Another surprise 'build'

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Just laying on the couch and thought I'd catch up on the news. I see that we have yet another 'surprise' build in US storage...what a surprise!

As I have said before, so many 'surprise' builds and draws would make anyone in academia conclude that the model is inaccurate. 

[butasha + 123]

I am by no means an expert on anything oil related other than depositing my royalty checks each month. With that said I am concerned with the price of oil and wonder just how these measurements are actually taken.

 If this measurement is performed at specific time point and if a VLCC carries over 2 million barrels of oil isnt It possible that this build could be a deficit if just one VLCC was loaded with oil  prior to the measurement or a build if just one was unloaded a day later?

[Rodent + 1,424]

1 hour ago, butasha said:

I am by no means an expert on anything oil related other than depositing my royalty checks each month. With that said I am concerned with the price of oil and wonder just how these measurements are actually taken.

 If this measurement is performed at specific time point and if a VLCC carries over 2 million barrels of oil isnt It possible that this build could be a deficit if just one VLCC was loaded with oil  prior to the measurement or a build if just one was unloaded a day later?

If you're referring to the EIA, it is not actual data. It is an estimate of an estimate. Or better said, an extrapolation of an estimate. More here:

 

[butasha + 123]

4 minutes ago, Rodent said:

If you're referring to the EIA, it is not actual data. It is an estimate of an estimate. Or better said, an extrapolation of an estimate. More here:

 

So basically it is an educated guess or an opinion. Too bad, was hoping this was some form of actual data.

Thanks for the information.

[Rodent + 1,424]

55 minutes ago, butasha said:

So basically it is an educated guess or an opinion. Too bad, was hoping this was some form of actual data.

Thanks for the information.

If you want another data source to monitor, Tanker trackers compiles data on this as well. 

https://tankertrackers.com/

you can also follow Sam Madani and Lisa Ward, the founders of Tankertrackers.

[wrs + 893]

2 hours ago, butasha said:

I am by no means an expert on anything oil related other than depositing my royalty checks each month. With that said I am concerned with the price of oil and wonder just how these measurements are actually taken.

 If this measurement is performed at specific time point and if a VLCC carries over 2 million barrels of oil isnt It possible that this build could be a deficit if just one VLCC was loaded with oil  prior to the measurement or a build if just one was unloaded a day later?

I believe that the EIA data is collected via a survey of storage facilities each week.  The VLCC point is a good one and where you see the biggest variation usually is in PADD3 which is the Gulf Coast refinery complex and includes the LOOP where VLCCs are offloaded.  So the inventory figure on a weekly basis is noise as are the production data. 

No producer reports production on a weekly basis to anyone other than internally.  The RRC gets 30 day delayed production information from operators and so that weekly production data that EIA produces is just guesstimates and of course it's also rounded up or down to the nearest 100kbbl/day which means that up 100 and then back down 100 as we saw the last two weeks is meaningless.  Clearly the increase this week is just making clear that the decrease last week was a wrong guess.  It's noise until all the actual production data has been reported officially at the end of this month but that will only be for April production.

[butasha + 123]

Great information everyone. Thanks!