Solar Panels at 15 cents per watt

[markslawson + 1,042]

1 hour ago, Michael Sanches said:

I agree with you. In fact, Arthur C. Clarke put it this way, "Science, sufficiently advanced, will seem like magic [fantasy]." So, if you are saying that science has to advance for us to have massive, reliable, cheap electric storage systems (a current fantasy/magic), I agree.

Someone else quoting one of Arthur C's laws! I'm stoked. Anyway, yes, when we have anti-gravity belts and can teleport maybe storing energy won't be such a problem.. 

[Michael Sanches + 187]

10 hours ago, markslawson said:

Someone else quoting one of Arthur C's laws! I'm stoked. Anyway, yes, when we have anti-gravity belts and can teleport maybe storing energy won't be such a problem.. 

1. I don't see us developing anti-gravity devices for a long, long time. That is why I don't think we will colonize many planets because of the gravitational differences. I see us much more likely to develop O'Neil Cylinders where we can live in space at a constant 1g. Planets, moons and asteroids will be used for mining, tourism, scientific research, and the few people who are the ultimate loners. We will live in the O'Neil Cylinders above and go to these places for two week shifts just like an oil derrick today. Then shifts will switch and workers will go home for 2 weeks to be with family and live in 1g.

2. I don't see teleportation until/unless we meet 4th+ dimensional creatures. I think only Mr. Sphere could "teleport" A. Square from one location to another (Flatland).

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

18 hours ago, NickW said:

Anecdotal here but I have 440w of 2009 vintage solar panels sitting on the roof of my deceased fathers house. I put them there when I went abroad and grid connected them through one of these. 

http://www.smartgreenenergycompany.com/mastervoltsoladi.html

Lying flat (not ideal at 51 degrees latitude) in the midday sun the 440W of panels were producing just over 300W which indicates their degradation over the past decade has been minimal - perhaps 5-6%. 

 

Maybe we're just talking past each other. I see your father's panel is only producing about 68% of what it should and you're saying it's only lost 5-6%? Or do you mean5-6% per year? 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

18 hours ago, NickW said:

Facts do not tally with my bluster  - does not compute - does not not compute - does not compute.......

 

meanwhile in real world

https://www.engineering.com/DesignerEdge/DesignerEdgeArticles/ArticleID/7475/What-Is-the-Lifespan-of-a-Solar-Panel.aspx

PV, the degradation rate is less than 0.5% for panels made before 2000, and less than 0.4% for panels made after 2000. That means that a panel manufactured today should produce 92% of its original power after 20 years, quite a bit higher than the 80% estimated by the 1% rule.

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51664.pdf

Nearly 2000 degradation rates, measured on individual modules or entire systems, have been assembled from the literature, showing a median value of 0.5%/year.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/pip.3043

Our analysis indicates that the solar modules degraded at a rate of ~0.7%/year because of discoloration and weakened solder bonds.

No bluster, just intelligence. You should try it sometime. 

To quote from your same link, "The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) performed a meta-analysis of studies". Exactly what I said above, no original work, just regurgitation and statistical manipulation of "other studies" most of which were funded by Industry. But hey, I'm sure you would be 100% confident in studies about cancer funded by tobacco companies, then blessed by the FDA because they did a meta study of those studies. Meanwhile your own father's installation has already degraded beyond the warranty provision. Shall we make a little bet as to whether the company that sold the system is still in business to honor their "warranty"?

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

18 hours ago, markslawson said:

No - I'm just going by the price in the original ad. I'm sure you're pricing is correct and the ad is wacked out nonsense, but I'm just using the price as an illustration of, okay, say if you are able to buy the panels for virtually nothing but they are still next to useless in grid sale power, without some very favourable laws. This is different again to any home solar system, the profitability of which would depend on feed in tariffs in the state, which I wouldn't know much about..   

Hmm, I just went by $0.15 times one million equals $150,000 then estimated another $50k for the inverters etc. 

Depending on the states, subsidies can be very generous indeed. As the chevron project showed, without subsidies there's zero economics to running solar 

http://clui.org/ludb/site/abandoned-solar-power-plant

[NickW + 2,714]

7 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Maybe we're just talking past each other. I see your father's panel is only producing about 68% of what it should and you're saying it's only lost 5-6%? Or do you mean5-6% per year? 

At 52 degrees latitude in hazy sunshine in mid May lying flat rather than angled towards the sun

That might give you a few clues🙄

 

Edited May 13, 2019 by NickW

[NickW + 2,714]

7 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Maybe we're just talking past each other. I see your father's panel is only producing about 68% of what it should and you're saying it's only lost 5-6%? Or do you mean5-6% per year? 

