Go Green or Die

"Managers of traditional energy businesses need to spend in areas that attract new customers, such as batteries, auto charging and renewable electricity, said Andrew Smart, the managing director of global energy industry at the consulting group. Otherwise, they risk the “dirty” part of their companies strangling growth opportunities, he said."

I suppose there may be an Amazonian tribe or two who haven't heard it yet but who knows, there may be three. That guy might want to repeat his prediction. Here.

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Oil & Gas are not going away any time soon, no matter how much the Oil & Gas haters jump up and down and yell and threaten and name call those who disagree with them.

"... A recent survey revealed that the energy sector faces greater reputational challenges than any other.

The full extent was brought home to me when I was in Davos last month.

One senior financial figure I spoke to confidently predicted the end of our industry in about five years!

Another was slightly less pessimistic – but he speculated that most vehicles on the road would be electric in five to 10 years, when today they account for less than half a percent!

In other words, important stakeholders believe that the entire world will soon run on anything… but oil!

These views are not based on logic and facts, and are formed mostly in response to pressure and hype.

But they are sincerely held.

And our stakeholders are clearly tuning out. 

They are not hearing us when we say that passenger vehicles are only 20% of the world’s oil demand.

Or that the remaining 80% is used by sectors like planes, ships, trucks, petrochemicals, and lubes for which there is no alternative yet and where demand for oil is expected to increase substantially.

They do not recognize a world where alternatives such as solar and wind, although growing rapidly (including in Saudi Arabia), still account for just 2% of primary energy demand today.

The intermittent nature of renewables does not seem to be a concern either, or the ongoing need for proven and reliable electricity generation capacity as back-up, much of it fueled by gas.

There is very little thought given to the massive global energy infrastructure that would need to be transformed in every corner of the world, costing trillions of dollars, bearing in mindunder-developed countries that cannot afford expensive technologies.

And people gloss over the reality that today, in many countries, more electric vehicles means more coal-powered vehicles. ..."

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Lets wait for FF demand to drop before we quit investing. Some of us need to live.

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These guys in the stock exchanges, rule the world but live in a world of rumour and trends not linked to reality.

Oil shale has always been known about, never made any money and never will.  So the world will not get energy from oil shale.  Vast amounts of money are being pored into renewables and as the guy says it make up 2% of our energy requirements.

Electric cars get their electricity from oil, gas or coal!

There is no investment in oil or gas and that has been highlighted by Saudi and the EIA for years. 

There is only one way this is going and that is  a major energy shortage and a major increase in the oil price.

 

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5 minutes ago, NWMan said:

These guys in the stock exchanges, rule the world but live in a world of rumour and trends not linked to reality.

Oil shale has always been known about, never made any money and never will.  So the world will not get energy from oil shale.  Vast amounts of money are being pored into renewables and as the guy says it make up 2% of our energy requirements.

Electric cars get their electricity from oil, gas or coal!

There is no investment in oil or gas and that has been highlighted by Saudi and the EIA for years. 

There is only one way this is going and that is  a major energy shortage and a major increase in the oil price.

 

One thing to appreciate is that renewables are very front end loaded when it comes to investment. Thereafter, particularly in the case if solar and wind the fuels are virtually free. 

Due to to the large role out of renewables it gives this impression that you keep having to put huge investment in to get 2% out. Not true - if we stopped new investment today (except maintenance) wind and solar would still have considerable outputs in 20-30 years time. 

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Energy storage, energy storage, energy storage. Figure this out and then renewables can take over the world. Hopefully not literally.

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Energy storage is good but I have worked on project and we could not figure it out.  Super conductors - transport hydrothermal energy around the world - not worked out yet.  Nuclear Fusion - free energy - not worked out yet.  So what are we going to do!

Wind turbine farm are being built everywhere.  They have huge maintenance issues - they wont last 15 years before they have to be replaced and they wont produce 98% more energy.

What are going to do.  It is all a joke.  All the "tree huggers" go on about is that we must leave a good planet for our children.  Our children might also want prosperity  which we have based on a energy supply.

