My Rebuttal to: Trump’s Multi-Front War That Spooks Oil Markets

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On 6/7/2019 at 6:01 PM, Jan van Eck said:

That was then.  This is now.  The process and the procedures have dramatically changed.  Now, as a practical matter, nobody comes in, unless you are a parent or child of an existing US person.  Ordinary outside  workers?  Not much.

The refusal of Congress (and the President, of course) to engage in immigration reform has led to this complete mess.  The only person who seems to like the current mess is Mr. Trump, as it gives him a ready-made excuse to yell at the Democrats,  tweet out hysterical rabble-rousing, and chant at his rallies.  Trump himself has no real concerns about undocumented migrants.  He married one, and he hired lots on his Queens, NY construction projects.  Everything you hear on the TV is totally cynical.  

Jan,

I agree to an extent about the process and procedures need to be overhauled, upgraded and need to catch up with the demand and need tech for that as well and more human resources, and Congress for decades has kicked the can down the road because they are so afraid of the backlash that they only do certain things and try to get the support of a certain block of voters.

If you look at any other country in the world that had not enforced their borders and immigration laws and just went along with the certain prevailing mood by the public are now and have suffered the consequences of the lack of action and we are seeing that happen here in the US. And you also look around the world, even in 3rd world countries their immigration laws are much more stringent and enforcement is carried out promptly. Take for example India and Pakistan, Thailand etc and even China , such a big economy.  And ofcourse Russia and the Mid East.

We still see plenty of qualified "workers" coming into the country, getting the proper and appropriate visas from around the world.

 

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53 minutes ago, ceo_energemsier said:

We still see plenty of qualified "workers" coming into the country, getting the proper and appropriate visas from around the world.

An H-1B visa is not going to be issued to some impoverished Mexican or Guatemalan seeking to do stoop labor in the ag sector. 

As you point out, he is not a "qualified worker."  The doors are closed to him. 

And that's fine by me, if you want to make it a national policy to block out field workers.  I invite you to ponder the implications.  Crops will rot in the fields, you can forget about lettuce, you can scrap the apple products in Washington, and you can abandon the dairy industry to the Canadians.  You can argue, "OK, we really don't need milk or yogurt or cheese, so forget about that cow milking," but that is the consequence of shutting down Hispanic farm labor.  As you point out, other countries such as India and Pakistan have closed borders.  The difference is that there, you have a limitless supply of stoop ag labor to go choose from, costs you basically nothing.  India alone has some 550 million peasants doing subsistence agriculture.  The USA?  Zero.  Literally zero.  We don't do subsistence peasants; we import them from Latin America, one way or the other. 

I invite you to ponder that. Cheers.

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1 hour ago, Enthalpic said:

You love trump no matter what he does - you wanted Mexico to pay. Mexico didn't pay for a wall, Mexico didn't pay any tariffs (related to this). All this required was two reasonable people to have a talk - aka diplomacy... thankfully one of his advisors must have helped.

Hot air blowhard with no substance - the world will listen less and less to the old man who cries wolf. 

For your consideration.  Excerpts below, but I recommend reading the entire article.

Trump Doctrine – Border and Migration Agreement With Mexico Likely to Produce Significant Results

The border and migration “agreement” with Mexico is a smart move by President Trump. If you worry that Mexico won’t take any action, well, don’t underestimate the dynamic President Trump just put into play.

Financial investment flows based on expectation, probability and risk management. If you don’t think Mexico will follow-up with their end of the bargain; then you are predicting the tariffs will reappear in 90-days.

Overlooked by most of the financial pundits President Trump has pre-positioned risk management actuaries with the basis for their analysis and internal investment advice. In a similar move last year, President Trump suspended tariffs against China based on an agreement (G20 summit in Argentina). After several months and a 150 page initial agreement of principle, China walked away from their prior promises and  terms.  The tariffs against China were immediately implemented at the previous rate.

That China example with tariffs is now the baseline for all multinational investment to consider as they review their current exposure in Mexico. If any financial investor (bank or corporation) believes Mexico will not adhere to the border/migration agreement, then by extension they are accepting/predicting the Mexican tariffs will take effect in 90-days.

Put another way… President Trump has just given notice to all global business interests to organize their financial affairs toward Mexico within 90 days.  ...

 

... Failure of the Mexican government to follow-through, isn’t as simple as breaking a political promise (ie. another broken promise etc.). This time if Mexico doesn’t follow-through, and if Trump does follow-through in 90 days, it’s not a political issue, it’s an economic issue.  In 90-days, the tenuous Mexican economy could collapse overnight.

