....

(edited)

..

Edited by JJCar
typo
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This means less oil headed to Cushing via Midland.  Why would you think it's all going to be exported?  It's headed directly to refineries instead of indirectly via Cushing.  Not so good for Cushing but very good for producers in the Permian who have been shafted by the Mid-Cushing discount.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

On 3/20/2019 at 9:23 AM, wrs said:

 

Edited by JJCar
Typo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, JJCar said:

2.37 MILLION BARRELS/DAY PERMIAN OIL HEADING TO THE GULF MEXICO FOR EXPORT IN NEXT YEAR.

Is OPEC going to cut another 2.37 million barrels a day ?

Do you really think that WTI at 60 $ with some local discount will allow Permin to increase output by more than 2 milion barrels per day? Check EIA STEO for example.

  • Great Response! 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Choking?  LOL!  PADD 3 just dropped by 8mmbbl this week.  It's lower now than a year ago at this time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, wrs said:

This means less oil headed to Cushing via Midland.... very good for producers in the Permian who have been shafted by the Mid-Cushing discount.

Makes sense.  Are we seeing hedging here still to soften the blow?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

On 3/20/2019 at 1:56 PM, wrs said:

 

 

Edited by JJCar
typo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 3/20/2019 at 6:26 AM, JJCar said:

Additional 2.37 MILLION BARRELS/DAY PERMIAN OIL HEADING TO THE GULF MEXICO FOR EXPORT IN NEXT YEAR VIA 3 NEW PIPELINES..

Is OPEC going to cut another 2.37 million barrels a day at their December meeting ?

Please cut some more.  Thank you Khalid al-Falih.  THE U.S. OIL INDUSTRY WELCOMES YOUR CUTS.

2.37 mbpd additional production would be quite a ramp up in drilling and completion infrastructure along with a lot of other moving parts like shIpping. Besides world demand is maybe a million shy of that. Seems like a bridge to far.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

On 3/24/2019 at 3:12 AM, Boat said:

 

Edited by JJCar
typo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Those 9000 DUCT,s were mainly drilled over the last 5 years. That total is still growing. Takeaway capacity is just one hurdle. A high price frees up that oil in a world you say has to much supply. 

You could say OPEC has cut production and kept prices from collasping. Will they add to their cuts and give up market share on an added 2.37?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

Saudi's cut production.

Since all the cuts, sanctions, outages  etc what have they done ?  Nothing ! ! ! 

INVENTORIES HAVE GONE UP . . . . . 

because supply is increaing.  When Permian pipelines completed exports could go up over 2 million bbls/day . . . . .  . . . 

other shale basins aren't sitting still.  More US oil going go to exports  . . . 

OPEC thinks they will sell more oil to China after US trade deal finalized.  BUT DON'T FORGET THAT A BIG PART OF THE TRADE SETTLEMENT IS CHINA SIGNING LONG TERM CONTRACTS TO BUY SUBSTANTIAL QUANTITIES OF US OIL.  

Saudi's and OPEC will fight to maintain Asian oil market share  . .   but that will come at a PRICE  ..  ..  ..  the PRICE of a barrel of oil going down.

Oil prices strong now.  But this will pass . My estimate starts Q4.

 

Edited by JJCar
typo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

On 3/20/2019 at 1:53 PM, Tomasz said:

 

 

 

Edited by JJCar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, JJCar said:

THE TRADE SETTLEMENT IS CHINA SIGNING LONG TERM CONTRACTS TO BUY SUBSTANTIAL QUANTITIES OF US OIL. 

USA is now a dictator/monarchy in your delusions...  Not how the USA operates. Unenforceable anyways. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

On 3/25/2019 at 3:15 AM, Wastral said:

 

Edited by JJCar
typo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

On 3/25/2019 at 8:28 AM, JJCar said:

 

Edited by JJCar
typo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The belief of building pipelines is going to crank up production is just plain non sense.  Sure production may increase as pipeline capacity comes online, but now that the shale patch is seeing the accountants and financiers takeover the C suite, this little thing called positive cash flow and profit are going to hold back this massive 2.3 mm bpd pipeline capacity.  Lets not even mention the 2 mm bpd increase last year that will only become a 1 mm bpd increase by Dec. 2019 as decline rates ravage the production profile.  Sure there will be more production and exports, but not to the limit the author is suggesting.  As an extra bonus, listen to what Schlumberger's Paal Kibsgaard said on March 25 regarding shale well productivity dynamics.  I suspect Schlumberger knows a thing or two about well performance.  I sell your 2.37 mm capacity equals production all the way down to 1.2 mm.  Please bring some facts as opposed to shale patch corporate presentations that are long on promise and short on delivery.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 3/25/2019 at 11:40 AM, JJCar said:


 

3 hours ago, Cobra67 said:

