ronwagn + 6,290 February 20, 2019 (edited) It looks like natural gas is at its lowest price ever. (Inflation adjusted) What does this mean for the future of natural gas use? There are many undeveloped finds all over the world. Related article https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Cheaper-Natural-Gas-Is-Coming-To-Europe.html Edited February 20, 2019 by ronwagn 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Old-Ruffneck + 1,177 er February 20, 2019 13 hours ago, ronwagn said: It looks like natural gas is at its lowest price ever. (Inflation adjusted) What does this mean for the future of natural gas use? There are many undeveloped finds all over the world. Related article https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Cheaper-Natural-Gas-Is-Coming-To-Europe.html Yes Ron, NG is at about it's lowest. In December some in the Permian were literally paying to take it. Too much pipeline constraints for the amount produced. In the article the write also in last paragraph explained next few years with Europe consuming more and more as they convert from coal and nukes, the demand will outstrip the supply. That will drive worldwide prices back up. LNG is not cheap!!! For USA to compete in the European market is a loss. Would have to be subsidized in some respect because Russia also has LNG. And much closer to Europe than US is. Factor in the east coast of US also, many places still haven't any pipelines to get Natural Gas to them. I do see in the future (2yrs)prices will slowly start climbing. More Coal fired power plants will be converted and demand alone in US will continue to rise. It's still all about pipelines though, need more or flaring will increase. Keep in mind NG is great to heat a house or boil water for steam generators, but not so good for auto's and Big Rigs. Not enough btu power in comparison with current gasoline or diesel. If it is a great product for auto's in general, they would have converted long ago. I still believe if one wants to invest in NG, now is the time if you have extra money. The market will increase, just slowly. 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickW + 2,714 NW February 20, 2019 5 hours ago, Old-Ruffneck said: Yes Ron, NG is at about it's lowest. In December some in the Permian were literally paying to take it. Too much pipeline constraints for the amount produced. In the article the write also in last paragraph explained next few years with Europe consuming more and more as they convert from coal and nukes, the demand will outstrip the supply. That will drive worldwide prices back up. LNG is not cheap!!! For USA to compete in the European market is a loss. Would have to be subsidized in some respect because Russia also has LNG. And much closer to Europe than US is. Factor in the east coast of US also, many places still haven't any pipelines to get Natural Gas to them. I do see in the future (2yrs)prices will slowly start climbing. More Coal fired power plants will be converted and demand alone in US will continue to rise. It's still all about pipelines though, need more or flaring will increase. Keep in mind NG is great to heat a house or boil water for steam generators, but not so good for auto's and Big Rigs. Not enough btu power in comparison with current gasoline or diesel. If it is a great product for auto's in general, they would have converted long ago. I still believe if one wants to invest in NG, now is the time if you have extra money. The market will increase, just slowly. This study reckons its now fairly close costs between Diesel and CNG. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/54df8befe4b0419b74c936c2/t/55f706f8e4b0c1c31ccc861d/1442252536965/ampCNG+White+Paper+on+12L+Operating+Costs+per+Mile.pdf CNG has a much better environmental profile, particularly in terms of local pollution. I'm with Ron on this one. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ronwagn + 6,290 February 20, 2019 26 minutes ago, NickW said: This study reckons its now fairly close costs between Diesel and CNG. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/54df8befe4b0419b74c936c2/t/55f706f8e4b0c1c31ccc861d/1442252536965/ampCNG+White+Paper+on+12L+Operating+Costs+per+Mile.pdf CNG has a much better environmental profile, particularly in terms of local pollution. I'm with Ron on this one. Thank you very much for the study NIck! 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ronwagn + 6,290 February 20, 2019 6 hours ago, Old-Ruffneck said: Yes Ron, NG is at about it's lowest. In December some in the Permian were literally paying to take it. Too much pipeline constraints for the amount produced. In the article the write also in last paragraph explained next few years with Europe consuming more and more as they convert from coal and nukes, the demand will outstrip the supply. That will drive worldwide prices back up. LNG is not cheap!!! For USA to compete in the European market is a loss. Would have to be subsidized in some respect because Russia also has LNG. And much closer to Europe than US is. Factor in the east coast of US also, many places still haven't any pipelines to get Natural Gas to them. I do see in the future (2yrs)prices will slowly start climbing. More Coal fired power plants will be converted and demand alone in US will continue to rise. It's still all about pipelines though, need more or flaring will increase. Keep in mind NG is great to heat a house or boil water for steam generators, but not so good for auto's and Big Rigs. Not enough btu power in comparison with current gasoline or diesel. If it is a great product for auto's in general, they would have converted long ago. I still believe if one wants to invest in NG, now is the time if you have extra money. The market will increase, just slowly. I realize that it is very tough to change the mind of diesel fans and that diesel is a great fuel. Part of my army job was driving a deuce and a half for a mobile medical unit. I was a medic. Diesel is great. I have seen diesel prices go up and down for years. I know it is a tough job to get trucking companies to switch fuels. I do think that it should be done long term though. Do