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Adrian Hernandez

How successful will the fresh OPEC cuts be?

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Bullish reasons for the cuts.

  1. Saudi Arabia cuts more than intended.
  2. Venezuela production declines
  3. Libya is a wildcard.

Bearish reasons

  1. Global economy is showing signs of slowing.
  2. China's economy will slow restraining its demand for oil.
  3. Surging oil production from the United States. 

Those are the major factors right now. What do you guys think?

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Yesterday (1/2/19) I thought the Saudi cuts were affecting crude as the price per bbl started to climb to $2.00 more on WTI, but by the end of the day, a slow decline occurred.  As Oilprice pointed out Total has opened the offshore fields in Nigeria and added 200,000 bbl.  If China will start to behave and their economy starts to ramp up the price of oil will climb.  A large portion of the U.S. production is used inside the U.S. so I'm not sure we have any major influence on oil prices since we import at least twice what we export and most exports are petroleum products.  It's all in what the refiners want and in the U.S.  we export a million bbls of heavy crude and import a million bbls of sweet crude, but the full import picture is about 7 million bbls a day.  All in all if OPEC and Russia pulls back again on production, we'll see prices rise.  

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