Doing a calculation from this and adding in the various factors described above

http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/apps4/pvest.php

the panels with their rated efficiency in those conditions should have been producing about 320W. 

They were producing 290-300W. 

So 295/320 = 92.2% 

So over a decade the panels have degraded by 7.8%.

BTW - as the panels were lying flat they weren't particularly clean. 

 

[NickW + 2,714]

6 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

No bluster, just intelligence. You should try it sometime. 

To quote from your same link, "The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) performed a meta-analysis of studies". Exactly what I said above, no original work, just regurgitation and statistical manipulation of "other studies" most of which were funded by Industry. But hey, I'm sure you would be 100% confident in studies about cancer funded by tobacco companies, then blessed by the FDA because they did a meta study of those studies. Meanwhile your own father's installation has already degraded beyond the warranty provision. Shall we make a little bet as to whether the company that sold the system is still in business to honor their "warranty"?

Whereas we are to just believe the unsubstantiated bullsh1t you spout off on here without question? 

[markslawson + 1,042]

5 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Hmm, I just went by $0.15 times one million equals $150,000 then estimated another $50k for the inverters etc.

Ooooh - damn, I was thinking of 1,000s not millions - oh well, glad you pointed that out.. anyway, my original point still stands.. they are a waste of time.. and tnks..  

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

6 hours ago, NickW said:

Whereas we are to just believe the unsubstantiated bullsh1t you spout off on here without question? 

And if I retaliate in kind to you and your ilk, I'm the one censured with a "demerit". Not going to play your game. Meanwhile your propensity for iterative disclosure when I've crushed you yet again gets old too. Bottom line it's all BS piled on BS from the PV manufacturers. Even the testing procedure uses a KILOWATT per square meter. Anywhere on the planet the sun shines that brightly? I've backed what I've said with links, you've spouted insults, but I'm the bad guy and your sock puppet backs your play, or are you the sock puppet? Gets hard to keep it all straight   

[Michael Sanches + 187]

Solar panels are nice in case we have an EMP attack. They retain about 33% of their capability after such an attack. So, after the grid goes down, you can still purify water on a hot plate with free energy. Likewise, if you have a simple, small, electric cooler, you can preserve some food.

[NickW + 2,714]

4 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

And if I retaliate in kind to you and your ilk, I'm the one censured with a "demerit". Not going to play your game. Meanwhile your propensity for iterative disclosure when I've crushed you yet again gets old too. Bottom line it's all BS piled on BS from the PV manufacturers. Even the testing procedure uses a KILOWATT per square meter. Anywhere on the planet the sun shines that brightly? I've backed what I've said with links, you've spouted insults, but I'm the bad guy and your sock puppet backs your play, or are you the sock puppet? Gets hard to keep it all straight   

Your link is not really relevant to the subject. It simply covers what can go wrong. It doesn't appear to have any data on degradation rates for solar panels. 

The testing procedure you describe above is about determining the efficiency conversion of electricity from sun light and has nothing to do with degradation rates 

You will have to do better than that Professor Calculus. 

[NickW + 2,714]

4 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

And if I retaliate in kind to you and your ilk, I'm the one censured with a "demerit". Not going to play your game. Meanwhile your propensity for iterative disclosure when I've crushed you yet again gets old too. Bottom line it's all BS piled on BS from the PV manufacturers. Even the testing procedure uses a KILOWATT per square meter. Anywhere on the planet the sun shines that brightly? I've backed what I've said with links, you've spouted insults, but I'm the bad guy and your sock puppet backs your play, or are you the sock puppet? Gets hard to keep it all straight   

Here you go Prof

19 year old primary research study in Ghana (Tropical hot, wet climate) measuring degradtion rates of solar panels at the university.

Median degradation rate 1.3% per year 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317081715_Reliability_and_Degradation_of_Solar_PV_Modules-Case_Study_of_19-Year-Old_Polycrystalline_Modules_in_Ghana

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

6 hours ago, NickW said:

Here you go Prof

19 year old primary research study in Ghana (Tropical hot, wet climate) measuring degradtion rates of solar panels at the university.

Median degradation rate 1.3% per year 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317081715_Reliability_and_Degradation_of_Solar_PV_Modules-Case_Study_of_19-Year-Old_Polycrystalline_Modules_in_Ghana

Edumacate yourself some more

http://engineering.case.edu/centers/sdle/sites/engineering.case.edu.centers.sdle/files/iea-pvps_t13-01_2014_review_of_failures_of_photovoltaic_modules_final.pdf

Bottom line, you'll grasp at every straw on the farm to try to be "right", while ignoring the mountain of evidence in front of you. I repeat my earlier statement and will add to it. First your father's PV vendor is out of business, and second, on the sunniest day, you'll Still only produce 300 watts! 

