Another Net Oil Exporter Bites the Dust

[Jeffrey Brown + 207]

BP puts Mexico's 2017 total petroleum liquids consumption at 1.9 million bpd.  Assuming no change in liquids consumption, Mexico has probably approximately averaged zero net oil exports for November, 2018 to January, 2019 (when total petroleum liquids production was 1.9 million bpd):

http://www.pemex.com/en/investors/publications/Indicadores%20Petroleros%20Archivos/eprohidro_ing.pdf

Given an ongoing decline in oil production in a net oil exporting country, unless they cut their domestic liquids consumption at the same rate as, or at a faster rate than, the rate of decline in production, it's a mathematical certainty that the rate of decline in net oil exports will exceed the rate of decline in production and that the rate of decline in net oil exports will accelerate with time. 

For example, Mexico's total petroleum liquids production in 2004 was 3.8 million bpd, versus total liquids consumption of 2.0 million bpd, resulting in 2004 (total petroleum liquids) net exports of 1.8 million bpd (BP data).

Production in 2017 was down to 2.2 million bpd, versus consumption of 1.9 million, resulting in 2017 net exports of 0.3 million bpd.

Mexico’s 2004 to 2017 rate of decline in production was 4.2%/year, versus a net export rate of decline of 17%/year.

Our global supply of net oil exports consists of countries that have shown, or will show, the same kind of production/net export profile as Mexico--unless they cut their domestic liquids consumption at the same rate as, or at a faster rate than, the rate of decline in production.  

 

[Mike Shellman + 548]

Jeffrey Brown, we knew this was coming but its still stunning news. Alarming, to say the least. Thank you for sharing this.

Mexico, the mighty oil giant from the south...done as an exporter. Wow. 

[Illurion + 894]

it is not just the OIL INDUSTRY in mexico..

the whole country is collapsing in on itself...

 

 

[Rodent + 1,424]

And Obrador is about to get even more control over Mexico's oil industry.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-oil-regulator/mexico-oil-regulator-commissioner-to-step-down-letter-idUSKCN1QF2H3

[TXPower + 643]

4 hours ago, Rodent said:

And Obrador is about to get even more control over Mexico's oil industry.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-oil-regulator/mexico-oil-regulator-commissioner-to-step-down-letter-idUSKCN1QF2H3

Worked well in Venezuela.  What could go wrong?