Oil CEOs See Market Rebalancing as Outlook Blurred by China Risk

The oil market is gradually returning to balance as OPEC reins in output and the U.S. shale boom slows, according to executives gathered at Davos. Yet the risk of stalling growth in China continues to cloud the outlook.“The supply and demand looks balanced for 2019,” BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Bob Dudley said in an interview in the Swiss resort. “OPEC has started to cut production in the first quarter, but they cannot balance overnight.” Crude has got off to its best start to a year since 2001 on hopes that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will cut enough output to eliminate a glut. However, forecasts for slower economic growth -- particularly in China -- are threatening that rally, with demand concerns overshadowing tighter supply. “There’s still so much uncertainty about what’s going to happen with the world economy,” Occidental Petroleum Corp. CEO Vicki Hollub said in a Davos panel discussion. “The volatility I think is going to be worse over the next couple of months,” before Brent crude settles in a $60 to $70-a-barrel range, she said. Benchmark Brent has rallied 15 percent this year as the OPEC cuts kick in, but remains almost 30 percent below the four-year peak reached in October. Crude’s volatility has unnerved the investment community, which is “much more cautious now” than it was previously, according to Hollub. “Not as much money is going to be pouring into the Permian basin,” she said. “There’s going to be more discipline around how the Permian reacts to pricing.”
 

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The Middle East is sitting on top of one of the most valuable commodity on earth right now. Oil.  They have the market cornered...

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Something that OPEC not wants to hear...

Russian oil ouptut at around 11.39 MLN BPD between Jan 1 / Jan 22...slightly up from 11.38 MLN BPD from Jan1/Jan10 

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Capital markets activity for oil and gas producers dried up in December. And year-over-year capital raises are down too.

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"Commodity markets, when they're volatile, they make it hard for investors to invest. It's hard on consumers, and so you really need a price that encourages investment and draws in enough new investment, but is not so high that it weighs on the economy," he said. "We're probably not far from that kind of a price right now." - answered Chevron Chairman and CEO Michael Wirth on question where he'd like crude prices to be.

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6 hours ago, Pavel said:

The Middle East is sitting on top of one of the most valuable commodity on earth right now. Oil.  They have the market cornered...

You are only right if demand stays high. Eventually natural gas may replace some demand for oil, also recessions, electric vehicles, wind, solar etc. 

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