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China, U.S. Hold 'Productive' Trade Talks In Beijing

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China and the United States held “productive” trade talks in Beijing on Wednesday and will continue discussions in Washington next week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said, as the two try to end their trade war.Mnuchin, along with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, held a day of discussions, before Chinese Vice Premier Liu He goes to Washington next week for another round of talks in what could be the end game for negotiations. “Ambassador Lighthizer and I just concluded productive meetings with China’s Vice Premier Liu He. We will continue our talks in Washington, D.C. next week,” Mnuchin wrote on his Twitter account. He gave no details.The three men appeared before cameras at the end of their talks at a state guest house in Beijing, chatting amiably amongst themselves but did not speak to reporters. Liu had entertained his U.S. guests on Tuesday night just after they arrived in the Chinese capital. “We did. We had a nice working dinner, thank you,” Mnuchin told reporters at his Beijing hotel earlier on Wednesday, when asked if he had met with Liu on Tuesday. He did not elaborate.

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It’s for month ‘productive’ this will go on for years..

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How productive can they be when they keep saying for months and months how productive the talks are? I suppose the same headlines will be in July ...😂

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What is essence of productive talks? Theater for the masses....

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The U. S. and China remain economically interdependent through trade and holding debt, so it's not like the relationship, on pragmatic terms, can be too adversarial.

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The best solution is cutting trade with China and trading with less threatening nations instead. We do not need China. They need us. 

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14 hours ago, 50 shades of black said:

Key question: Are these tariffs going to end soon? "Smoke and mirror"...

Probably not.  And I anticipate yet another undescribed effect:  the movement of tooling.

Manufacturing today requires what is known as "tooling," the special stamping dies and molds used for mass production in metals and plastics.  You need those finished parts in order to assemble your final product.  tooling is expensive, and is a long-lead-time item.  If your sales are threatened by tariffs, and your counter-party Chinese are drifting into a more adversarial country and relationship, it makes sense to re-think the placement of your tooling. Moving tooling back to the USA provides safety and security for the ability to continue parts production.  Can US manufacture make parts?  Of course it can.  Machines that make parts tend to be either semi-automated (for example, stamping out auto fenders) or fully automated (example: switch-box covers from plastics).  The labor component is not enough in cost disparity to justify risking the stranding or seizure of the tooling.  So the smart manufacturer moves that tooling back to the USA. 

Once the tooling is secure, the manufacturer can rapidly shift production to the USA, and where cheap labor is needed, you always have that reservoir of migrants from Central America.   Yet labor costs are no longer the overwhelming determinant they once were, as tooling becomes more sophisticated.  Don't be surprised that the uncertainties of dealing with China, now so exposed, will not result in a major drop in US-China trade.  

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2 hours ago, vad.mm said:

Самое большое заблуждение.

The biggest misconception. (google translate)  Responding to Ron, who said:

The best solution is to reduce trade with China and trade with less threatening countries instead. We do not need China. They need us.

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On 5/1/2019 at 7:55 PM, 50 shades of black said:

Key question: Are these tariffs going to end soon? "Smoke and mirror"...

Literally tariffs aimed at reducing import and hence foreign goods with a wide range of quality available to the market. But when cheap raw materials are of concern...... problems might arise. It might not end soon until deficit is corrected and consumers are no longer able to afford to pay for their necessities......... Hence..... exceptions might be suitable to be proposed for raw materials compared to import of finished products........

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On 5/2/2019 at 9:31 AM, ronwagn said:

The best solution is cutting trade with China and trading with less threatening nations instead. We do not need China. They need us. 

China has the second largest population in the world....... The volume of internal consumption alone is able to sustain most business if not all. By selling basic necessity for 1 yuan (~ 15 cents) the economic system is creating many millionaires if not multi-millionaires. Not to mention how other pricing systems are creating multi-millionaires if not billionaires. China has huge fund reserves and is a big holder of bonds everywhere else. 

Comparing US economy...... internal consumption is moderate to good. A good size of population is dieting. If unemployment; high labor; high raw materials and high energy costs are not major issues hindering the healthy shape of markets it could probably sustain for sometimes....... With minimal reserve fund to back the country and internal supply chains dominated by japanese companies it will take some drastic effort and determnation to achieve the massive turn over or the about turn.........

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In a change, no immediate trade retaliations from China

 

Published: May 11, 2019 9:24 a.m. ET

China held back from immediate retaliation for higher U.S. tariffs, unlike in past rounds, taking time to weigh its options amid uncertainty over how the Chinese economy would weather a full-bore trade conflict.

