Russia Signals OPEC And Allies Could Raise Oil Output From June

According to Reuters, one of the key Russian officials to foster a supply pact with OPEC, Kirill Dmitriev, signaled on Monday Russia wanted to raise oil output when it meets with OPEC in June because of improving market conditions and falling stockpiles. Dmitriev, head of the Russian state’s direct investment fund, was the first Russian official to predict a deal with OPEC in 2016 and since then has become a key defender of the pact despite pressure from domestic oil firms to drop the agreement. Dmitriev, an envoy for Moscow in the Middle East in general and Saudi Arabia in particular, had in recent months said it was still too early to terminate output cuts, echoing the position of OPEC’s de facto leader, Saudi Arabia. But in an apparent change of position, Dmitriev said on Monday supply cuts may not be required after June.
“It is quite possible that given the improving market situation and falling stocks, (OPEC and its allies) could decide in June this year to abandon supply cuts and subsequently increase output,” Dmitriev told a conference in Moscow.

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Knowing the above, this article makes a lot of sense. From a Russian perspective...

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Russia as an informal OPEC leader...

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It's the preparation of "fields" for something will come - Dmitrev is the architect of Russia's OPEC deal...

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Whether or not to extend output cuts beyond the summer? Will be as a Russia said.

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So, cracks in the cartel ....

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Oil climbs to five month high on OPEC cuts. 

 

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For what it's worth, both Khalid Al Falah and Amin Nasser take close council from very well connected westerners. One was key in the Bush43 administration (Khalid's consultant), the other a former BP senior strategist (Amin's consultant). I knew about the chummy relationship developing with Russia some time ago. Khalid's consultant never talked business, but Amin's would. I played tennis both of them.

I have wondered how this alliance would hold up with Russia's influence and support in Syria and Iran diametrically opposed to KSA's interest, but it hasn't effected things. There is a willingness to align oppositional sides in the region I don't quite understand. MBS hasn't really stuck his nose in Aramco as much as you'd think, except for the IPO thing. The advice these Saudi leaders receive are from folks who know global politics and the high end oil industry very, very, well. Folks like Khalid Al Falah and Amin Al Nasser are very smart, and don't think otherwise. We just struggle to understand all the considerations they have in play. The decisions might not seem logical to us, but there is a logic to them.

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2 hours ago, rainman said:

Russia as an informal OPEC leader...

Russia is playing a good hand. Saudi does most of the heavy lifting on volumes, Russia gets the price benefit anyway.

For how long will it continue - Saudi made a mistake cutting below 10mbd w/o at least first waiting for Russia to meet their targets. They would have got US$70 brent anyway (maybe with more lag) given so many geopolitical challenges - Venezuela, Libya et al.

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2 hours ago, rainman said:

Russia as an informal OPEC leader...

Russia does what is best for Russia.  OPEC is pretty dysfunctional, and some of the members will follow Russia just to keep selling their oil and keep the cash flowing, not matter what the price may be.

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Yes they need to ensure the price of oil does not get too high (i.e. >$75 Brent) or else it will hurt demand and then the prices will fall like a rock once again. 

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Gee it's almost like that silly supply and demand thingy they taught us in economics means something… 😍

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(edited)

Almost time to buy SCO (3x Oil Short).  Anyone who's bought it over the last 3 months would have lost most of their money.  

Edited by Zhong Lu

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On 4/8/2019 at 5:32 PM, John Foote said:

There is a willingness to align oppositional sides in the region I don't quite understand.

Money and regional influence. Tit for tat.

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Tit for tat would be easy. It's not that at all. Even living it, I can't begin to explain. 

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