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James Regan

Libyan situation getting worse, ISIS attack oil facility

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3 hours ago, James Regan said:

Libya produces <1% of the world's oil; I don't think that's enough to threaten anything.  It's certainly not "threatening" in a world where oil stocks are increasing, shale production can immediately accelerate, and new technology/changing behavior could immediately destroy demand. 

If Libya stopped producing today, would oil prices increase?  Sure. 
Would the price increase be distinguishable from business-as-usual volatility?  Doubtful. 
How would prices and markets actually respond?  Permanent loss of Libya would firm up the floor on oil prices, which might encourage investment elsewhere. 

Bottom line: if Libya disappeared from the face of the earth, few people would notice.  Even fewer would care. 

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