Can Latin America replace Venezuelan exports?

[Daniel Baruch + 2]

Where will US Gulf Coast refiners find heavy sour barrels to make up for Venezuelan supply that have been a staple of their diet? That question shows the primary concern hasn’t been over the quantity lost as much as the quality lost.  Attention has turned to Latin America because Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Mexico also produce sour crude. 

Price differentials have been turned on their head. Mars traded above LLS - a rare occurrence. And Middle East benchmarks Oman and Brent (both medium-density, sour) were more expensive than ICE Brent (light sweet) futures - another unusual event.

[Illurion + 894]

On 2/14/2019 at 3:29 PM, Daniel Baruch said:

Where will US Gulf Coast refiners find heavy sour barrels to make up for Venezuelan supply that have been a staple of their diet? That question shows the primary concern hasn’t been over the quantity lost as much as the quality lost.  Attention has turned to Latin America because Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Mexico also produce sour crude. 

Price differentials have been turned on their head. Mars traded above LLS - a rare occurrence. And Middle East benchmarks Oman and Brent (both medium-density, sour) were more expensive than ICE Brent (light sweet) futures - another unusual event.

A very good question..

 

I think most people hope that the answer is  "WE WILL NOT HAVE TO REPLACE VENEZUELAN EXPORTS."

 

Hopefully,  the Maduro socialist thugs will be overthrown,  and the new Venezuelan Government will "guaranty" that the assets of foreign investors will NEVER be nationalized again,  and that those assets already nationalized will be returned to their owners,  AND INVESTORS WILL RETURN TO VENEZUELA,  AND THE OIL INFRASTRUCTURE WILL BE REPAIRED AND EXPANDED,  AND THE EXPORTS WILL RESUME...

 

In other words,  everyone is holding their breath and waiting...

 

It is interesting that the nations you mentioned have not worked harder to take advantage of the "vacuum" caused by the Venezuelan situation.

 

You would think they would have jumped at the opportunity to increase market share,  but they have mostly just sat on their hands and done nothing.