WTI now at $56.7 Headed for $70

There has been speculation amongst most traders that crude is about to crash, however, spending some time on the charts shows otherwise. The first stop on the way up will be in the low $60s.

Sorry, haven't been posting for a long time. But most times when I posted it led to strong negative posts, by trades with different views.

 

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1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

There has been speculation amongst most traders that crude is about to crash, however, spending some time on the charts shows otherwise. The first stop on the way up will be in the low $60s.

Sorry, haven't been posting for a long time. But most times when I posted it led to strong negative posts, by trades with different views.

 

I see. 

 

and what do you think might be the reason?

What will drive the rally?

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My reasons are charts only. But of course, I am familiar with the fundamentals. There are 3 basic fundamentals that will drive up the prices, and more, but i will just state the big ones. 1] Trade deal with China will happen. 2] OPEC trying hard to reduce supply. 3] Stock market will go up, and increase demand.

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2 thumbs up 😁

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(edited)

Some people here say charts are smoke and mirrors, chartist say fundamentals are late news. They are both right, fundamentals drive prices, but if you really understand charts, (and I do agree most lack in this field),  charts can tell you before these events actually happen, that they are about to happen. The problem with the analysts is they realized there are fundamentals, but they fail to realize which way those fundamentals will drive prices. So last year all analysts and investors knew about the Iran embargos, but they failed to realize those embargos would drive prices down by $30.

Edited by Top Oil Trader
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36 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Some people here say charts are smoke and mirrors, chartist say fundamentals are late news. They are both right, fundamentals drive prices, but if you really understand charts, (and I do agree most lack in this field),  charts can tell you before these events actually happen, that they are about to happen. The problem with the analysts is they realized there are fundamentals, but they fail to realize which way those fundamentals will drive prices. So last year all analysts and investors knew about the Iran embargos, but they failed to realize those embargos would drive prices down by $30.

Your right I don't think many expected the rapid Oil price decline in December me included ( ouch )

What are your charts telling you about the Gold price over the next few months ?

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Gold is something that takes years to move, not something I even look at.

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Gold cant go up now, for the same reason oil cant go down now. Oil and gold don't have the same characteristics as the stock market, and the stock market has different characteristics than forex. Most investors trade them the same way, and obvious way to failure.

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10 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

My reasons are charts only. But of course, I am familiar with the fundamentals. There are 3 basic fundamentals that will drive up the prices, and more, but i will just state the big ones. 1] Trade deal with China will happen. 2] OPEC trying hard to reduce supply. 3] Stock market will go up, and increase demand.

Well yes. I think the 1st factor you mention is the mkst potent one when it comes to driving prices (up or down). 

Prices went up yesterday as OPEC reassured supply cuts (here is your 2nd point ).

 

You and I differ only in the fact that I think there is not going to be a deal with China. 

 

But if there is....oil at $70..by all means!

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Oil price these days are dominsnted by paper oil . Money market 

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I believe oil can still make a trip to $52 before making it to the $70 because the shale is still up and USD/CAD has a lot of room to go up. Trump wants to strengthen his dollar before the trade deal itself. What are your thoughts on this ?

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aaskash you are not the only one, 99.9% of traders thought so this week and last week, maybe by now they are waking up

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The reason why its impossible for most to ever make money trading crude. 

First, you need to understand, there are people with lots of money and lots of brain power who consistently get it wrong over and over again. So the question you need to ask, "do you feel lucky!", do you think you can outsmart those people?

So are those smart people.

The paid analysts, with Masters in whatever from the biggest universities, get it wrong time and time again. 

The biggest funds, with the smartest NASA rocket scientists, with 20 Ph.D. degress in mathematics, get it wrong most of the time.

The big oil producers who are trying to decide whether to "drill or not to drill" get it wrong over and over again.l

So why is it that in the stock market its kind of easy, to figure out the direction, but in oil, for most, it's next to impossible, even with 20 Ph.D. degrees in mathematics.

I won't answer these questions here, but you as a trader need to ask yourself these questions and come up with the answers. If you can't maybe its best not to trade oil.

 

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I can tell you this, I spoke to an employee one of the biggest producers in the us, texas, oklahoma. They said already a month ago, they are not drilling any new wells. I was surprised when i heard that, I thought they would know better than me. So they must have gotten this fact the oil was going down from 55 and that it wasnt worth investing in new wells. So im assuming its not just that co, but many more that stopped investing. It comes to show you, that even people who produce this stuff, and sell it, and are amongst 1000s of oil experts, even they cant figure out when oil goes up or down. I suspect when oil hits 70, they will trim some experts who gave them the bad advice, and start drilling at the top of the range.

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(edited)

Oil companies make more money when they quit drilling.  Why drill when prices are low and simply add fuel to the fire burning under the low prices?  Most companies have drilled a lot of wells and have decent sustained production, enough that they can let it ride a while and see which way the wind is blowing.  The whole price drop this fall was based on a lot of misinformation concerning the Iran sanctions.  Trump pulled a fast one on the Saudis and they didn't like that.  He will now pay the piper and shale isn't going to help him.  He has hurt shale too with his little bait and switch trick.  What Trump did to the domestic oil industry was to stab it in the back.  He isn't going to like where oil goes from here.  To mimic Buzz Lightyear, "To 70 and Beyond!"

wtirebound.png

Edited by wrs

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You are completely wrong. Oil drillers will drill as long as the price supports it. its only when they feel prices may go down so that  they either break even or lose, that they stop drilling.

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Anyways like i  said, 52 is next, and 45 is even possible, the Family of Saud need to move fast to prevent a disaster. 

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So @Top Oil Trader,  we are currently at &56.08, Your prediction is that it will drop further to $52, before we go up?  I want to set up my orders for tomorrow Friday the 31st.

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no im not saying we go up if we hit 52. only that 51 or so is a  target, if the sauds dont do something it can drop further. Never, not once did i say i would be a buyer.

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Depending on how popular This site gets, oil could get very choppy indeed. 

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It looks like WTI is headed the other way, $54/barrel. But, talk it up for the commodity traders anyway. Amaranth lost $6 billion in one day on a hedge fund bet. Poof! There goes a billion kilowatt dam. High hopes. 

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The current oil price and fundamentals will mean nothing if we look at what POTUS is doing with his meddling in the Middle East. Iran is being pushed into a corner where they may well strike oil facilities and block the SOH. 

Kushner in Israel licking Bibis butt and DT signing autographs of a map of the Golan Heights shown as being Israelense, this will really assist Iran to work with Hezbolla and make peace! On the contrary I would hastily guess.

Trump needs to stop his threats and make a solid move be it good (preferably) or bad . All his current world meddling in other countries business is without “president”.

If you bump enough pressure eventually the pop of valve will go (if your lucky) if not the system will explode.

Irans goal of high oil price may well come from Trumps measures to keep it low.

One wrong move from anyone of the multiple proxies will send the price of oil sky rocketing.

Fundamentals I don’t believe should be the discussion but Geopolitics.

Respectfully 🙏🏻

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May have already started after US a coalition jets bombed Iranian Oil interests in Syria.......

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(edited)

For whatever reason, the traders don't believe the oil infrastructure of the countries with significant export capacity will be affected.  This bombing of oil on it's way to Syria, illegally according to Trump, could result in some unintended consequences. Enforcing an embargo is an act of war, traders don't care though, they just want volatility and they have created it. 

USO filled a big gap today but it has one more around $10.50 which would shave off another 5% from the current oil price if it fills.  When that gap fills the rebound should be significant and prolonged.  There are several overhead gaps that will fill and take oil over $80, just a matter of time.

Edited by wrs

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