The belief of building pipelines is going to crank up production is just plain non sense.  Sure production may increase as pipeline capacity comes online, but now that the shale patch is seeing the accountants and financiers takeover the C suite, this little thing called positive cash flow and profit are going to hold back this massive 2.3 mm bpd pipeline capacity.  Lets not even mention the 2 mm bpd increase last year that will only become a 1 mm bpd increase by Dec. 2019 as decline rates ravage the production profile.  Sure there will be more production and exports, but not to the limit the author is suggesting.  As an extra bonus, listen to what Schlumberger's Paal Kibsgaard said on March 25 regarding shale well productivity dynamics.  I suspect Schlumberger knows a thing or two about well performance.  I sell your 2.37 mm capacity equals production all the way down to 1.2 mm.  Please bring some facts as opposed to shale patch corporate presentations that are long on promise and short on delivery.

  • Natural Gas | Oil
  • 25 Mar 2019 | 22:08 UTC
  • Houston

Texas needs another 10,000 miles of gas, oil pipelines by 2050: study

Highlights

Texas' 3 big producing regions predicted to see peak production in 2030 timeframe

Infrastructure needs to be concentrated in Permian Basin

Houston — Texas will need to add more than 10,000 miles of new, currently unplanned, pipeline infrastructure projects in the next 30-plus years to achieve its full potential for growth of oil and gas production, a new study finds.

The study, by IHS Markit, predicts that gas production from three major Texas producing regions - the Permian Basin, the Eagle Ford Shale and the Barnett -- will peak in the 2030 timeframe at just under 35 Bcf/d and begin to gradually decline to around 30 Bcf/d by 2150.

However, this projected growth is contingent on the construction of sufficient pipeline infrastructure, including projects that are planned or currently under construction, as well as future projects not yet on the books.

Without the construction of future incremental pipeline infrastructure the study's authors estimate Texas' production of natural gas will be 24% lower than in the infrastructure buildout scenario, while crude production would be 9% lower, and natural gas liquids production would be 8% lower than projected.

In comparing historic production with its five-year production forecast, Platts Analytics found that in the last decade total Texas gas production grew by more than 1 Bcf/d from 18.6 Bcf/d in 2010 to 19.7 Bcf/d last year. Production over the next five years is expected to continue ramping up to 24 Bcf/d in 2024, according to Platts Analytics data.

The study projects that by 2050, in addition to pipeline projects planned or under construction, about 20 new projects with total mileage of about 10,950 miles, will have to be built to accommodate the expected hydrocarbon production growth over that time period. Of these, about 47% would be oil projects, while 29% would carry gas and 24% NGLs.

Todd Staples, president of the Texas Oil and Gas Association, said much of the new infrastructure construction will need to take place in the Permian Basin, driven by the expected growth of crude oil production, as well as the additional natural gas and NGL production associated with it.

"Most of the gas produced in the Permian is produced in association with oil production," Staples said in an interview Monday.

PERMIAN OIL, GAS, NGL PRODUCTION TO GROW

The study predicts Permian oil production to grow from a 2017 average of about 2.5 million b/d to about 5.5 million b/d by the mid-2020s. Meanwhile Permian natural gas production is expected to increase to approximately 24 Bcf/d by 2030, while Permian NGL production is expected to expand to almost 2.2 million b/d by 2040.

In addition to the pipeline infrastructure that needs to be built to move the oil, gas and NGLs from the Permian Basin, industry players also will need to build additional infrastructure on the other end of the pipe, particularly in the Gulf Coast region, Staples said.

"You're going have to have a volume of infrastructure to meet the needs of the growing manufacturing sector," he said. Processing plants and refineries will need to be built or expanded, as will the ports needed to move these products across the globe, he said.

Staples said that while the oil and gas industry would shoulder the load of building out the needed capacity "we need public policy that's in place that allows the infrastructure to be built that is essential to the growth of our state."

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 3/25/2019 at 11:40 AM, JJCar said:

You can't put somethong that specific on an International Trade Ageement.  China could commit to buy more U.S. products. 

Then if  SINOPEC or CNOOC just happen to sign a longterm oil purchase contract with US companies THAT WOULD BE ENFORCABLE. 

Re. other posts China and US trade and Us energy exports, China will be a long term large volume/value buyer/importer of US energy products once the trade issues are settled.

________________________________________________________________________________________

China will buy more US goods, top official says ahead of latest trade war talks

in World Economy News 26/03/2019

 

China will work to boost imports and achieve a more even balance of trade with the United States, a top Chinese official said on Sunday, just days ahead of the latest round of talks aimed at bringing an end to the two countries’ punishing tariff war.

Speaking at the China Development Forum in Beijing, Vice-Premier and Politburo Standing Committee member Han Zheng told a gathering of foreign business representatives and former government officials from the US and other countries that his government was committed to levelling the playing field.

