of uncertainty. At least, that is my personal view.  You are entirely free to substitute your own, probably equally likely to predict the future.  Cheers.

so at the moment world gas prices are down right?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Udara Hemachandra said:

so at the moment world gas prices are down right?

Not really.  Gas could be at two dollars if the traders continue to sell off future contracts.  It is lower than where it was on the "spike," but the spike where it went to, what was the number, $4.50?, was again a result of traders feeding off each other.  It has found this current price point because there are a number of sellers who have unloaded their long positions and a number of short sellers who bought back in.  

Does gas traditionally rise during the winter months?   Yes.  Will it rise further from the current price as the winter continues, this specific year?  Nobody knows.  I certainly do not.  Would I speculate in the gas futures market?  Never.  

"IF" a major world supplier gets shut in, for political reasons, and their ability to sell into the world market stops, say if Europe boycotts all Russian gas, "THEN" you are going to see a price movement up.  Is that likely?  No, I don't think so.  Will you see movements away from Russia to US gas and gas from Qatar?  Yes, you will.   Is that going to make for a big price move?  Probably not. The US has lots of gas, and more is being found.  Although I think that gas prices in the USA will likely continue to drop over a longer period, past this Winter, it is not something I would put any of my own money on.  The "fundamentals" always get swamped by the traders. Traders are casino gamblers.  You cannot expect logic from traders.  Just my opinion.   Do not invest your money on my opinion, it is worthless.  Cheers.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmmm ... Whenever a large retailer of Natural Gas wants to increase the price to customers ,

that company needs some reference , excuse , reason ; and it should be an outside reason to

distract from their own failures , to be good humans that deliver something and send money to

the customers , too  .

 

What to do , to create a reason to increase prices ? Someone somewhere created a price spike ,

and because of that spike , the company increases the retail price for household customers ;

and not , because North Stream pipelines need money , because Putin-Russia for example is

currently not a sales argument in Western Europe , for example .

 

Now the short price spike has done it's purpose , and the price is leveling down again .

 

 

Maybe also a bookkeeper trick , to present some figures at a given time schedule .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0