Perhaps a New Model is Required?

In recent weeks I have seen several cases where the EIA has reported 'surprise' draws an builds on the oil supply.

Generally, if there are repeated 'surprises', it is an indication that the model which is being used is no longer valid.

Perhaps it is time for a new model?

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(edited)

it looks like your thread opened in TRIPLICATE....

send a message to moderator @Rodent and maybe she can remove one.....

Edited by Illurion
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31 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

In recent weeks I have seen several cases where the EIA has reported 'surprise' draws an builds on the oil supply.

Generally, if there are repeated 'surprises', it is an indication that the model which is being used is no longer valid.

Perhaps it is time for a new model?

I forget which thread it was,  but this was discussed a few weeks ago......

If memory serves,  someone said there were a number of models,  and it was the Russian one that was usually correct......

But i may be mistaken....  We talk about so much here.........

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1 hour ago, Douglas Buckland said:

In recent weeks I have seen several cases where the EIA has reported 'surprise' draws an builds on the oil supply.

Generally, if there are repeated 'surprises', it is an indication that the model which is being used is no longer valid.

Perhaps it is time for a new model?

There are no "Surprises" on a week to week basis. There is no magic in numbers on a daily basis, add up them for a week and get a raw number. It's bait for those who really don't understand how the industry as a whole runs. Less tankers coming in would tell me we might have a draw down. Is it a "SURPRISE"? No not really but I guess whatever to try to shock the price market up..….By the way, this is not a new, been going on for years. 

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6 hours ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

There are no "Surprises" on a week to week basis. There is no magic in numbers on a daily basis, add up them for a week and get a raw number. It's bait for those who really don't understand how the industry as a whole runs. Less tankers coming in would tell me we might have a draw down. Is it a "SURPRISE"? No not really but I guess whatever to try to shock the price market up..….By the way, this is not a new, been going on for years. 

Spot On!

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8 minutes ago, JJCar said:

About 1/2 of Gulf coast refineries use heavy oil.

No more Venezuela oil.

Canadian government has forced almost 400000 bbls day to prop up prices.

Saudi's have stopped shipping to US under guise of "they don't need it" . . . .  payback.  

I believe most of this will work it's way out in the coming months.

I would say that under normal circumstances, a free market would indeed work itself out. Left unattended (manipulated), that is.  

Unfortunately, between OPEC, Russia (to a lesser extent), and paper and scalping  traders, superfluous lending, and Twitter, the market is at their mercy and will be unable to right itself. 

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11 hours ago, Illurion said:

I forget which thread it was,  but this was discussed a few weeks ago......

If memory serves,  someone said there were a number of models,  and it was the Russian one that was usually correct......

But i may be mistaken....  We talk about so much here.........

The Russian model was the one that was closest in predicting global temperature rise.

 

it was also the model that showed the least amount of increase.

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(edited)

8 hours ago, Oil_Engineer said:

The Russian model was the one that was closest in predicting global temperature rise.

 

it was also the model that showed the least amount of increase.

Yes.......  You are right........... 

I am getting old....  I knew it was the Russian Model on something........  Just couldn't remember what....... 9_9

 

ps:   don't tell the Dems in Congress,  they will start investigating Trump for COLLUSION with the Russian Model......  ( and they will demand HER NAME. ) :$

Edited by Illurion
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35 minutes ago, Illurion said:

Yes.......  You are right........... 

I am getting old....  I knew it was the Russian Model on something........  Just couldn't remember what....... 9_9

 

ps:   don't tell the Dems in Congress,  they will start investigating Trump for COLLUSION with the Russian Model......  ( and they will demand HER NAME. ) :$

The Russians have amazing mathematicians, and they are probably not unduly influenced by political motives.....

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