[NickW + 2,714]

2 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Edumacate yourself some more

http://engineering.case.edu/centers/sdle/sites/engineering.case.edu.centers.sdle/files/iea-pvps_t13-01_2014_review_of_failures_of_photovoltaic_modules_final.pdf

Bottom line, you'll grasp at every straw on the farm to try to be "right", while ignoring the mountain of evidence in front of you. I repeat my earlier statement and will add to it. First your father's PV vendor is out of business, and second, on the sunniest day, you'll Still only produce 300 watts! 

Thanks for proving my point

Page 2

One key factor of reducing the costs of photovoltaic systems is to increase the reliability and the service life time of the PV modules. Today’s statistics show degradation rates of the rated power for crystalline silicon PV modules of 0.8%/year [Jordan11].

[NickW + 2,714]

2 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Edumacate yourself some more

http://engineering.case.edu/centers/sdle/sites/engineering.case.edu.centers.sdle/files/iea-pvps_t13-01_2014_review_of_failures_of_photovoltaic_modules_final.pdf

Bottom line, you'll grasp at every straw on the farm to try to be "right", while ignoring the mountain of evidence in front of you. I repeat my earlier statement and will add to it. First your father's PV vendor is out of business, and second, on the sunniest day, you'll Still only produce 300 watts! 

 

There was no 'PV vendor'. I bought the panels in 2009 for an off grid application along with some former telecom batteries. When I went to Saudi I moved the panels to my parents and bought the small grid tie inverter and sold the batteries. 

As for the manufacturers:

The panels are Schott 

https://www.schott.com/uk/english/syn/applications/energy_environment.html

The grid tie inverter is Mastervolt

https://www.mastervolt.com/

Both appear to be in business contrary to your baseless claim. 

 

Clearly you know nothing about the way in which solar panels work, nor do you appear to know anything about how latitude, angle of panels etc will influence output. 

I know your extremely limited mental capacity will struggle on this but I will explain for others should they be interested.

At 52 degrees north latitude, lying flat, on the 12th May in diffuse sunshine 440W of solar with a conversion efficiency of about 18% will produce approx 315-320W of electricity even if brand new. 

These panels are 10 years old and needed cleaning. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

28 minutes ago, NickW said:

 

There was no 'PV vendor'. I bought the panels in 2009 for an off grid application along with some former telecom batteries. When I went to Saudi I moved the panels to my parents and bought the small grid tie inverter and sold the batteries. 

As for the manufacturers:

The panels are Schott 

https://www.schott.com/uk/english/syn/applications/energy_environment.html

The grid tie inverter is Mastervolt

https://www.mastervolt.com/

Both appear to be in business contrary to your baseless claim. 

 

Clearly you know nothing about the way in which solar panels work, nor do you appear to know anything about how latitude, angle of panels etc will influence output. 

I know your extremely limited mental capacity will struggle on this but I will explain for others should they be interested.

At 52 degrees north latitude, lying flat, on the 12th May in diffuse sunshine 440W of solar with a conversion efficiency of about 18% will produce approx 315-320W of electricity even if brand new. 

These panels are 10 years old and needed cleaning. 

Much as you like to peacock strut, you're not at my level and never will be. I've DESIGNED semiconductors and was a senior vice president of a semiconductor company. I've forgotten more about how these work then you'll ever learn, so quit your braying. 

Again you're grasping at straws but I see the disconnect. I look at these from my background as discreet devices. You look at these from your (non existent) background as functional modules. What's inside those modules are tons and tons of constantly failing discrete components that are highly paralleled Because they're going to fail. The fault vectors are legion and the paper I posted for your edification lists many of them. A test jig setup will clearly show degradation at my number. Vendors hedge by de rating the output much as Marantz amplifiers cheated back in the day by pretending their 140 watt amplifier was only 100 watts to give them a better THD number at "rated" output. 

The vendor I spoke of would not include you, but the typical sales/installer guarantee. Those guys are gone, they disappear on a regular basis BECAUSE of warranties. As it is, should you wish to return your panels under warranty, it won't happen because you're not "a qualified installer".

[Rodent + 1,424]

Alright, alright.  This pissing match has grown tiresome 

[NickW + 2,714]

14 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Much as you like to peacock strut, you're not at my level and never will be. I've DESIGNED semiconductors and was a senior vice president of a semiconductor company. I've forgotten more about how these work then you'll ever learn, so quit your braying. 