A failure to break an impasse in talks in Washington on Friday opened a new phase in the trade fight after more than five months of back-and-forth negotiations. This time, some economists and analysts said, Beijing is taking stock of potential economic damage from higher tariffs.

The U.S. raised punitive tariffs to 25%, from 10%, for $200 billion in goods leaving China on Friday and thereafter. President Trump also ordered staff to begin the paperwork to impose levies on the more than $300 billion worth of everything else China sells to the U.S.

While Beijing has met previous volleys of tariffs from the U.S. by raising duties on American goods—and the government has promised to retaliate—it held its fire. Though China has more limited tariff options, since it imports fewer products from the U.S. than the other way around, the Chinese leadership is also constrained by an economy that is in a shaky recovery from a sharp slowdown.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-holds-fire-in-latest-trade-skirmish-with-u-s-11557571638?mod=hp_lead_pos1

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Dry Bulk Market: The Case for the US Coal Exports to China Trade

While the US-China trade friction of the past few months has, undoubtedly, hurt shipping in more ways than one (dry bulk shipping not excluded), it seems that some good can also be made of it, especially if a sustainable agreement can be reached. This could involve the rise of US exports of commodities to China, from soyabeans to LNG, but most importantly coal.

In a recent note, shipbroker Banchero Costa said that “with increasing investment in renewable energy, the United States continues to steadily phase-out its aging coal-fired power plants. In 2018, the US retired 12.9 GW of coal-fired capacity. According to some industry projections, further 6 GW of coal-fired capacity will be retired in 2019, and 5 GW in 2020. With domestic demand in decline, US coal producers are becoming increasingly reliant on the export market. Whilst in 2006 only 4 percent of US coal production was exported, the ratio went up to a record 15 percent in 2018. In 2018, the United States exported 105 mln tonnes of coal, which was 19.3 percent up year-on-year, and the second highest annual total ever (second only to the 114.2 mln tonnes recorded in 2012). And this year started extremely well as well, with a record 10.8 mln tonnes loaded in March 2019, up from 7.3 mln tonnes in March 2018, according to Refinitiv data.
Of the 105 mln tonnes exported in 2018, 55.8 mln tonnes was coking coal (up 11.3 percent year-on-year) whilst 49.1 mln tonnes was thermal coal (up 29.8 percent year-on-year)”.

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According to the shipbroker, “the destinations are quite mixed. The vast majority of US coal exports are loaded on the East Coast (at ports including Hampton Roads, Baltimore, Newport News, Mobile and New Orleans), so from a geographical point of view, the most
obvious destinations are Europe and the Middle East, as well as the East Coast South America. And indeed, about half of coal cargoes from the US in 2018 ended up in Europe (in particular in the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, the UK, and the Ukraine) and in North Africa (in particular Morocco and Egypt), with many cargoes also going to Brazil and Argentina. About one quarter of US coal cargoes last year ended in Asia (especially to India, but also to Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, and Thailand). In particular, the top destinations for US coking coal in 2018 where Brazil (7.6 mln tonnes), the Netherlands (5.6 mln tonnes), and Japan (5.4 mln tonnes). The top destinations for US thermal coal in 2018 were India (10.5 mln tonnes), South Korea (5.8 mln tonnes), and Netherlands(5.6 mln tonnes)”.

Lamberts_Point_Coal_Terminal_dry_bulk_ca

Banchero Costa added that “US exports have been benefiting from strong demand for coal on the international market, relatively high international prices for coal, and the fact that domestic demand for coal in the US was slashed due to environmental pressures. Thermal coal exports to India have also benefited from a partial ban on petcoke imports to India, and Indian importers have been hence substituting thermal coal for petcoke. What will be very interesting to see this year is if the trade talks can have any impact on US coal exports to China. Coal flows from the US to China have been very modest in recent years. They peaked at over 1 mln tonnes in February 2017, and since then have been on a declining trend, averaging less than 0.5 mln tonnes per month. However, it has often been speculated that one way to break the negotiating impasse between the Trump administration and China was for China to rump up imports of US commodities, such as oil and LNG, to help reduce it’s trade deficit versus the US. This could perhaps include coal as well, and if this was really to happen than it would be very positive development for dry bulk tonne miles”, the shipbroker concluded.

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13 hours ago, vad.mm said:

Самое большое заблуждение.

Was haben sie gesagt? Que? 