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5 hours ago, NickW said:

Due to to the large role out of renewables it gives this impression that you keep having to put huge investment in to get 2% out. Not true - if we stopped new investment today (except maintenance) wind and solar would still have considerable outputs in 20-30 years time. 

If we stopped new investment today, wind and solar would still have 2% or less outputs today declining at a percentage of energy requirement growth into the future.

People are on TV talking about 100% electric cars in 10 years, peak oil in 10 years, the world transforming to reenable energy in 10 years.  Really.  A realistic target would be 60 to 70 years from the development of a realistic alternative energy source.

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5 hours ago, NWMan said:

If we stopped new investment today, wind and solar would still have 2% or less outputs today declining at a percentage of energy requirement growth into the future.

People are on TV talking about 100% electric cars in 10 years, peak oil in 10 years, the world transforming to reenable energy in 10 years.  Really.  A realistic target would be 60 to 70 years from the development of a realistic alternative energy source.

Since 1950 Oil demand has averaged 1.3 mbpd. Its not a stretch to see electric cars equal the replacement of 1.3 mbpd within 10 years causing peak oil. Replacing the other 100 mbpd? Thats a different conversation.

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22 hours ago, NWMan said:

Energy storage is good but I have worked on project and we could not figure it out.  Super conductors - transport hydrothermal energy around the world - not worked out yet.  Nuclear Fusion - free energy - not worked out yet.  So what are we going to do!

Wind turbine farm are being built everywhere.  They have huge maintenance issues - they wont last 15 years before they have to be replaced and they wont produce 98% more energy.

What are going to do.  It is all a joke.  All the "tree huggers" go on about is that we must leave a good planet for our children.  Our children might also want prosperity  which we have based on a energy supply.

Meanwhile in the real World........ wind farms are typically productive for 25 years before turbines need major refurbishment. 1990's smaller turbines are frequently taken down and replaced by much larger models on the same site. The smaller turbines are refurbished and redeployed to other sites (industrial estates etc) 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/142966/new-research-blows-away-claims-that/

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22 hours ago, NWMan said:

Energy storage is good but I have worked on project and we could not figure it out.  Super conductors - transport hydrothermal energy around the world - not worked out yet.  Nuclear Fusion - free energy - not worked out yet.  So what are we going to do!

Wind turbine farm are being built everywhere.  They have huge maintenance issues - they wont last 15 years before they have to be replaced and they wont produce 98% more energy.

What are going to do.  It is all a joke.  All the "tree huggers" go on about is that we must leave a good planet for our children.  Our children might also want prosperity  which we have based on a energy supply.

The chart below should give you some perspective on the growth of wind. Not that wind will be the sole provider by any means. Historically most wind turbine sizes currently installed are small - represented by the models on the left hand side. Moving forward new installations are typically of those on the right hand side. 

Take Offshore in Europe. 15 years ago we started putting in 2-3 MW turbines close inshore. Now we are installing >8MW models (with >10MW on the way) over a much wider range of sea bed. Floating wind turbines are also being commercialised. 

Onshore in 1995 500KW was on the large side. Now turbines are typically 3- 3.6 MW

Wind_turbine_size_increase_1980-2011.png

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From the western World some can still see the "go green" trend as a kind of hype... but in some other parts of the world it is really a question of survival. The 50 World most polluted cities are all located in India, China, Pakistan and Bangladesh and 41% of the world population is living in these four countries. The unhealthy air quality is a real incentive to switch away from the fossil fuels as quickly as possible.

https://www.airvisual.com/world-most-polluted-cities?continent=&country=&state=&page=1&perPage=50&cities=

image.png.a5f974d4b8f8534fd3a9e126c8748905.png

A view of Gurugram city's skyline enveloped in heavy smog and heavy air pollution. Gurugram is the World's most polluted city.

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On ‎3‎/‎5‎/‎2019 at 9:56 AM, NickW said:

The chart below should give you some perspective on the growth of wind

This is a chart of the growth in the size of wind turbines.  With this growth we still only produce 2%. I note your comments that turbines typically last 25 years. 

I would love it if renewables was the answer to our energy needs but they are not.  Politicians who say that we will have all green cars in 10 years are delusional and short-termist.  They just want votes. 

