Are New Oil Technologies Oversold B.S.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

I have been told by old timers that all the oil has already been found, the latest technology is nothing new, we should do things as we always have, we should just flare off natural gas, and on and on. What is the truth in the long term? Is oil production going downhill from here? Will natural gas and renewables take over from oil. Would like everyone's opinions on the future of energy and related technologies. 

Here is a relevant article https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/New-Exploration-Tech-Finds-15-Billion-Barrels-Of-Oil-In-Alaska.html 

Added https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Chevron-Looks-To-Double-Permian-Production-By-2022.html

Added https://www.foxbusiness.com/business-leaders/bp-ceo-oil-gas-is-a-high-tech-industry

Edited January 31, 2019 by ronwagn
added reference

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

17 hours ago, ronwagn said:

I have been told by old timers that all the oil has already been found, the latest technology is nothing new, we should do things as we always have, we should just flare off natural gas, and on and on. What is the truth in the long term? Is oil production going downhill from here? Will natural gas and renewables take over from oil. Would like everyone's opinions on the future of energy and related technologies. 

Here is a relevant article https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/New-Exploration-Tech-Finds-15-Billion-Barrels-Of-Oil-In-Alaska.html 

When in 83 the drilling stopped I went to work for Petty-Ray Geophysical services a GeoSource (long ago bankrupted). We were the first crew to go from analog to digital and we went back and "re-shook" a lot of areas from Clovis,NM straight down to Pecos, Tx. This big swath had been deemed completed and with the digital they were able to see further and with more accuracy. That was damn near 37 years ago. As time has gone on, the improvements in tech is allowing us to map further and further underground and even in the water. Good article and for 20 years plus they knew of the North Slope oil. You don't guess and plop a rig without a good percentage of chance of hitting. Too costly.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

8 hours ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

When in 83 the drilling stopped I went to work for Petty-Ray Geophysical services a GeoSource (long ago bankrupted). We were the first crew to go from analog to digital and we went back and "re-shook" a lot of areas from Clovis,NM straight down to Pecos, Tx. This big swath had been deemed completed and with the digital they were able to see further and with more accuracy. That was damn near 37 years ago. As time has gone on, the improvements in tech is allowing us to map further and further underground and even in the water. Good article and for 20 years plus they knew of the North Slope oil. You don't guess and plop a rig without a good percentage of chance of hitting. Too costly.

What do you think of this Ruffneck? https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Chevron-Looks-To-Double-Permian-Production-By-2022.html

I think our new President and Administration have a lot to do with opening up the North Slope in Alaska. Rick Perry as Secretary of Energy and other changes. 

Edited January 31, 2019 by ronwagn

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

2 hours ago, ronwagn said:

What do you think of this Ruffneck? https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Chevron-Looks-To-Double-Permian-Production-By-2022.html

I think our new President and Administration have a lot to do with opening up the North Slope in Alaska. Rick Perry as Secretary of Energy and other changes. 

I think the next 2 years is going to be real interesting. Trump plans on reducing states inputs as infrastructure is concerned. The U.S.A will dominate the oil industry. I believe we will have total output in 5 years 25mpd. More than Russia and Saudi combined. Refined products also will be unequalled. From what I am seeing on the ground here, there is no let up in drilling. Couple weeks back we dropped 25 rigs but have since recovered them. I have yet to figure out how the Big Banks are still loaning tho….on a promise?? That's for Tom Kirkman to figure out. I just know the bottom hasn't stopped yet and rig shift to the west from Carlsbad down west of Balmorhea, Tx. and east towards Imperial, Tx. Lots of square miles and evidently they are going to gorge themselves on this feast, as long as banks keep handing out checks.

North-slope and Anwar have a lot of oil. Will see with Rick Perry as Sec. of Energy how the off limits Alaskan oil becomes. My guess and is just a hunch that it'll be opened up and I would hope to see some semblance of order and put the land back as was when arrival. Between the 2 is about 40bbl and could rise from that. Alaskan terrain makes it hard locate oil. Satellite tech is fairly decent but you still need to a seismic crew to get a good photo underneath. Trump did run on energy independence in his campaign a lot with a lot of other things. Can one man steer/sway an banking and oil industry to find and pump and get to the consumer the finished products? I dunno, the trend surely is pointed that way even if there is loss.  