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7 hours ago, ceo_energemsier said:

In a change, no immediate trade retaliations from China

 

Published: May 11, 2019 9:24 a.m. ET

The U.S. raised punitive tariffs to 25%, from 10%, for $200 billion in goods leaving China on Friday and thereafter. President Trump also ordered staff to begin the paperwork to impose levies on the more than $300 billion worth of everything else China sells to the U.S.

 

I speculate that yet another factor in Chinese reasoning this time around is that if the Chinese exporters do not "eat" the tariff charges, and let the American importer be faced with paying them, then the US Buyers will bleat to Washington that the tariffs are hurting their businesses - thus pressuring Trump to vacate the tariffs.  If that plays out, then China wins the game, without lifting a finger.  And it just might. 

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1 hour ago, Jan van Eck said:

I speculate that yet another factor in Chinese reasoning this time around is that if the Chinese exporters do not "eat" the tariff charges, and let the American importer be faced with paying them, then the US Buyers will bleat to Washington that the tariffs are hurting their businesses - thus pressuring Trump to vacate the tariffs.  If that plays out, then China wins the game, without lifting a finger.  And it just might. 

We went through phase 1 of the tariffs and the Chinese didnt do much , they did lose 5 trillion$ in market value, while the US economy grew. I think that the Chinese have a lot more to lose than the US in an out out trade shut down. They have a billion+ people to feed, heat, cool and move and a massive industrial complex that needs those people and that needs energy. Short term, mid term and long term yields for the US stance and the Chinese stance, well I believe the US may lose out in the short term in the worst case but in the long term , the US will win and we will all have a better, perhaps fairer trade system between the US and China.

Internally, the Chinese Gov. is not in a very good light with the population but then they can suppress anything and make dog crap look like gold if the Gov had to suppress. I think today , the Chinese gov cannot go and do what they did with T. Square.

A lot of manufacturing jobs are back in the US, lot of petchem and related industries are back in the US, even Chinese companies are investing billions along the USGC because of the shale.

Back in October last year, there was a topic on this site going on about US and China trade war and I had said at the time, we wont see any escalation from the Chinese m because winter is coming and they need lot of energy for heating and lot of food for feeding their folks.

Now that spring is here and soon summer the Chinese may flex a bit of muscle but not much, they still need energy resources and food, what they hoarded before winter is now going to run out.

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(edited)

On 5/2/2019 at 2:31 AM, ronwagn said:

The best solution is cutting trade with China and trading with less threatening nations instead. We do not need China. They need us. 

This is like a Brexit metaphor too. Shove your 'talks'.

Brexit - 3 years. Trade War - 18 months. ''Productive'' talks. Yeah. Ok. 

HAHA just realised this thread is from May. 

May!! #productive #extratariff

Edited by DayTrader
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2 hours ago, DayTrader said:

This is like a Brexit metaphor too. Shove your 'talks'.

Brexit - 3 years. Trade War - 18 months. ''Productive'' talks. Yeah. Ok. 

HAHA just realised this thread is from May. 

May!! #productive #extratariff

Will the Brexiteers win in the end? I certainly hope so. America now seems more aligned with the Brexiteers and Eastern Europe than Western Europe. Possibly Italy also. 

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We had better do. If you think this political craziness is something wait until they try to cancel Brexit and ignore the vote entirely. 

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Yep. I'll check it out. Allmyrants.org  - I like it already

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18 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

America now seems more aligned with the Brexiteers and Eastern Europe than Western Europe. Possibly Italy also. 

That is unlikely.  German autos are well liked in the USA.  Also lots of high-end German machinery, tooling, and molded plastics comes to the USA.  American buyers import French wines, tires, shipyard parts, all kinds of stuff.  Is anyone going to drop their Mercedes, BMW, Volkswagen, Fiat, Lambo, Ferrari, Peugeot, so they can pick up a Skoda instead  (note: Skoda is now owned by Volks).  OK, so you will be supporting Brexit by treating yourself to a Bentley.  Guess what:  owned by Volks. 

Want a CNC-controlled sawmill?  Built in Austria.  CNC molding machine?  Built in Germany. Lifeboat engine?   Built in Denmark. THe US is fond of Western European goods.  Including Edam cheese.  

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No one's stopping you buy all that. When you fancy a change, and decent cheese, you know where we are. 

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I totally agree, I am talking about the statist bent of Western Europe. Of course if the Democrats take over, Western Europe will love us again. Trade is only one issue. Statism, culture, foreign policy, are some of the others. American culture is very divided right now, but so is European. 

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Just seen news that China are buying Argentinian soymeal over American soy beans.

Yep, the talks are going well. 

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