Again you're grasping at straws but I see the disconnect. I look at these from my background as discreet devices. You look at these from your (non existent) background as functional modules. What's inside those modules are tons and tons of constantly failing discrete components that are highly paralleled Because they're going to fail. The fault vectors are legion and the paper I posted for your edification lists many of them. A test jig setup will clearly show degradation at my number. Vendors hedge by de rating the output much as Marantz amplifiers cheated back in the day by pretending their 140 watt amplifier was only 100 watts to give them a better THD number at "rated" output. 

The vendor I spoke of would not include you, but the typical sales/installer guarantee. Those guys are gone, they disappear on a regular basis BECAUSE of warranties. As it is, should you wish to return your panels under warranty, it won't happen because you're not "a qualified installer".

Of course you were......

Did the business go bankrupt

[NickW + 2,714]

15 hours ago, Rodent said:

Alright, alright.  This pissing match has grown tiresome 

Its only turned into a 'pissing match' because Ward Smith persistently makes unsubstantiated claims or posts links which half the time actually contradicts what he is saying (Ex - 5 posts back).

Of course if I, or anyone else challenges him, backed up with evidence this is simply refuted as fraudulent and backed up with nothing more than his (unsubstantiated) claim to have been the Vice president of any company that happens to have been involved in the subject of discussion whatever that is

[NickW + 2,714]

15 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Much as you like to peacock strut, you're not at my level and never will be. I've DESIGNED semiconductors and was a senior vice president of a semiconductor company. I've forgotten more about how these work then you'll ever learn, so quit your braying. 

Again you're grasping at straws but I see the disconnect. I look at these from my background as discreet devices. You look at these from your (non existent) background as functional modules. What's inside those modules are tons and tons of constantly failing discrete components that are highly paralleled Because they're going to fail. The fault vectors are legion and the paper I posted for your edification lists many of them. A test jig setup will clearly show degradation at my number. Vendors hedge by de rating the output much as Marantz amplifiers cheated back in the day by pretending their 140 watt amplifier was only 100 watts to give them a better THD number at "rated" output. 

The vendor I spoke of would not include you, but the typical sales/installer guarantee. Those guys are gone, they disappear on a regular basis BECAUSE of warranties. As it is, should you wish to return your panels under warranty, it won't happen because you're not "a qualified installer".

Personally I don't need to be.

Connecting a few wires and plugging in a plug in grid tie inverter may challenge the limits of some peoples intelligence but this task is well within my abilities in the same way that I don't need an electrician to wire a plug, insert a light bulb  or even run a spur off my ring main.

[NickW + 2,714]

Another Primary study

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/pip.2903

Degradation rate over 3 years measured at 2% - so 0.667% per annum.

[Happy Go Lucky + 25]

On 5/6/2019 at 11:29 AM, NickW said:

For a domestic installation there are a variety of practical ways to switch usage to times when the solar is working to make better use of direct solar power

Put Refrigeration units on a timeswitch. A freezer can be switched off over night - say 02:00 to 09:00 to shift that demand to day time Switch a refrigerator off at 5:00 and back on at 9:00. 

Put other other charging devices on a timeswitch and charge in the day time. 

Divert surplus solar to water heating

" Put Refrigeration units on a timeswitch. A freezer can be switched off over night - say 02:00 to 09:00 to shift that demand to day time Switch a refrigerator off at 5:00 and back on at 9:00. "

" Put other other charging devices on a timeswitch and charge in the day time. "

I guess I was ahead of time - I'm not a whole-hog part of the renewable energy crowd but I've been using timers on my freezers since 2006 as a result of a power outage that caused a re-think of if a freezer needed to run 24 hrs a day  ( It don't ) 😎

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

4 hours ago, NickW said:

Personally I don't need to be.

Connecting a few wires and plugging in a plug in grid tie inverter may challenge the limits of some peoples intelligence but this task is well within my abilities in the same way that I don't need an electrician to wire a plug, insert a light bulb  or even run a spur off my ring main.

You are a tiresome child. Rodent asked you to knock it off and you added 4 more posts? Let me guess, when mommy drives you someplace do you incessantly ask, "Are we there yet"?

Installation of photovoltaic modules involves more than, "plugging it in", although to one with limited intellect that is apparently all there is to it. The modules must be installed at the proper angle, with the proper clearances. Heat is the number one killer of these devices. A study on brand new designs is unpersuasive since I talked about legacy systems in the real world. I can post pictures here of abandoned utility scale PV installations, but I'm confident you'll still whine, "we're not there yet".

Sold the company for a handsome profit. I'm set for life but still invest and am often engaged with my investment companies. You apparently have plenty of time on your hands to post innumerable missives. If my browser has a way to block you I will. Hasta la vista

[Rodent + 1,424]

The Rodent is displeased