Tom Kirkman

Reuters Poll: Brent Expected to Average $67 in 2019

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The latest Reuters poll apparently tries to put a negative spin on positive news.  Weird.

My personal view is U.S. Shale Oil production should start cutting back in H1 this year, and avoid an increase in Shale Oil overproduction. 

The $50 WTI bugbear appears to be the safety relief valve for 2019.  If WTI stays close to or below $50, I expect new drilling to be put on hold this year.  And combined with the hefty decline rates of Shale Oil wells, excessive overproduction (like in the 2014 / 2015 crash) may be avoided.

$70 oil  [Brent]  this year still looks likely to me.  

Just my opinion; as always, you are free to disagree.

Oil faces uphill struggle as shale, growth risks challenge OPEC cuts: Reuters poll

(Reuters) - Oil prices will struggle to gain much upward traction this year, as concern about the global economy and growth in U.S. crude supply could offset a boost from OPEC production cuts and sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, a Reuters poll showed.

"The 'low for longer' view is deferred but not repealed," Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke said.

The survey of 39 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude oil futures to average $67.32 a barrel in 2019, down from the $69.13 projected in the previous monthly poll. ...

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