We need Nuclear Fusion or super conductors to work or we need to invest in developing oil and gas reserves or go short of energy.

 

 

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6 hours ago, NWMan said:

This is a chart of the growth in the size of wind turbines.  With this growth we still only produce 2%. I note your comments that turbines typically last 25 years. 

I would love it if renewables was the answer to our energy needs but they are not.  Politicians who say that we will have all green cars in 10 years are delusional and short-termist.  They just want votes. 

We need Nuclear Fusion or super conductors to work or we need to invest in developing oil and gas reserves or go short of energy.

 

 

It demonstrates the scale factor that has turned wind from a niche area to one which in the UK's case is now the 3rd biggest supplier of electricity after gas and nuclear. In due course it will overtake nuclear. Similar pitcure across Europe and now we are seeing more offshore development in East Asia and the USA. 

I don't buy into any of these claims either that renewables will predominant in 10 or 20 years but they are progressively eating into the total energy pie which itself is expanding. 

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If 73% of French and 51% of Belgium Electricity comes from Nuke, the obvious path of least resistance is laid out. 

EIA  has some interesting info on all  Renewable  Energy.   The chart here was 6.3 % of US electricity generation by wind. Sounds too good to be true.   https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.php?page=wind_electricity_generation 

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22 hours ago, NickW said:

I don't buy into any of these claims either that renewables will predominant in 10 or 20 years but they are progressively eating into the total energy pie which itself is expanding.

I work in wind energy and I agree it will make a dent and why should countries spend their surplus money on bombs and bullets when they can build renewable energy sources.  The problem is, we need oil but it is so out of favour no one is investing.  

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On 3/5/2019 at 9:38 AM, Guillaume Albasini said:

From the western World some can still see the "go green" trend as a kind of hype... but in some other parts of the world it is really a question of survival. The 50 World most polluted cities are all located in India, China, Pakistan and Bangladesh and 41% of the world population is living in these four countries. The unhealthy air quality is a real incentive to switch away from the fossil fuels as quickly as possible.

https://www.airvisual.com/world-most-polluted-cities?continent=&country=&state=&page=1&perPage=50&cities=

image.png.a5f974d4b8f8534fd3a9e126c8748905.png

A view of Gurugram city's skyline enveloped in heavy smog and heavy air pollution. Gurugram is the World's most polluted city.

If you dropped climate change from the conversation pollution alone costs enough in lives, misery and treasury to warrent a search for cleaner energy alternatives.

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11 minutes ago, NWMan said:

I work in wind energy and I agree it will make a dent and why should countries spend their surplus money on bombs and bullets when they can build renewable energy sources.  The problem is, we need oil but it is so out of favour no one is investing.  

Eh? The investment being pumped into oil and gas is enormous.

I'd say its coal investment that has really declined.

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"The problem is that the oil industry has delayed and/or canceled many mid- and large-scale projects since the oil price collapse started in 2014. Given "lower-for-longer" oil prices, more producers turned to short-cycle projects, and over $1 trillion in investments in new supply has been lost since.

This is a major problem: over the next five years alone, we will need enough investments to add 20-25 million b/d to the global supply chain. Unfortunately for 2018, IEA sees just a 6% uptick in oil investments, this coming on the heels of 25% reductions in 2015 and 2016. We are way lower that pre-2014 levels, and after rising to close January, prices are now back to about where they were to start the year."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2018/03/08/the-continuous-need-for-new-oil-investments/#2c1fcaf31efb

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On 3/3/2019 at 11:56 PM, Marina Schwarz said:

"Managers of traditional energy businesses need to spend in areas that attract new customers, such as batteries, auto charging and renewable electricity, said Andrew Smart, the managing director of global energy industry at the consulting group. Otherwise, they risk the “dirty” part of their companies strangling growth opportunities, he said."

I suppose there may be an Amazonian tribe or two who haven't heard it yet but who knows, there may be three. That guy might want to repeat his prediction. Here.

Wishful thinking seems to produce more wishful thinking in the unrealistic minds of Greendom. 

