Oil price and Saudi Arabia's Vision2030

[bill.law@thegulfmatters.co 0]

@CapEconEmerging reckons that oil will stay at $60 at least until end of the year. I wonder how many share that position? Further, and moving into the geopolitical/economic area, prices that hold at $60 will have a negative impact, I think, on  Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman's very ambitious, and thus far not particularly well realised, overhaul of the kingdom's economy Vision2030. Three years in and key areas of the plan are struggling, especially in creating a viable private sector that generates meaningful jobs (as opposed to largely non-productive public sector jobs) for young Saudis. MBS loves big ticket projects  ( eg NEOM and the Qiddiya entertainment city)but the meat and potatoes of affordable housing and well paid jobs in the private sector are still to be delivered on.  And I can only posit that oil holding at $60 will make delivery even more challenging and am curious to know what others think

[Naif Althaqafi 0]

I believe the main goal of the kingdom's economy Vision2030 is that Saudi Arabia wants to avoid relying on the oil which means they compensation the low revenue from oil. $40-45 Saudi Arabia can go with their vision smooth and stable. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

53 minutes ago, Naif Althaqafi said:

I believe the main goal of the kingdom's economy Vision2030 is that Saudi Arabia wants to avoid relying on the oil which means they compensation the low revenue from oil. $40-45 Saudi Arabia can go with their vision smooth and stable. 

Saudi Arabia may need oil prices closer to $90 or $100+ for many years in order to make any progress toward Vision 2030.

That seems unlikely to me.

Alternately, selling off a chunk of Aramco in an IPO to raise some temporary cash might be a temporary stopgap, but ...

1) again, seems unlikely to me, due to lack of transparency issues (state secrets of actual proven reserves) and

2) any Aramco IPO cash would likely be very quickly wasted via corruption and short term waste by Saudi royalty and sycophants.  Think of a worker who just got a huge pay raise cashing his paycheck and blowing most of it on partying with his friends, then waking up with a hangover and broke.  Now picture MBS and the Saudi princes doing something similar with Aramco IPO money.

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

On 6/7/2019 at 9:43 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

Saudi Arabia may need oil prices closer to $90 or $100+ for many years in order to make any progress toward Vision 2030.

That seems unlikely to me.

Alternately, selling off a chunk of Aramco in an IPO to raise some temporary cash might be a temporary stopgap, but ...

1) again, seems unlikely to me, due to lack of transparency issues (state secrets of actual proven reserves) and

2) any Aramco IPO cash would likely be very quickly wasted via corruption and short term waste by Saudi royalty and sycophants.  Think of a worker who just got a huge pay raise cashing his paycheck and blowing most of it on partying with his friends, then waking up with a hangover and broke.  Now picture MBS and the Saudi princes doing something similar with Aramco IPO money. 

Suppose oil prices stay below $60/bbl indefinitely, preventing SA from properly executing Vision 2030.  What happens to them? 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

6 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

Suppose oil prices stay below $60/bbl indefinitely, preventing SA from properly executing Vision 2030.  What happens to them? 

A few leaders get their height reduced by a head in chop chop square?

[Nevglobal 0]

Oil to drop to $50 and possible $45