“We do not aim to … [increase the] trade surplus and sincerely want to increase imports to achieve trade balance,” he said.

Han said also that China would improve market access, including shortening the “negative list” of industries in which foreign investment is limited or prohibited, and ban the practice of forcing foreign firms to transfer proprietary technology to joint venture partners.

“As the next step, we will continue to shorten the negative list for foreign investors and allow sole proprietorship of foreign businesses in more sectors,” he said.

China would also speed up the opening up of more sectors, including telecommunications, education and health care, he said.

“We will continue to strengthen intellectual property protection, prohibit forced technology transfers, and build a penalty and compensation system [for infringement cases],” added Han.

The pledges come as Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He, the country’s top trade negotiator, prepares to welcome US trade representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to Beijing for the latest round of trade talks, which get under way on Thursday.

Liu and his team will later travel to Washington for a second phase of the talks, starting on April 3, the White House said earlier.

US President Donald Trump has made reducing the trade gap with China one of the priorities of the negotiations and Beijing is reported to have promised to buy larger quantities of US agricultural and energy products to help achieve that goal.

The trade gap for goods bought and sold by the US and China in 2018 rose 11.6 per cent from the previous year to a record US$419 billion.
Source: South China Morning Post

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

On 3/26/2019 at 2:44 PM, ceo_energemsier said:

 

Edited by JJCar
typo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, JJCar said:

THREE NEW PIPELINES COSTING BILLION ? ? ?  They didn't build them to sit their empty

EXXON just applied for permit to build their own 1MILLION BBLS/DAY PIPELINE Permian to Gulf.

OVER NINE THOUSAND DRILLED BUT UNCOMPLETED WELLS (DUCS) AND GROWING.  MOST IN PERMIAN.

Present projections are for US oil production to go up over 1 Million Barrels this year. 

EVEN IF THERE WERE ZERO NEW WELLS THE COMPLETION OF PART OF THE DUCS WILL ADD MILLION OF BARRELS.

OPEC, Saudi's, Over leveraged Shale operators, and the Investors that invested in small to midsize shale operators are in denial.  

Which one are you ?

ALMOST FORGOT:  EXXON JUST FILED PERMIT APPLICATION FOR NEW PERMIAN TO GULF PIPELINE WITH 1 MILLION bbls/day CAPACITY>

So new Permian capacity to Gulf up to 3,37 Million bbls  .. .. .. ..  and more coming.

 

So I guess your game plan is to buy pipeline companies, short Midland Oil and Natural Gas futures and buy all the sand, water, and OFS companies in the Permian.  My Lord, you are short on facts and long on hype.  How lateral feet of drilling has to be completed to meet your production increase?  How much sand has to be mined and trucked and pumped to meet your increase in production?  How many SWD facilities have to be created to deal with all this production.  And lastly, how much demand has to be generated to take all this supply?  You do a nice job of cutting and pasting articles with out looking beneath the surface for facts.  Call up your local investment banker and see how many financiers are looking to buy into the Permian.  Answer-none.  Ask how many are looking to sell-many.  Chevron and Exxon bought in previous years and are going to subsidize their production costs by value adding in the downstream section.  As for all this additional pipeline capacity, just read Magellan Midstream just scrapped a project.  Also just read that WAHA hub gas is selling for negative price.  Excellent business plan, pay someone to take your product away.  Capitalism works because it separates the idiots from their money.  And the shale patch is currently full of idiots who are about to lose their shirts.  And that is why, the accountants and financiers are taking over the C suites at these E & P s and that is why production is going to disappoint hypsters.  As previously commentated, production may rise 1-1.2mm this year-exit 2018 to exit 2019.  Not even close to your new 2.37 mm + 1 mm estimate.  Wait for the q1 results where E & P s actually show a tiny amount of profit with a big dose of production let down.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, JJCar said:

THREE NEW PIPELINES COSTING BILLION ? ? ?  They didn't build them to sit their empty

EXXON just applied for permit to build their own 1MILLION BBLS/DAY PIPELINE Permian to Gulf.

OVER NINE THOUSAND DRILLED BUT UNCOMPLETED WELLS (DUCS) AND GROWING.  MOST IN PERMIAN.

Present projections are for US oil production to go up over 1 Million Barrels this year. 

EVEN IF THERE WERE ZERO NEW WELLS THE COMPLETION OF PART OF THE DUCS WILL ADD MILLION OF BARRELS.

OPEC, Saudi's, Over leveraged Shale operators, and the Investors that invested in small to midsize shale operators are in denial.  

Which one are you ?

