U.S. and Turkey

I hear sabre-rattling from Ankara. Anyone willing to make a guess where this piece of drama is heading?

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Turkey will not be admitted to the European Union. That has always been their dream, and Erdogan is shredding that.

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1 hour ago, Jan van Eck said:

Turkey will not be admitted to the European Union. That has always been their dream, and Erdogan is shredding that.

I agree with you , Turkey will not be admitted and any concessions they have earned towards that is being eroded and will be eroded.

Turkey may try to flex its muscles by using the Bosporus Straits and the BTC Pipeline and the somewhat operational Kirkuk Ceyhan pipeline, as bargaining chips, but I dont think they will win much goodwill. Turkey may get sidelined and not recover for a long time economically and politically.

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Turkey will be kicked out of NATO and who, with no natural allies in the region, will fall into the clutches of Russia who will play savior from the West a la Iran. In reality Russia will play Turkey to achieve its national interests, again similar to what it does to Iran.

Longer term Russia will affect the dismemberment of Turkey with assist from Kurds, Israel, and US.

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12 hours ago, Marina Schwarz said:

I hear sabre-rattling from Ankara. Anyone willing to make a guess where this piece of drama is heading?

Nowhere. Who would they attack? 

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I never said attack. I meant a worsening of bilateral relations.

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(edited)

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

Nowhere. Who would they attack? 

There could be a very powerful social unrest and civil disobedience, a large part of the Turkish population isnt happy with Erdogan's power grabs over the past several years. The conditions created by internal strife and discord coupled with external input may just cause a political power change. Who knows he may step down after seeing the level of discord and not wanting to create a bigger mess. Turkey will be left isolated financially, politically and regionally. KSA already doesnt like Turkey right now, Jordan will go along with KSA, as would GCC members. Egypt will go along with KSA. Russia will more than likely influence the former Soviet republics in shutting off oil flow through the BTC, even without Russian influence, the Caspian and regional oil producers may very well be enticed by KSA to do that to an extent. Turkey has problems with the Kurds and the other 2 regional players who are themselves in situations and wont try to make waves. Israel will side with the others to see the Turkish firebrand subdued to whatever extent. Turkey will find itself very isolated. EU wont help.

 

 

Edited by ceo_energemsier
adding info
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8 hours ago, shadowkin said:

Longer term Russia will affect the dismemberment of Turkey with assist from Kurds, Israel, and US.

Which is exactly what Russia is attempting to do with Ukraine, except there, they have no assist from any of the players you cite.  Watch out for Putin; he is not your friend. 

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1 hour ago, Jan van Eck said:

Which is exactly what Russia is attempting to do with Ukraine, except there, they have no assist from any of the players you cite.  Watch out for Putin; he is not your friend. 

Putin is Putin's friend and no one else's 

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15 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Which is exactly what Russia is attempting to do with Ukraine, except there, they have no assist from any of the players you cite.  Watch out for Putin; he is not your friend. 

He's not our friend but where our interests converge there's no reason not to cooperate with Russia. International relations isn't about friends, it's about interests. Regarding Turkey there is a shared interest in weakening that country.

In Ukraine that isn't the case but it's still true that having Russian resources tied down there in stalemate does have its benefits for us.

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Gobble Gobble, Turkey is starting to feel it!!!

__________________

Supramax and Handysize ferrous scrap metal freight rates fell this week, as cargo enquiries from the Continent and Baltic markets dwindled.

Lengthening spot tonnage lists from Friday onwards compounded the problem, as shipowners were forced to compete more fiercely on price for the remaining cargo stems.

Time charter rates on both Supramax and Handysize dry bulk vessels were pegged between $8,500/d and $9,500/d by market participants Thursday, down from more than $10,000/d at the beginning of May.

“On Monday shipowners were still asking $12,000-$13,000 DOP Continent for a scrap trip to the East Mediterranean on Ultramax,” a scrap charterer said Thursday. “Today it seems every Supramax or Ultramax is willing to take $10,000-$11,000/d and possibly less.”

TURKISH DECLINE

Turkey, the world’s largest importer of scrap metal, has struggled to buy cargoes in 2019 due to a weak lira and a troubled political landscape.

Turkish steelmakers in the first quarter imported around 1.5 million mt less scrap than they did in Q1 2018, down 27.6%, as mills struggle to sell their finished products both in the domestic and export markets.

S&P Global Platts Rotterdam to Aliaga 40,000 mt scrap route was assessed Thursday down 75 cents at $14.75/mt, while the Rotterdam to Aliaga 30,000 mt scrap route was assessed $1 lower at $18/mt.

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Only a matter of time before either Turkey gets a new leader or they get kicked out of NATO into the Russian camp.

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On 5/7/2019 at 9:22 PM, Marina Schwarz said:

I hear sabre-rattling from Ankara. Anyone willing to make a guess where this piece of drama is heading?

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