This time it isn’t politics; or a broken political promise; no, this time it’s business. A high-stakes multi-billion business issue with multiple downstream consequences. That’s the difference with business-centric President Trump in the White House; he is not a politician.

It is easy to see the enforcement leverage President Trump just created.

This is what an apex business predator does to his/her economic or financial adversary. All the responsibility for action is on the other party. If Mexico fails, Trump wins. If Mexico succeeds, Trump wins. See how that works?  ...

 

... The pressure for action is no longer on POTUS. 100% of the responsibility is on Mexican President AMLO.  If the issue isn’t corrected quickly, in 90-days the tariffs start…. And go read Trump’s deal-making history, again referencing the China example…. He won’t start all over again at 5%, he’ll start right at the place he would have been in 90-days, 20%.

Now put yourself in the position of a CEO and/or CFO of a multinational corporation with structural investment in Mexico. [Foreign corporations, not just American business interests.] Those who stay will be vested in ensuring Lopez-Obrador follows through. ...

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(edited)

10 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

For your consideration.  Excerpts below, but I recommend reading the entire article.

You claim to hate the media but rarely use your own words... Tell me directly

"Left-leaning media" is BS - there is plenty of "right-leaning media" (which you gobble up) to balance it out.

Edited by Enthalpic
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17 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

and you can abandon the dairy industry to the Canadians. 

Awesome!

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Just now, Enthalpic said:

Awesome!

That would give you an excuse to abandon Supply Management, once and for all. :D

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9 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

That would give you an excuse to abandon Supply Management, once and for all. :D

..and the US would benefit from hormone free milk... like the rest of the developed world.

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1 minute ago, Enthalpic said:

..and the US would benefit from hormone free milk... like the rest of the developed world.

Yup, that's them Johnny Canucks:  hewers of wood, drawers of water, and milkers of cows!

Definite sociological advantages over 'Mericuns. 

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2 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

  hewers of wood

The last couple nights I've been sleeping in cedar country (Golden & Kelowna, BC)  Everything made of wood smells awesome.

Victoria by the night of the 10th - the island is heaven on earth.

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(edited)

55 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

The last couple nights I've been sleeping in cedar country (Golden & Kelowna, BC)  Everything made of wood smells awesome.

Victoria by the night of the 10th - the island is heaven on earth.

You might be surprised to learn that the B.C. forest products industry is in serious trouble, and not simply from forest fires.  Check out the Globe and Mail. 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-bcs-looming-crisis-a-forest-industry-in-peril/

https://www.kamloopsthisweek.com/news/the-domino-effect-of-a-mill-s-death-1.23847726

Edited by Jan van Eck
added links

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33 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

You claim to hate the media but rarely use your own words... Tell me directly

"Left-leaning media" is BS - there is plenty of "right-leaning media" (which you gobble up) to balance it out.

What happens when the left leaning media and the right leaning media agree? 

This article is from the Conservativetreehouse yet it quotes and agrees with the New York Times. Of course the NYT is loath to admit to some of the other details in the CTH, such as a sitting US congressman owning a business in China that is directly affected by Trump's policies. Why assume an American politician has America's interests at heart? 

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2 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Why assume an American politician has America's interests at heart? 

From what I can make of it, there are lots and lots of American politicians who participate in decision-making that does not advance American interests whatsoever, and they do not own any business in China nor anywhere else.  Those guys are just plain flat-out stupid (and arrogant, and insolent, and ridiculous.)  Lots of them around, also in lots of Statehouses. 

I invite you to look at Vermont, a true-blue Leftist fantasy State, complete with Bernie Sanders, the decades-long promoter of welfare politics.  The place is saturated with rural poverty, a true 24% unemployment rate (the government lies and says it is only 3.2%, a complete fantasy construct), and the Legislators spend vast amounts of time arguing about the signs on toilet doors being multi-sexual  (I forget what the politically correct term is:  "gender neutral?"  "LGBTQ compatible?"  Who knows.)  How you can have the insufferable arrogance and insolence to sit there and promote a "carbon tax" when the poor people already have the thermostat down to 50 degrees in the daytime and shut it down at night in winter because they have no job and no money, is just unreal.  Hey, get off your ass and get with the program, people are poor and need work.  What on earth is wrong with these people? 

Expanding the Tourism Sector as a driver for value.pdf

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1 hour ago, Enthalpic said:

You claim to hate the media but rarely use your own words... Tell me directly

"Left-leaning media" is BS - there is plenty of "right-leaning media" (which you gobble up) to balance it out.

1) You claim to hate the media

Not quite.  There is a difference between Mainstream Media and independent media.