[ronwagn + 6,290]

16 hours ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

I think the next 2 years is going to be real interesting. Trump plans on reducing states inputs as infrastructure is concerned. The U.S.A will dominate the oil industry. I believe we will have total output in 5 years 25mpd. More than Russia and Saudi combined. Refined products also will be unequalled. From what I am seeing on the ground here, there is no let up in drilling. Couple weeks back we dropped 25 rigs but have since recovered them. I have yet to figure out how the Big Banks are still loaning tho….on a promise?? That's for Tom Kirkman to figure out. I just know the bottom hasn't stopped yet and rig shift to the west from Carlsbad down west of Balmorhea, Tx. and east towards Imperial, Tx. Lots of square miles and evidently they are going to gorge themselves on this feast, as long as banks keep handing out checks.

North-slope and Anwar have a lot of oil. Will see with Rick Perry as Sec. of Energy how the off limits Alaskan oil becomes. My guess and is just a hunch that it'll be opened up and I would hope to see some semblance of order and put the land back as was when arrival. Between the 2 is about 40bbl and could rise from that. Alaskan terrain makes it hard locate oil. Satellite tech is fairly decent but you still need to a seismic crew to get a good photo underneath. Trump did run on energy independence in his campaign a lot with a lot of other things. Can one man steer/sway an banking and oil industry to find and pump and get to the consumer the finished products? I dunno, the trend surely is pointed that way even if there is loss.  

Thanks for your input Ruffneck, I greatly value the people who really know the industry from the ground up! I lived seven years in Bakersfield California and picked up some knowledge there but was not in the industry. It is great to see how much man can accomplish when he is able to tap the land. My projections are based more on educated guesses than anything else. I think there is a lot more oil and natural gas in California and elsewhere especially offshore. Whether it is allowed to be tapped is another thing. That is not factoring in methane hydrates along the coasts around the world. 

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

3 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Thanks for your input Ruffneck, I greatly value the people who really know the industry from the ground up! I lived seven years in Bakersfield California and picked up some knowledge there but was not in the industry. It is great to see how much man can accomplish when he is able to tap the land. My projections are based more on educated guesses than anything else. I think there is a lot more oil and natural gas in California and elsewhere especially offshore. Whether it is allowed to be tapped is another thing. That is not factoring in methane hydrates along the coasts around the world. 

I remember when an area was slowing in production, brine lines were injecting into the formation then it picked back up production then CO2 was injected along with brine. Some fields with the shallow wells around Pecos to Grandfalls area are dead. Those wells were drilled back in the 30's and early 40's and the 4000 foot wells are depleted but now the same area with fracking to 18000+ is robust. The easy wells drilled way back before we were born are mostly played out but some still produce. So the technology in surveying and seismograph has altered the outcome of a lot of West Texas. It truly is mind boggling.

 

[DanilKa + 443]

hard to make predictions, especially about the future...

Is all oil is found? probably not. Still plenty to explore in Arctic, deep water, overlooked plays like low resistivity turbidites, possibly counterflow (dynamic) crude accumulations. Won't be cheap.

Is shale is bubble? most certainly. Would it go away? nope; here to stay albeit perhaps at lower scale and at higher prices.

Are renewables going to become dominant form of energy? Maybe, but not soon. One need to consider limits of exponential growth - resources. And with higher penetration into energy mix intermittency become bigger and bigger issue. If fossil fuel is forced out, there may not be enough energy to make low ERoEI (by some estimates - under unity) solar panels and wind generators. Without large scale energy storage 100% backup is required and it has to be factored in price.

Would EV makes ICE redundant? not so fast. Significant progress in battery technology is required. But it is happening and we shall see growth in EV market share. But I won't be surprised if oil consumption growth in parallel, as it always did so far. Remember, there are billions folks living in energy poverty if their income improves, first thing they'll need is energy.

Would we see battery-powered ocean freight and airliners? Doubt it. And that's where a lot of HC consumed (60% in transportation). There may be migration from diesel to LNG but perhaps slow one.

If we can get cheap reliable and safe nuclear (thorium or uranium) - it would be way to go. Direct steam generation also permits lowering coast of tar sands development and that's where bulk of remaining discovered oil reserves are (Canada and Venezuela). 

Fusion? always 30 years away. And not as clean as you may think it is - reaction vessel becomes radioactive.

Weatherman being asked "does our forecasts always come true?" - "Always. Its just a matter of time..."