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On 3/7/2019 at 8:22 AM, Boat said:

If you dropped climate change from the conversation pollution alone costs enough in lives, misery and treasury to warrent a search for cleaner energy alternatives.

No search needed, we have clean natural gas as a base load and renewables for the rest. Just use natural gas and not coal. Tell China, India, and Europe to hurry up. We are doing the best at replacing coal. 

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On 3/6/2019 at 2:46 AM, NWMan said:

This is a chart of the growth in the size of wind turbines.  With this growth we still only produce 2%. I note your comments that turbines typically last 25 years. 

I would love it if renewables was the answer to our energy needs but they are not.  Politicians who say that we will have all green cars in 10 years are delusional and short-termist.  They just want votes. 

We need Nuclear Fusion or super conductors to work or we need to invest in developing oil and gas reserves or go short of energy.

 

 

We don't need nuclear. It is way too expensive for free countries whose populace does not want it. We only need to use natural gas as the base load and renewables for the rest. That is the logical way to do it. 

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On 3/4/2019 at 12:27 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

Oil & Gas are not going away any time soon, no matter how much the Oil & Gas haters jump up and down and yell and threaten and name call those who disagree with them.

"... A recent survey revealed that the energy sector faces greater reputational challenges than any other.

The full extent was brought home to me when I was in Davos last month.

One senior financial figure I spoke to confidently predicted the end of our industry in about five years!

Another was slightly less pessimistic – but he speculated that most vehicles on the road would be electric in five to 10 years, when today they account for less than half a percent!

In other words, important stakeholders believe that the entire world will soon run on anything… but oil!

These views are not based on logic and facts, and are formed mostly in response to pressure and hype.

But they are sincerely held.

And our stakeholders are clearly tuning out. 

They are not hearing us when we say that passenger vehicles are only 20% of the world’s oil demand.

Or that the remaining 80% is used by sectors like planes, ships, trucks, petrochemicals, and lubes for which there is no alternative yet and where demand for oil is expected to increase substantially.

They do not recognize a world where alternatives such as solar and wind, although growing rapidly (including in Saudi Arabia), still account for just 2% of primary energy demand today.

The intermittent nature of renewables does not seem to be a concern either, or the ongoing need for proven and reliable electricity generation capacity as back-up, much of it fueled by gas.

There is very little thought given to the massive global energy infrastructure that would need to be transformed in every corner of the world, costing trillions of dollars, bearing in mindunder-developed countries that cannot afford expensive technologies.

And people gloss over the reality that today, in many countries, more electric vehicles means more coal-powered vehicles. ..."

Most people today are not rational, or logical. They are emotionally driven by those who wish to manipulate them. 90% of the media, most of the politicians, 90% of the professors, most teachers, are all pushing the globalist and global warming agendas. The elites, the wealthiest, the government sector are all telling them how they should live and how they should think. 

Fear is the greatest inducement to hypnotic messages and it is also the most used by all of the above. Our only hope is in the rational and logical people who are left. That population is being decimated by illegal aliens the world over. 

One World Government AKA Globalism https://docs.google.com/document/d/1k8kNhtZJLuN66TpDuo67WBV1U2JhhZIvAefxeMNK0ls/edit

Mind Control and Propaganda Techniques https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cBjsei8lp-zDw12zU7uQ7x8EvswUUAPs6r1mUU8oG6w/edit 

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On 3/4/2019 at 3:02 AM, NWMan said:

These guys in the stock exchanges, rule the world but live in a world of rumour and trends not linked to reality.

Oil shale has always been known about, never made any money and never will.  So the world will not get energy from oil shale.  Vast amounts of money are being pored into renewables and as the guy says it make up 2% of our energy requirements.

Electric cars get their electricity from oil, gas or coal!

There is no investment in oil or gas and that has been highlighted by Saudi and the EIA for years. 

There is only one way this is going and that is  a major energy shortage and a major increase in the oil price.

 

There will be no energy shortage, there will only be a lot of it left in the ground because of people who put too much faith in renewables. Then they will correct their own mistakes after paying much higher prices for energy. Part of Australia is learning that the hard way. 

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