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2) but rarely use your own words

Really?  I have hundreds of comments on this forum where I shoot my mouth off extensively, in my own long-winded commentary.  I'm a self described motormouth when it comes to oil & gas + its intertwined global politics.  But sometimes it is better in getting a point across by quoting others who are better wordsmiths than I am.

Also, my decades-long posting style is generally to use someone's else's article as a starting point, for me to then add my own views.

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3 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

I'm a self described motormouth when it comes to oil & gas + its intertwined global politics.

No dispute there!   Cheers, and we love you for it   :D

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1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

What happens when the left leaning media and the right leaning media agree? 

 

 

Nonpartisan rationalism.

 

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10 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

 

Nonpartisan rationalism.

 

Humans aren't rational beings, they're rationalizing beings

-Scott Adams

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14 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

You might be surprised to learn that the B.C. forest products industry is in serious trouble, and not simply from forest fires.  Check out the Globe and Mail. 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-bcs-looming-crisis-a-forest-industry-in-peril/

https://www.kamloopsthisweek.com/news/the-domino-effect-of-a-mill-s-death-1.23847726

The people in Golden didn't look like happy people. 

No obvious wealth, tired, dirty, industrial town (wood, rail terminal). People look and sound like they smoke a pack a day.  Joyless.

Revelstoke is not far from Golden and I think are doing much better because they loved the trees and did more tourism.  Stopped at the farmers market, wow fully organic hot babes everywhere.... Joyfull, because nature, and boobs.

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20 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

The people in Golden didn't look like happy people. 

No obvious wealth, tired, dirty, industrial town (wood, rail terminal). People look and sound like they smoke a pack a day.  Joyless.

Revelstoke is not far from Golden and I think are doing much better because they loved the trees and did more tourism.  Stopped at the farmers market, wow fully organic hot babes everywhere.... Joyfull, because nature, and boobs.

You should be aware that those "boobs" you reference are likely not natural at all.  They are the result of eating beef  (hamburgers) prepared from feedlot cattle, which in turn are exposed to large quantities of various steroidal preparations to force them to gain weight quicker.  Those compounds include the estrogen compound zeranol, the androgen trenbolone acetate, and progestin melengestrol acetate.  All these are potent endocrine disruptors. They (and the nonsteroidal compound diethylstilbestrol) are likely to cause serious health problems, including various cancers, which then in turn require aggressive treatments such as breast removal surgery.  These compounds have now been banned inside the EU, although I suspect they are commonly used in both the USA and Canada.   You can also get this result if your mom was eating these hamburgers while you were in fetus.

For male offspring, the result is dramatically decreased male sperm count, and the possibility of feminization, including breast enlargement. This stuff is not innocent.  These young girls that go eat at these fast-food places may unwittingly end up with lovely breasts, but then reap cervical cancers or breast removal surgeries later in life. It can even kill you. 

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(edited)

On 6/7/2019 at 5:29 PM, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

I don't think you understand current US politics; perhaps we should talk about that more? 

Probably not. It has been more than 15 years since I left the US and I have only been back for visits since. I understand that the eroding of US manufacturing jobs really accellerated after I left. 

 

On 6/7/2019 at 5:29 PM, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

Trump is aligned with his constituents because he needs them to get re-elected.  That's how politics work.  The relationship between Trump and his base is not based on mutual love, a sense of duty, or a desire to do the right thing.  It's based on Trump seeing an advantage for himself in championing his constituents' cause, and his constituents seeing an advantage in lifting him to power.  The US political system is no longer about what's best for the country; it's an all-out war between factions.  Trump was elected specifically because he's powerful, ruthless, and cunning.  He was elected because he revels in the battle and has no mercy.  His constituents want blood, and he's delivering. 

It is sad if this is true. Really. And I do NOT mean that in any condesending way. 

My impression was that there was a large group of people feeling dis-enfranchised and they believed (and I guess many still do) that Trump could restore the glory of old. We were seeing similar here in Europe, although the latest indications are that this is weakening. My personal take on this is that we have to distinguish between the long and the short term. I think that Trump (and European counterparts) have raised some issues that does need addressing, but instead of addressing these in a way such that they we solve the underlying issues most politicians go for the easy win

On 6/7/2019 at 5:29 PM, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

t's based on Trump seeing an advantage for himself in championing his constituents' cause,

what advantage do you think he sees? Serious question. 

Edited by Rasmus Jorgensen

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1 hour ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

It is sad if this is true. Really. And I do NOT mean that in any condesending way.

