U.S. Oil Output To Near Saudi+Russian Production By 2025

[Meredith Poor + 884]

Renewable energy prices have been declining at a reasonably predictable rate, generally no less than 20% per year, often higher than 25%. Solar panel prices listed by Chinese manufacturers are currently in the range of 20 cents per watt. Entering the following formula in a spreadsheet:

=(((((((20*0.8)*0.8)*0.8)*0.8)*0.8)*0.8)*0.8)

suggests that the cost-per-watt in 2025 will not exceed 4.2 cents per watt.

Just because solar PANEL prices drop to 4 cents per watt doesn't mean that a solar POWER PLANT, with all the installation, wiring, and operational costs will decline at the same rate.

A gallon of gasoline is equal to 32Kwh. A gallon of diesel is equivalent to 40Kwh.

A formula which assumes 5 hours of illumination per day times 7 years results in a watt of solar producing 12.8 Kwh over that time period. 32,000 / 12,783 = 2.5 watts is needed to produce the energy equivalent of a gallon of gasoline over 7 years. 2.5 watts x 20 cents per watt = 50 cents. 4.2 cents per watt * 2.5 cents per watt = 10.5 cents. A barrel (42 gallons) of pure gasoline will at that point cost some coefficient of 10.5 cents * 42 gallons, or n * $4.41. At the current cost of a barrel of oil this coefficient would exceed 10. In other words, 10.25 * 10.5 cents times 42 gallons = $45.20 per barrel.

The current coefficient for producing hydrocarbons from solar power and carbon dioxide is around 4, including the cost of extracting CO2 from the air. So the math in this case is 4 * x * 42 gallons = $45.50. Solving for x one gets 27 cents per watt to equal the current price of oil extracted from the ground.

There's no reason why the IEA prediction couldn't be true. However, it will be on terms radically different from what anyone might expect.

 

[Karl V + 33]

Hmmm ... Trying to decrypt that Thread Starter ...

 

1 Watt of Solar Cell :

5 hours × 333 days = 1500+150+15 ≈ 1665 Wh * 7 = 7000+4200+420+35 ≈ 11655 Wh ≈ 12 kWh .

 

1 Gallon of Gasoline contains 32000 Watt-hours , and to produce these 32 kWh , it would need 

32 ÷ 12 ≈ 2.5 Watt of Solar Cells .

 

Since Solar Cells cost around 20 ct a Watt currently , the production costs of 1 Gallon of Gasoline by Solar Power

would be 50 cents .

 

In 6 years in year 2025, a Watt of Solar Cell is assumed with 4.2 ct , and the production costs of 1 Gallon of Gasoline could be 10.5 cents by Solar Powered Devices .

One Barrel of Gasoline could then be produced as 42 gallons × 10.5 ct ≈ 42 / 10 ≈ 4.2 Dollars by Solar .

Currently one Barrel of WTI would be produced as Western Texas Intermediate at $45 × 50 ct ≈ 45 / 2 ≈ 22.5 Dollars by Solar .

Therefore the provocative statement ,  issued somewhere on this oilprice.com forum , that crude oil could sink to $20 a Barrel by outside competition by Solar Technology could come true in the next year(s) ; and sink even further , possibly creating a situation in the oil drilling and refining job sector , as the introduction of the steam machine did once around 250 years ago , leading to all possible political and social turmoils , like the French Revolution , Russian Revolution , Fall of the Berlin Wall , et cetera .

 

 

 

[James + 30]

I really want whatever your smoking, for reallllzzzz tho!