My Rebuttal to: Trump’s Multi-Front War That Spooks Oil Markets

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

1 hour ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

As long as life is shitty in some places and better in others people will find ways to get to the better places. Walls or no walls. It is just a fact.

And you base this on what expertise in the field of border security? 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,131]

1 hour ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

As long as life is shitty in some places and better in others people will find ways to get to the better places. Walls or no walls. It is just a fact.

So?  Why nations have borders and often have to kill some people so the message gets out.  Facts of life.  The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence.  How is this new?

[D Coyne + 305]

5 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

Would it not be best to counter the leftist agenda with facts and correct analysis? 

Of course not.

[D Coyne + 305]

5 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

It seems to me that controlling their Southern border - the current source of most illegal immigrants - would save Mexico some money.  If so, then Trump's tariffs give Mexico an incentive to do the obvious. 

I would suggest that it is up to Mexico to decide what is best for Mexico, no Mexican voted for Donald Trump for president, if Mexicans believe it is important to reduce the free movement of people through their nation they will elect representatives to make that a reality.

 

[D Coyne + 305]

3 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Watch how fast Mexico will magically be able to do something to improve the situation when they get slapped with 25% tariffs.

Time to stop rewarding bad behavior.

Severe reality adjustment is needed.  Change the mindset and watch how fast action takes place.

Pic related.

 

Tom,

This is likely to hurt the US economy just as much as Mexico.  Oh, you do realize that illegal immigrants don't vote, right?

[Rodent + 1,424]

11 minutes ago, D Coyne said:

Tom,

This is likely to hurt the US economy just as much as Mexico.  Oh, you do realize that illegal immigrants don't vote, right?

No? They certainly do in San Francisco and a handful of other cities (for local elections). It's just a matter of time before that is extended to other cities/federal elections.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

8 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

It is a lousy idea.

...

There is a big difference between putting up tariffs against Chinese products, than to do that to Mexican products.  Trump does not grasp that.  He is attempting to use his one size fits all formula.  Trump is not a sophisticated man.  What he is doing is stumbling around looking for a solution, and his ridiculous aides and advisors continue to cater to dumb ideas and push the Administration down dark paths that will hurt Americans.  You really don't want to get entrapped in all that. 

Correct.

I'm sure the people around trump are required to thank him when he farts and tell him how good it smells.

"Thank you.  I take the best farts.  Nobody farts like me. Huge, huge farts."

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

3 hours ago, Wastral said:

  The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence.  How is this new?

Not for me! 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,131]

3 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

Correct.

I'm sure the people around trump are required to thank him when he farts and tell him how good it smells.

"Thank you.  I take the best farts.  Nobody farts like me. Huge, huge farts."

Bigly farts; Bigly farts

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

2 hours ago, Rodent said:

No? They certainly do in San Francisco and a handful of other cities (for local elections). It's just a matter of time before that is extended to other cities/federal elections.

Almost like they are people. 

 

Joking, sorta.

[Rodent + 1,424]

1 minute ago, Enthalpic said:

Joking, sorta.

I hope so. That's ridiculous. Someone said illegal immigrants couldn't vote. I pointed out they could. Those are the facts. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

2 minutes ago, Rodent said:

I hope so. That's ridiculous. Someone said illegal immigrants couldn't vote. I pointed out they could. Those are the facts. 

You don't want a global democracy? One person one vote?

Man that would suck for me... Canada has no people and would get no representation.

[John Foote + 1,135]

8 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

It is a huge Mexican problem because of all the criminal gangs that bring US guns into Mexico, to shoot Mexican policemen and judges.  Don't kid yourself that this is one-sided.  The Mexicans are effectively helpless to fight it head-on. They do not have the resources, and the US is not helpful. 

Not to mention we're the ones consuming the drugs. Jail time and criminalization just doesn't work. Morally we wish punishment would work, it hasn't and it doesn't. A bit like being against abortions and cutting back on providing proper sex education free birth control. The countries with lowest rates allow it, but thru education and social norms it becomes rare. With the punishment and illegality does make the cost of the drugs a profitable business. And my has it destabilized a lot of Mexico. Really hasn't helped several of the producer countries either. But you get this symbiotic relationship between countries that makes it worse in pretty much all directions. It's hard, but to be effective in fixing you need to detach from the morality. Glad my kids didn't go down my path. Good old alcohol is the family sin, but it's in the older generation in my family that struggles.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

10 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

 It is crippled by criminal gangs, mostly who smuggle people and drugs into the USA for that huge market, that gulps dope like some gasping guppy, which makes Americans themselves the prime mover for mexico's many problems.  Those same criminal gangs also buy and smuggle large numbers of firearms from the US Southwest back into Mexico, where they are used to murder policemen, judges, rival gang members, young women (after raping them), citizens who resist their predations, and even American border policemen.  At one point some US Federal Agency, I recall it to be the BATF, even was the organized supplier of those guns! 