you think that diesel prices are headed up over the next decade? I think that CNG prices will stay low because it is piped in the USA unless converted back to a gas from LNG as in Europe. LNG is of course, more expensive than CNG unless it is reprocessed from LNG. LNG trucks are similar to CNG trucks but use more expensive LNG. CNG can be reprocessed to LNG and repiped to various locations at a cost. LNG trucks, therefore, make more sense for Europeans where the gas is usually delivered as LNG. They are fond of biogas which is produced locally so that could be used as compressed biogas or blended into natural gas pipelines. Localized CNG trucking is the easiest market because trucks can be refueled at night in most cases. Buses and garbage trucks are two of the most popular markets. Natural gas cars and pickup trucks run just fine. They will eventually become popular and IMHO are a much better choice than electric vehicles for long commutes and for cost/benefit ratio. They will certainly help the air quality in polluted cities around the world. Natural gas and ethanol are competitors of gasoline and diesel. They will help keep prices of those fuels down. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Old-Ruffneck + 1,177 er February 21, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, ronwagn said: I realize that it is very tough to change the mind of diesel fans and that diesel is a great fuel. Part of my army job was driving a deuce and a half for a mobile medical unit. I was a medic. Diesel is great. I have seen diesel prices go up and down for years. I know it is a tough job to get trucking companies to switch fuels. I do think that it should be done long term though. Do you think that diesel prices are headed up over the next decade? I think that CNG prices will stay low because it is piped in the USA unless converted back to a gas from LNG as in Europe. LNG is of course, more expensive than CNG unless it is reprocessed from LNG. LNG trucks are similar to CNG trucks but use more expensive LNG. CNG can be reprocessed to LNG and repiped to various locations at a cost. LNG trucks, therefore, make more sense for Europeans where the gas is usually delivered as LNG. They are fond of biogas which is produced locally so that could be used as compressed biogas or blended into natural gas pipelines. Localized CNG trucking is the easiest market because trucks can be refueled at night in most cases. Buses and garbage trucks are two of the most popular markets. Natural gas cars and pickup trucks run just fine. They will eventually become popular and IMHO are a much better choice than electric vehicles for long commutes and for cost/benefit ratio. They will certainly help the air quality in polluted cities around the world. Natural gas and ethanol are competitors of gasoline and diesel. They will help keep prices of those fuels down. The entire U.S. infrastructure is designed for gasoline and diesel. To switch to CNG even is just about a no go because for one problem in particular, that mass public would blow themselves up. I believe in Oregon there is no self serve gas, or maybe they changed the laws as I haven't been there in number of years. So to repipe CNG to the existing stations just not going to happen, IMHO. As I said before, if it was that great a fuel source, we'd have seen enmass the stations having that. In Midwest I haven't seen not even one. I consume a lot of diesel and my trucks actually work, not pavement pounders with big ass wheels. Gasoline vehicles don't have the power I need and the economics I would pay extra for. Nothing personal about how I feel, just the economics and cost. Don't be going AOC on me Ron LOL http://pointsandfigures.com/2011/04/27/natural-gas-vs-diesel/ Edited February 21, 2019 by Old-Ruffneck add url 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Janet Alderton + 124 JA February 21, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, Old-Ruffneck said: The entire U.S. infrastructure is designed for gasoline and diesel. To switch to CNG even is just about a no go because for one problem in particular, that mass public would blow themselves up. I believe in Oregon there is no self serve gas, or maybe they changed the laws as I haven't been there in number of years. So to repipe CNG to the existing stations just not going to happen, IMHO. As I said before, if it was that great a fuel source, we'd have seen enmass the stations having that. In Midwest I haven't seen not even one. I consume a lot of diesel and my trucks actually work, not pavement pounders with big ass wheels. Gasoline vehicles don't have the power I need and the economics I would pay extra for. Nothing personal about how I feel, just the economics and cost. Don't be going AOC on me Ron LOL Each region will decide on its preferred fuel. Cummins began offering low particulate emissions diesel engines some time ago. Let the markets roar. Edited February 21, 2019 by Janet Alderton diesel engines 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Janet Alderton + 124 JA February 21, 2019 https://www.cummins.com/news/releases/2018/09/19/cummins-unveils-future-diesel-low-nox-and-low-co2-emissions-technology 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Old-Ruffneck + 1,177 er February 21, 2019 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Janet Alderton said: https://www.cummins.com/news/releases/2018/09/19/cummins-unveils-future-diesel-low-nox-and-low-co2-emissions-technology My new 18 9Litre guess didn't make the cut for my bus. More added European add-ons may make it in the USA but not always. Edited February 21, 2019 by Old-Ruffneck 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Janet Alderton + 124 JA February 21, 2019 1 minute ago, Old-Ruffneck said: My new 18 9Litre guess didn't make the cut for my bus. More added European may make in the USA but not always. Please translate. Thank-you, Janet 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Old-Ruffneck + 1,177 er February 21, 2019 1 minute ago, Janet Alderton said: Please translate. Thank-you, Janet I have a new Cummins 9litre, it doesn't have any of the European model in your link. Makes one wonder...…. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ronwagn + 6,290 February 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Old-Ruffneck said: The entire U.S. infrastructure is designed for gasoline and diesel. To switch to CNG even is just about a no go because for one problem in particular, that mass public would blow themselves up. I believe in Oregon there is no self serve gas, or maybe they changed the laws as I haven't been there in number of years. So to repipe CNG to the existing stations just not going to happen, IMHO. As I said before, if it was that great a fuel source, we'd have seen enmass the stations having that. In Midwest I haven't seen not even one. I consume a lot of diesel and my trucks actually work, not pavement pounders with big ass wheels. Gasoline vehicles don't have the power I need and the economics I would pay extra for. Nothing personal about how I feel, just the economics and cost. Don't be going AOC on me Ron LOL http://pointsandfigures.com/2011/04/27/natural-gas-vs-diesel/ Your article is too old. Read the comments on the article also. I recommend http://www.ngvglobal.com/ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Janet Alderton + 124 JA February 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said: I have a new Cummins 9litre, it doesn't have any of the European model in your link. Makes one wonder...…. Got it! I think my link is to up-coming models. Do you like your Cummins 9-liter? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ronwagn + 6,290 February 21, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, Old-Ruffneck said: The entire U.S. infrastructure is designed for gasoline and diesel. To switch to CNG even is just about a no go because for one problem in particular, that mass public would blow themselves up. I believe in Oregon there is no self serve gas, or maybe they changed the laws as I haven't been there in number of years. So to repipe CNG to the existing stations just not going to happen, IMHO. As I said before, if it was that great a fuel source, we'd have seen enmass the stations having that. In Midwest I haven't seen not even one. I consume a lot of diesel and my trucks actually work, not pavement pounders with big ass wheels. Gasoline vehicles don't have the power I need and the economics I would pay extra for. Nothing personal about how I feel, just the economics and cost. Don't be going AOC on me Ron LOL http://pointsandfigures.com/2011/04/27/natural-gas-vs-diesel/ 5 We have an adequate CNG infrastructure already, it is ready for rapid growth. http://www.cngprices.com/station_map.php Give a minute for the prices to load. http://www.ngvglobal.com/blog/eurocement-plans-1000-kamaz-natural-gas-trucks-0215 Edited February 21, 2019 by ronwagn added reference Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Old-Ruffneck + 1,177 er February 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, Janet Alderton said: Got it! I think my link is to up-coming models. Do you like your Cummins 9-liter? When bus is loaded to 38k to 40k and pulling 30 foot trailer 15k, it does the job. Cruise at 62mph I get about 7.5mpg. Take it up to 73mph and I get 5.9mpg, not allowing if there's a lot of wind. See photo above few and it's a giant wind block. But I didn't purchase for the mileage. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Janet Alderton + 124 JA February 21, 2019 1 hour ago, ronwagn said: Your article is too old. Read the comments on the article also. I recommend http://www.ngvglobal.com/ One of the members of the Citizens Committee for Pipeline Safety has been driving a vehicle that uses compressed natural gas for years. He is very happy with his car. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DanilKa + 443 February 21, 2019 looks like someone is spreading fake news... https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdD.htm Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ronwagn + 6,290 February 22, 2019 13 hours ago, DanilKa said: looks like someone is spreading fake news... https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdD.htm Who would that be? Don't forget to figure in inflation. https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-value-of-a-dollar-today-3306105 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DanilKa + 443 February 22, 2019 3 hours ago, ronwagn said: Who would that be? Don't forget to figure in inflation. https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-value-of-a-dollar-today-3306105 you may want to use recent gas prices which spiked Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ronwagn + 6,290 February 22, 2019 40 minutes ago, DanilKa said: you may want to use recent gas prices which spiked Still about as low as ever and way below historical norms figuring in inflation. That spike was very short. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
John Foote + 1,135 JF February 25, 2019 Per b.t.u., natural gas is the way to go, if you have pipeline access. The expense of going to LNG changes the equation. For many years natural gas typically tracked with oil. Then fracking hit. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickW + 2,714 NW February 26, 2019 19 hours ago, mthebold said: Assume costs are close. CNG may win because its price is less volatile than diesel, and commercial operators like that . Emissions also matter. IIRC, San Antonio began purchasing CNG buses because they have pollution problems downtown, pollution deters talented people, and a lack of talent hurts their bottom line. For cities, there's more to the problem than bus life cycle costs. On the other hand, electric buses are ramping up quickly and will beat other options within a few years. When that happens, we may see more NG consumption to produce electricity, but it's likely that will be diluted by other sources of electricity. We shall see. On the emissions front Gas wins hand down. If you build purpose built gas Buses and Trucks you can stick a decent catalytic converter on it and that will sort out most of the NOX issues. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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