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(edited)

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Edited by JJCar

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How do you know that inventory levels have gone up worldwide since the cuts started?

 

I mean even if you only look at the US(where alot of shale oil is maybe getting stuck?) total inventory has declined by about 9 million barrels since the start of the year, and thats in a season when inventory levels usually rises.

 

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(edited)

On 4/11/2019 at 8:42 AM, Jon#2 said:

 

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On 4/11/2019 at 8:42 AM, Jon#2 said:

 

 

 

Edited by JJCar
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13 hours ago, Jon#2 said:

How do you know that inventory levels have gone up worldwide since the cuts started?

I mean even if you only look at the US (where alot of shale oil is maybe getting stuck?) total inventory has declined by about 9 million barrels since the start of the year, and thats in a season when inventory levels usually rises.

Logical thinking.  Fair enough question.

 

5 minutes ago, JJCar said:

World Inventories gone up ?  Per Orbital Insights data.  They survey 25,000 Oil Storage tanks worldwide or over 5 Billion bbls storage. 

US Inventory ? over last couple of months US has IMPORTED 1.5 Million bbs/day LESS (Venezuela, Iran, Saudi embargo heavy, Canadian). US has EXPORTED 1.7 Million MORESo cumulative :

Good answer.

This thread pokes a fairly significant point that seems mostly avoided, ignored, or incompetently missed by much of Mainstream Media.

Good for pointing this out, @JJCar.

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15 hours ago, Jon#2 said:

How do you know that inventory levels have gone up worldwide since the cuts started?

 

I mean even if you only look at the US(where alot of shale oil is maybe getting stuck?) total inventory has declined by about 9 million barrels since the start of the year, and thats in a season when inventory levels usually rises.

 

You are correct Jon, about half of US light oil getting "stuck" there. The ratio of heavy to light oil in US storage has probably fallen dramatically over last few months but next year, once Permian pipelines complete, there will be large increase in exports of light US oil AND large increase in imports of heavy crude, which US refineries designed for. Does that help?

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11 hours ago, JJCar said:

World Inventories gone up ?  Per Orbital Insights data.  They survey 25,000 Oil Storage tanks worldwide or over 5 Billion bbls storage. 

US Inventory ? over last couple of months US has IMPORTED 1.5 Million bbs/day LESS (Venezuela, Iran, Saudi embargo heavy, Canadian). US has EXPORTED 1.7 Million MORESo cumulative :

1.5 less daily X est 40days = 60 Million bbls that China is buying fat nice discount rom Venezuela, Iran, etc)

1,7 more  daily X est 30 days += 51 million bbls/day ( that S. Korea, Europe, etc buying from US and not OPEC)

So if nothing changed you would see US INVENTORY UP approx. 111 million bbls.  That is 111 million bbls OPEC is not selling.

Like many novice investors they look at weekly rig count, weekly inventory , etc WITHOUT REASONING WAHT's BEHIND THE NUMBERS .  

Downvoting my post becouse i asked a question, classy..

 

The reason i brought up the inventory levels of the US is becouse thats where i thought you were getting the "Inventory has gone up" from.

I dont know much about Orbital Insight, but if you trust these guys and its true that inventory has gone up substantially so far this year i would definitely be in the bear camp too.

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(edited)

On 4/12/2019 at 9:56 AM, Jon#2 said:

 

Edited by JJCar

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So how can a Joe Sixpack like myself tell which information is correct?

Data from Orbital Insights seems logical and legit. At the same time we hear that US productions are really stuck without pipeline capacity to bring them out

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