Is the market undersupplied (Venezuela, Iran, OPEC) or oversupplied (China)?

Oil prices have rebounded since late December on signs that OPEC production cuts are working. Could it be traders are overlooking evidence pointing the other way? While stronger fundamentals are coming predominantly from the US, how can folks say the global supply-demand balance has tightened by looking exclusively at US inventory data? Rising Chinese stocks since late 2018 may tell a more bearish global story. 

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(edited)

I think China is a definite wild card in the deck.  The traders price oil based on how much they can move it in any direction and make money on that move without getting trapped.  KSA and OPEC are trying their best to make the traders wrong if they are short.  In the meantime, shale production continues to astonish and that may be what tips the balance to another downswing.

Edited by wrs

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