Sad?  Yes.  Unusual?  I don't think so.  Underneath the thin veneer of civility, I think this is how politics has always functioned - even in the US.  Our Founding Fathers were pointedly explicit about the evils of large government, the risk of corrupt politicians, and the need to decentralize power.  The United States is a giant, somewhat-failed experiment in decentralizing.  Oh well.  Maybe the next attempt will get a little closer. 

1 hour ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

My impression was that there was a large group of people feeling dis-enfranchised and they believed (and I guess many still do) that Trump could restore the glory of old. We were seeing similar here in Europe, although the latest indications are that this is weakening. My personal take on this is that we have to distinguish between the long and the short term. I think that Trump (and European counterparts) have raised some issues that does need addressing, but instead of addressing these in a way such that they we solve the underlying issues most politicians go for the easy win 

There is definitely a large, disenfranchised group.  Nearly half the country, actually. 

To some extent, Trump can restore the glory of old.  No, we can't change the crippling national debt, fix the public schools, or undo decades of rural decline - but we can stop pissing away what wealth & advantages we possess.  Tax reform put more money into productive hands.  Repealing the Affordable Care Act - which was an unaffordable abomination by design - was at least attempted.  Bringing the EPA to heel and focusing it on its original mission has restored some confidence in industry.  Paying attention to natural resource dependencies is good for national defense.  Giving the military funding to maintain equipment & training standards.  Appointing judges that respect the constitution is stamping out judicial activism.  Slowly establishing security at the borders.  You get the point.  Despite Trump's rhetoric, "restoring the glory of old" doesn't look like grandiose projects; it looks like boring, competent management.  It's doing a thousand little things to ensure the system runs smoothly. 

"Boring, competent management" is what Trump's voters want.  Yes, they were angry after decades of abuse.  Yes, there was some emotional release when Trump was elected.  Ultimately though, they just wanted competent management - and Trump is delivering. 

1 hour ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

what advantage do you think he sees? Serious question. 

I don't know how elite social circles function, but I imagine the presidency provides certain advantages to Trump's family.  Maybe it gets them access to information.  Maybe it opens the door to new social circles & business opportunities.  Maybe they got bored and wanted to try politics.  Maybe Trump just likes playing games, and this was the ultimate game.  I have no clue; best to just assume he has his reasons. 

On the other hand, he's made his fortune, his life was great, and he has nothing to prove.  Why would an aging billionaire want to endure constant abuse and a grueling schedule instead of playing golf?  The only compelling argument I've heard is that he's a father.  When fathers grow old, they start thinking about the world their children will live in.  It's possible Trump saw an undesirable future and resolved to fix it.  No doubt he enjoys playing the game and has his share of ruthless tendencies, but I wouldn't be surprised to learn that, underneath the shrewd businessman, he's trying to do some good. 

Whatever his motivation, it's working out well for us.  He doesn't need to have pure motives; he just needs to get the job done. 

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20 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

Whatever his motivation, it's working out well for us.  He doesn't need to have pure motives; he just needs to get the job done. 

Fair enough. 

What is your take on this long term vs short term? 

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20 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

"Boring, competent management" is what Trump's voters want

I find Trumps management style anything but boring.

p.s. If Bob Woodward is to be believed I also think that the competent management statement can be questioned. 

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20 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

Our Founding Fathers were pointedly explicit about the evils of large government, the risk of corrupt politicians, and the need to decentralize power.  

Whilst I agree that power corrupts I also believe that governements can do good. A lot depends on how we, voters, hold politicians to their promises and keep them in check. 

@Marina Schwarz once said that if you don't vote; you don't get to complain. At our recent parlimentary election voting percentage was 85%. At the EU election participation was 67%. Yet, lots of folks have opinions on the EU.... Why not exercise the democratic right. 

It easy always blaming others; and even easier always blaming government. 

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1 hour ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

At our recent parlimentary election voting percentage was 85%. At the EU election participation was 67%.

That's a truly impressive turnout, Rasmus. Good for you!

1 hour ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

It easy always blaming others; and even easier always blaming government. 

I think this could be the shortest and most telling description of humankind, fit for our collective gravestone when the time comes. They liked to blame others. I'm perfectly serious here. We really don't like to take responsibility, do we?

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3 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

I find Trumps management style anything but boring.

p.s. If Bob Woodward is to be believed I also think that the competent management statement can be questioned. 

When I discuss Trump with his voters, the most common sentiment is, "I like what he's doing, but I hate what he says."  I.e. they would prefer he be more boring. 

Of course, in the beginning, many of his voters were out for blood and enjoyed his style.  The impression I'm getting is that their anger has moderated, they're ready to move on with their lives, and they'd be quite content with boring.  I suppose that's what happens when the economy is good. 

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