ALMOST FORGOT:  EXXON JUST FILED PERMIT APPLICATION FOR NEW PERMIAN TO GULF PIPELINE WITH 1 MILLION bbls/day CAPACITY>

So new Permian capacity to Gulf up to 3,37 Million bbls  .. .. .. ..  and more coming.

 

 

Ahem 

Raymond James _ DUC Count Daffy _ 25 Mar 2019.pdf

 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

On 3/26/2019 at 7:26 PM, Cobra67 said:

So I guess your game plan is to buy pipeline companies, short Midland Oil and Natural Gas futures and buy all the sand, water, and OFS companies in the Permian.  My Lord, you are short on facts and long on hype.  How lateral feet of drilling has to be completed to meet your production increase?  How much sand has to be mined and trucked and pumped to meet MNyour increase in production?  How many SWD facilities have to be created to deal with all this production.  And lastly, how much demand has to be generated to take all this supply?  You do a nice job of cutting and pasting articles with out looking beneath the surface for facts.  Call up your local investment banker and see how many financiers are looking to buy into the Permian.  Answer-none.  Ask how many are looking to sell-many.  Chevron and Exxon bought in previous years and are going to subsidize their production costs by value adding in the downstream section.  As for all this additional pipeline capacity, just read Magellan Midstream just scrapped a project.  Also just read that WAHA hub gas is selling for negative price.  Excellent business plan, pay someone to take your product away.  Capitalism works because it separates the idiots from their money.  And the shale patch is currently full of idiots who are about to lose their shirts.  And that is why, the accountants and financiers are taking over the C suites at these E & P s and that is why production is going to disappoint hypsters.  As previously commentated, production may rise 1-1.2mm this year-exit 2018 to exit 2019.  Not even close to your new 2.37 mm + 1 mm estimate.  Wait for the q1 results where E & P s actually show a tiny amount of profit with a big dose of production let down

 

Edited by JJCar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On ‎3‎/‎24‎/‎2019 at 8:11 PM, JJCar said:

Yes,  over 9000 drilled but uncompleted wells.  Most in the Permian.  Call midsteam firm Plains All-American . They have the most storage tanks in the Permian.  They have built up tank cspacity in last three years.  TANKS ARE FULL.  Asked them what they are waiting for. 

Some will go to Petro/Chem and Gulf refineries

 

And Plains is adding more tank storage around the Pecos to Monahans to Imperial tank batteries. I saw several tank farms physically being added on too as pipelines are going to take some time to complete. Adding more storage is cheap insurance for the future of the Permian. It's a long way to the gulf with 48'' pipe. Takes some serious engineering and land buys.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Not withstanding Raymond's research( I've honestly never heard of him, but then again he's never heard of me either😊

A large percentage of those DUCS are going to be infill wells( I call them offset) and aren't going to come in as good as the parent wells and have even faster decline rates. A lot of those wells are DUCS because of spacing .( if you don't think pad and drilling programs can change in blink of an eye, you've never worked for Chesapeake when Aubry and Tom were at the helm)

We had a good idea years ago of the downside of fracing into a producing zone could do( collapse casing, sand in , water out a well. Hard shutdowns play hell on casing) Those DUCS will be there until the parent well reaches unprofitability, and once fracked, won't produce the large gains everyone is betting on.  Been there, done that.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

18 hours ago, Cobra67 said:

So I guess your game plan is to buy pipeline companies, short Midland Oil and Natural Gas futures and buy all the sand, water, and OFS companies in the Permian.  My Lord, you are short on facts and long on hype.  How lateral feet of drilling has to be completed to meet your production increase?  How much sand has to be mined and trucked and pumped to meet your increase in production?  How many SWD facilities have to be created to deal with all this production.  And lastly, how much demand has to be generated to take all this supply?  You do a nice job of cutting and pasting articles with out looking beneath the surface for facts.  Call up your local investment banker and see how many financiers are looking to buy into the Permian.  Answer-none.  Ask how many are looking to sell-many.  Chevron and Exxon bought in previous years and are going to subsidize their production costs by value adding in the downstream section.  As for all this additional pipeline capacity, just read Magellan Midstream just scrapped a project.  Also just read that WAHA hub gas is selling for negative price.  Excellent business plan, pay someone to take your product away.  Capitalism works because it separates the idiots from their money.  And the shale patch is currently full of idiots who are about to lose their shirts.  And that is why, the accountants and financiers are taking over the C suites at these E & P s and that is why production is going to disappoint hypsters.  As previously commentated, production may rise 1-1.2mm this year-exit 2018 to exit 2019.  Not even close to your new 2.37 mm + 1 mm estimate.  Wait for the q1 results where E & P s actually show a tiny amount of profit with a big dose of production let down.

That's pretty spot on from what I got from the Dallas Fed. 

Here's an interesting survey from them as well

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2019/1901.aspx#tab-questions

Edited by Justin Hicks
Added word
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites