Tom Kirkman

The Oil Bulls Are Returning - To Correct Oil Prices Back Up To Where They *Should* Be

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Editorial article from Oil Price main news site.  If you don't have a subscription, it's free and easy.

Anyway, as you may already have heard from my endless comments here last year, I do not view either $40 oil or $80 oil as sustainable (talking about Brent here; WTI is a totally different animal).

My *hope* (as opposed to prediction) for 2019 is around $70 oil.  That's what I tend to view as a relative balance between oil producers and oil consumers.  In 2018 my *hope* was for $65 oil, and for 2019, my *hope* is for $70 oil.  I may be a bit too optimistic, but I am biased in that I am proudly pro - Oil & Gas.

So what the Oil Price editorial sees as "bullish" I tend to see more as an upward "correction" toward my perceived optimum balance of $70 or so.  Related to my Oil Price See Saw comments last Summer, when I suggested that oil prices would probably be bookended between $50 and $80 for the rest of 2018:


Hopefully the upward momentum of oil prices won't overshoot $70 too far this year, I really do get tired of talk of triple digit oil prices by pundits and wags.

Oh, and remember when I mentioned in November to *relax*, that oil prices should get sorted out by end of 2018 or early 2019?


Anyway, here's the current Editorial from Oil Price:

The Oil Bulls Are Returning

The first week of 2019 has brought back some of the bullish sentiment that market watchers had given up on after three consecutive (and quite painful) weeks of losses. The reason for the recent oil rally lies in Saudi Arabia making good on its OPEC/OPEC+ promise to cut production. Total OPEC production has witnessed its steepest month-on-month decline in the last two years, dropping by more than 0.5mbpd to 32.6mbpd. 

As more countries fulfill their production cut commitments, the market tension should ease somewhat, even though the bullish factors will be partially counteracted by growing US crude stockpiles. Dated Brent rose by almost 10 percent week-on-week to reach 57.5 USD per barrel on Friday afternoon, whilst WTI finished the week trading at 48-48.5 USD per barrel, gaining some 7 percent from last Friday’s 45.3 USD per barrel.

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P.S. just so y'all understand why I go off on the some of the wild ride threads here on politics, environment, climate change, etc. it's so you can better understand my rationale about oil prices, global oil trends, and my view of the global oil & gas industry.

The global oil & gas industry is driven by many factors, and very much include the hot button topics I just listed above; they are all intertwined.

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