 

+1

Canadians love to fly there for all-you-can-eat-and-drink hedonism.

Day trip to Tijuana anyone? 

They should probably wall us out.

Edited June 3, 2019 by Enthalpic

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

3 hours ago, D Coyne said:

Tom,

This is likely to hurt the US economy just as much as Mexico.  Oh, you do realize that illegal immigrants don't vote, right?

Illegal immigrants do vote in U.S. elections.  Some local (Democrat) governments have advised illegal immigrants how to vote.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

4 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

So Mexico has a problem.  Is it that they can't fix it, or that they won't fix it?  Is the Mexican government actually cooperating with the cartels because it brings money into the country?  If so, tariffs will fix this problem by giving the Mexican people as a whole an incentive to stop the drug running. 

Meanwhile, the US is perfectly capable of defending a border - should it choose to do so.  It would also be capable of invading parts of Mexico to root out the gangs.  If Mexico is "unable" to maintain their own sovereignty, wouldn't this be a reasonable course of action? 

My response Part 1.

Mexico refuses to fix it, and is actively creating the illegal immigrant problem.

Quote below from Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) in June 2018"

“And soon, very soon — after the victory of our movement — we will defend all the migrants in the American continent and all the migrants in the world,” Obrador said, adding that immigrants “must leave their towns and find a life in the United States.”  He then declared it as “a human right we will defend.”

 

====================================

Pay attention to this article from May 31st:

Mexican President Lopez-Obrador Asks for Emergency Meeting Friday

AMLO knows there is no way for Mexico to begin retaliating against the U.S. after President Trump demanded they step-up migration travel enforcement or face U.S. tariffs on Mexican imports.  There’s no way for Mexico to take on Trump economically; and they would be foolish to try…  All business interests in Mexico will take a financial hit as soon as the stock market opens tomorrow: [Tweet Link]

No doubt Mexican Foreign Minister Jesus Seade will reach out to Jared Kushner for relief/assistance; but don’t look for President Trump to change on this issue until he sees substantive actions taking place.  Trump knows AMLO has a tendency to play political games with immigration; he’s made hollow promises before; and now Jesus Seade is in a very tenuous position.

 

 

FLASHBACK June 2018 …  Interestingly, people now started to take notice because AMLO is openly telling his fellow countrymen they must flood the U.S. border.

(From the Daily Caller) […] “And soon, very soon — after the victory of our movement — we will defend all the migrants in the American continent and all the migrants in the world,” Obrador said, adding that immigrants “must leave their towns and find a life in the United States.”  He then declared it as “a human right we will defend.”

Most political observers read this and think it sounds crazy. They make comparisons to a U.S. presidential candidate telling Americans to flee to Canada (Daily Wire example). That type of perspective shows a disconnect.  The paradigm, and frame of reference, is entirely wrong.

What AMLO was saying in 2018 was not a surprise, nor is it an ideological proclamation; there is an actual strategic policy behind these statements.  This has been AMLO’s strategy for years, and no-one was paying attention.   Andrés Manuel López Obrador has long proposed a key economic plan for Mexico to become wealthy. However, his idea has only recently gained broad mainstream Mexican understanding.

Conservative U.S. media have no idea; but Democrats, activists and far-left immigration radicals certainly do. AMLO has thought this through, and he has seen the mistakes made by allies in Cuba and Venezuela.

AMLO has an economic plan where hundreds-of-thousands of his fellow Mexicans flood the Southern U.S. border region; overwhelm the system and essentially create an initial border economy; then, with the door and pathway created, begin a process of exfiltration of U.S. economic wealth directly into Mexico.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador is not crazy; he has a pretty ingenious strategy.

Through overwhelming the Southern border regions, the nation of Mexico will be able to influence local U.S. laws and overwhelm the local U.S. political structures.  The Ameri/Mex zone penetrates into the U.S. and provides a borderless opening for migration, trade, commerce and the education of Mexican citizens through the utilization of U.S. social and economic systems.

All of the long-held grievances of Mexican nationals toward the disparity of their level of poverty and the wealth within the United States can be fixed through this plan. ...

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

5 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

So Mexico has a problem.  Is it that they can't fix it, or that they won't fix it?  Is the Mexican government actually cooperating with the cartels because it brings money into the country?  If so, tariffs will fix this problem by giving the Mexican people as a whole an incentive to stop the drug running. 

