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Edited by JJCar

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4 hours ago, JJCar said:

Trump believed Mohammed bin Salman over the U.S. CIA report regarding the responsibility of the butchering of a Washington Post Journalist Khashoggi because MBS "Told me he wasn't involved :

I would be shocked if Trump believes him. Trump says for effect, not because the are true, or not. The two countries are intertwined, and have been since the late 30s.  This just a lever for Trump, though a very poor one. Heck, internally this is good press, don't mess with MBS. Now the fact the defense sales were made up, at some point Trump might get pissed about that. The MOUs were mostly nothingness, just a panic to show something was accomplished. 

Now how will Trump tolerate them killing the petrodollar? Iran, Iraq, and Libya did poorly trying to leave the reservation. 

https://in.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-usa-oil-exclusive/exclusive-saudi-arabia-threatens-to-ditch-dollar-oil-trades-to-stop-nopec-sources-idINKCN1RH008

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(edited)

On 4/5/2019 at 5:47 PM, John Foote said:

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Edited by JJCar

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Trump lies pathologically. That is a different issue. Folks who want what he is delivering just accept it as part of the deal. Think of the evangelical support, what a cynical relationship. But make no mistake, Trump is delivering their agenda far better than the Bushes did despite B43 being a true believer. What is the saying, God works in mysterious ways, or the Arabic term, inshall'ah.

Historically the KSA strives for stability in the market, and for decades were the swing producer. They can't be that anymore, and it's not just shale that caused that. The fiscal demands on Aramco are so much more that they can't afford huge drops in production to maintain stability. 

Remember KSA also sort of created shale. Had they been able to flood the market earlier (they weren't), the long run above $90, starting putting massive shale, tar sands, and various green things into play, wouldn't have happened. Early on they even discouraged the sustained run up. Count the wells, the drilling activity. Aramco wasn't holding back. Look at their budget. KSA is trapped as much as anyone, it's just a more comfortable trapped for now. It will be ugly within ten years. That sustained up period allowed KSA spending to go crazy, and pulling back, with the exploding population and expectations, and pulling back isn't easy, hence Vision 2030. Their high profile regional power player is relatively new their history, and expense, and they are remarkable for their recent horrendous track record. They are much better at managing themselves, but those values and techniques don't export very well, though folks will take their money to say they do.

I am all for the US military adventurism and budget to be dramatically slashed. That's a mindset not shared by most in government. Our militarization, and selling arms and threatening, creates much of what we try to avoid.

And a lot of US people and business have benefited tremendously from the relationship with the KSA, and I did OK myself. Huge effective lobbying by both Americans quietly, and of course KSA itself.

For now the defense industry is making out like bandits, selling to both sides. As is normal, not good for the actual soldier, but good for the business.

 

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On 4/5/2019 at 5:47 PM, John Foote said:

 

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