Meanwhile, the US is perfectly capable of defending a border - should it choose to do so.  It would also be capable of invading parts of Mexico to root out the gangs.  If Mexico is "unable" to maintain their own sovereignty, wouldn't this be a reasonable course of action? 

My response part 2.

Agreed with you BenFranklin'sSpectacles that tariffs should provide the cash flow incentive to change behavior and fix the problem.

Really, most of Mainstream Media ignores the obvious and actively provides disinformation. Here's a recent article that actually nails it:

President Trump Question: “Are the Drug Lords, Cartels & Coyotes really running Mexico?”

Oh, he’s done it again… President Trump spotlights the truth that everyone prefers to  avoid discussing: “Are the Drug Lords, Cartels & Coyotes really running Mexico?”

Everyone knows the truthful answer to that question is a resounding YES, Mexico is a narco-state controlled by drug cartels and political system of bribes and payoffs therein.

The most recent evidence was in testimony within the El Chapo Guzman trial, where witnesses testified to paying-off government officials, including the former President of Mexico:

Reuters – Accused Mexican drug lord Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman once paid a $100 million bribe to former Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto, a former associate testified on Tuesday that he previously told U.S. authorities. (link)

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

8 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Mexico is a narco-state controlled by drug cartels and political system of bribes and payoffs therein.

Silver or lead? Not from Mexico, but Escobar was epic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pablo_Escobar

"70 to 80 tons of cocaine were being shipped from Colombia to the United States every month." Tons per month...

[TomTom + 183]

12 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Many of the weapons utilized by the various criminal gangs are not even available in the US.

These gangs are more interested in military type weapons (selective fire rifles, combat handguns and RPG's), they generally could care less about shotguns and rifles designed for hunting or revolvers.

Furthermore, they need to buy in bulk and the weapons they purchase need to shoot an identical cartridge to make the purchase of ammunition in bulk easier.

These gangs/cartels have the cash to purchase from the international arms dealers.

It's absolutely no secret that the vast majority of guns used by the narcos here in Mexico come from the US.  

Most gang related violence here continues because North-Americans can't kick the habit of using copious amounts of cocaine and meth.  


Re trade war: 

For two interwoven economies like the US and Mexico, tariffs are disastrous. Mexico would need to deploy its entire army in the border regions in order to stop most of the illegal immigration into the US, meaning that other parts of Mexico would become much more unsafe... 

The fact that the 'greatest country in the world' with the largest defense budget in the world can't stop illegal immigrants on their own soil says enough. How can you expect a much less developed, corrupt nation to stop immigration while you can't even stop it with high tech and thousands of CBP agents... now ask yourself that question before you start impacting both economies with poorly developed economic policies.

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

12 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

It seems to me that controlling their Southern border - the current source of most illegal immigrants - would save Mexico some money.  If so, then Trump's tariffs give Mexico an incentive to do the obvious. 

And you base this on what expertise in the field of Mexicos economy?

[TomTom + 183]

8 minutes ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

And you base this on what expertise in the field of Mexicos economy?

I've been to several places on southern Mexico border and I can assure you that there is absolutely no way you can control that entire jungle on the border of Guatemala and Mexico. Next to that, the illegal immigrants aren't really a major strain on Mexico's economy. A bigger strain would be the 'poor' US retirees that don't pay health insurance in the US and instead leech of the seguro popular system here in Mexico. Prove me wrong on that one....

[Rodent + 1,424]

6 hours ago, TomTom said:

I've been to several places on southern Mexico border and I can assure you that there is absolutely no way you can control that entire jungle on the border of Guatemala and Mexico. Next to that, the illegal immigrants aren't really a major strain on Mexico's economy. A bigger strain would be the 'poor' US retirees that don't pay health insurance in the US and instead leech of the seguro popular system here in Mexico. Prove me wrong on that one....

 

6 hours ago, TomTom said:

It's absolutely no secret that the vast majority of guns used by the narcos here in Mexico come from the US.  

Most gang related violence here continues because North-Americans can't kick the habit of using copious amounts of cocaine and meth.  


Re trade war: 

For two interwoven economies like the US and Mexico, tariffs are disastrous. Mexico would need to deploy its entire army in the border regions in order to stop most of the illegal immigration into the US, meaning that other parts of Mexico would become much more unsafe... 

The fact that the 'greatest country in the world' with the largest defense budget in the world can't stop illegal immigrants on their own soil says enough. How can you expect a much less developed, corrupt nation to stop immigration while you can't even stop it with high tech and thousands of CBP agents... now ask yourself that question before you start impacting both economies with poorly developed economic policies.

Never going to solve the drug problem by focusing on Mexico. It is merely the path, and nearly impossible to control that whole path.

Instead, glyphosate herbicide over Colombia. Entire Colombia. 

this will go a long way to cleaning up Mexico by default, and if Mexico is more habitable, we may see fewer immigrants from them. 

The only reason why we, the greatest country on Earth, can't control its immigrant problems is because our government is too busy trying to get reelected and too busy arguing staunchly across party lines. Any other government would have a much better chance of taking care of it since they can just make it so without 5000 hours of Senate bickering only to come up short again. 

 

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

4 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

And you base this on what expertise in the field of Mexicos economy?

I base that on the understanding that having millions of destitute squatters in one's country is never a good thing.  Mexico would benefit from closing its Southern border, except the cartels wouldn't prefer that.  Trump is piling on incentives until Mexico decides to fix the problem. 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

We seem to now be discussing two separate, but related issues; illegal drugs and illegal immigration. The thread connecting the two issues is American affluence.

A previous commenter noted the amount of illegal drugs used in America as a percent of the global drug trade. This is simply due to the fact that Americans are economically better positioned to purchase these drugs. Cartels do not target poor countries. The same could be said for Western Europe and the drugs coming out of Afghanistan and that region.

Illegal immigration stems from the same affluence. The poor and downtrodden migrate towards the more affluent countries as can be seen by the waves of illegal immigrants flooding Southern Europe from North Africa, Africa and the Middle East as well as the situation on the US border with Mexico.

In regards to the drug problem in the US, you cannot approach it from an affluence perspective. The 'hard drugs' are illegal and need to be addressed by the law enforcement community. On the Mexican side, they need to admit that, by default, the narco-traffickers are the shadow government AND that historically they cannot bring them to heel. Perhaps they need to ask their neighbors to assist them and to start treating the narcos like ISIS was recently treated. To ignore the issue is to let it fester and spread.

The illegal immigration issue can, and should, be addressed from the affluence perspective. If the illegal immigrants knew that, without a doubt, there were no jobs available once they crossed the border AND that amnesty would be strictly controlled AND that the 'anchor baby' loophole was closed...they would likely stop making the attempt.

This would require that the US impose hefty, damaging fines for any and all businesses found to be hiring illegal aliens. Furthermore the US would need to implement that anyone caught crossing illegally would be immediately returned, as a family unit if applicable, to their country of origin and would be put on a list and never granted admission in the future. The rest would not be admitted into the US and by default held in Mexico and become a Mexican problem. Keep in mind that the Mexicans allowed the immigrants to traverse their country knowing full well what the immigrants were up to. Mexico is culpable.

Someone earlier brought up that Mexico is not able to patrol and secure the jungles and difficult terrain on their Southern border. This is true, but the caravans of thousands of immigrants, including women and children, are not infiltrating via the jungle! They are walking the highways and riding trains!

Finally, the US and Mexico need to figure out who is financing these caravans. Moving thousands of people, hundreds of miles, takes a serious amount of cash. It is similar to moving an army division that distance. Where does the food, water, medical services, etc... come from? As in any serious criminal investigation 'follow the money'.

It is grossly unfair to the American people, who have built the country into what it is today, warts and all, to let illegal aliens into the country to leech off of a system which they have never contributed to.

As a parting note, whose job is it to 'fix' the countries the illegals are leaving?

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,131]

7 hours ago, Rodent said:

Never going to solve the drug problem by focusing on Mexico. It is merely the path, and nearly impossible to control that whole path.

Instead, glyphosate herbicide over Colombia. Entire Colombia. 

this will go a long way to cleaning up Mexico by default, and if Mexico is more habitable, we may see fewer immigrants from them. 

The only reason why we, the greatest country on Earth, can't control its immigrant problems is because our government is too busy trying to get reelected and too busy arguing staunchly across party lines. Any other government would have a much better chance of taking care of it since they can just make it so without 5000 hours of Senate bickering only to come up short again.

Has very little to do with feds.  Rather the border states themselves.  Each individual state could build the wall tomorrow if they so chose but want the $$$ from the rest of the nation... and the problem is all the loser druggies in the rest of the nation for the most part(other than CA which is druggie central).  You literally cannot walk anywhere in a CA city without being harassed for drugs.  Far as I am concerned, deadly Fentanal is one of the best things that has happened in the drug culture war.  Stopping the druggies from pulling everyone else down with their selfish cowardly asses is a good thing, but not if you are selling drugs.

Kill the drug dealers.  If you do not want to die you can 1) give up your drug dealer source and get a 10 year sentence or 2) not deal drugs. 

The Fed problem is that over half the country wants to remain selfish, greedy cowards with its rock and roll drug culture.  Hedonism plain and simple has its own "rewards".  Ask China how they solved their own Hedonism drug problem in the 19th century when they were the 2nd richest nation on earth and falling apart.